Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 162209

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
309 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Upper level trough moving through the western U.S. this afternoon,
with mid level circulation forecast to slowly take shape over nrn
Baja California this evening. Surface cold front has pushed south
through the plains, with gusty north winds and slowly falling temps
behind the boundary. Overnight and Sunday, trough slowly pushes into
the Rockies, though most energy ends up with the upper level low
drifting eastward along the AZ/Mexico border by midday Sunday. Weak
NE winds on the plains overnight will likely lead to at least patchy
low clouds and fog east of I-25 by early Sun morning, though with
winds never swinging around to a more E-SE upslope component, lift
looks weak to non-existent and chance of any freezing drizzle should
be minor at best. Models have confirmed this trend, keeping just
some very light qpf mainly to the north over nern CO. Will keep some
fog and a slight chance of fzdz over the nrn fringe of the area,
with Palmer Dvd best bet to see any fog or very light fzdz as nly
upslope winds may generate some low clouds near the crest of the
divide. On Sunday, cooler air mass filters south across the region
as weak high pressure drops south through the plains during the day.
Maxes will run some 10-20f cooler than Sat, with mid/upper level
cloud shield helping to hold things down as well. Any precip chances
will unfortunately stay well south of the state, closer to the upper
level energy over srn AZ/NM.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Models still struggling with run to run consistency for the second
half of the extended period with regards to snowfall. But, one
thing is consistent, temperatures will fall by Thursday and remain
cold into the weekend.

Sunday night through upper system moving across
the Desert Southwest into Texas will give way to flat high
pressure aloft across Colorado. This will lead to dry conditions
and warming temperatures across the region. Expect afternoon highs
to reach the 50s on Monday, rising into the 60s by Wednesday. The
next upper system will begin to approach the Continental Divide
by Wednesday evening, with light snow moving into the Central
Mountains overnight.

Thursday...a strong upper level low is forecast to drop south out
of the Pacific Northwest, across the Desert Southwest and into
Texas by Friday. A very strong cold front will arrive on Thursday
morning bringing much colder air to the region. Models have come
in with higher amounts of precipitation across the area on
Thursday. Temperatures will be cold enough for all snow for most
of the area. Mountain areas will see the best chances for
accumulating snowfall, along with areas over the Palmer Divide and
west of I-25. Still waiting on models to have some consistency
before determining snow totals. Highs on Thursday will only reach
into the 30s, while overnight lows into Friday morning in the
single digits.

Friday into Saturday...heading into the weekend, northerly flow
will continue to usher cold air south across Colorado. Expect dry
conditions on Friday as the the upper system continues to move
away from the area. By Saturday, another shortwave trough will
drop south out of the Northern Rockies with a cold front across
the Plains. This system also has the potential to bring a quick
shot of snow to the area on Saturday. Temperatures Friday and
Saturday will only reach the 20s and 30s.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 248 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Could see some
stratus along the Palmer Dvd and across the Ark Valley east of KPUB
toward sunrise on Sun, but won`t include in tafs yet as latest model
data suggests rather lack of much upslope flow and only patchy
coverage of lower clouds. Areas east of I-25 on the plains around
KLAA and KLHX have a better chance of lower clouds, with a period of
MVFR to IFR cigs through mid morning.




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