Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 250521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1121 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Issued at 602 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Updated precipitation chances based on the latest radar trends.
Locations of the San Juan Range, southern San Luis Valley, east
into the southern I-25 corridor will continue to see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Right now,
satellite imagery reveals a pretty stable environment over the
Plains. As an upper level impulse moves across northern New
Mexico, it may trigger a few thunderstorms over the far Eastern
Plains this evening. High-res models are all continuing to
indicate this, so left low pops out east. Mozley


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Currently, air mass looks to be quite stable across the plains and
I-25 corridor, per satellite imagery.  There is some instability
noted across western sections and eastern mountains, which has not
been realized just yet.  Temperatures are in the 60s to mid 70s
across the plains and I-25 corridor, but the highest readings are
once again across the San Luis Valley.

Tonight, models again are differing on the scope of precipitation,
with the GFS much more aggressive with coverage and amount of
rain. The HRRR/NAM painting much less coverage, and still
overdoing it in the current midafternoon period. So will follow
the drier solution, and put in mostly isolated coverage with
scattered confined to highest terrain and Raton Mesa area
initially. Overnight, a low level jet gets going across the
panhandles into far southeast Colorado, so, as previously thought,
have some overnight showers, possible thunder across far
southeast into the morning.

Sunday, a similar weather pattern, with low level upslope flow
across the east and drier air and continue warm across the mountains
and high valleys.  With higher temperatures across the east, and an
uptick in moisture, instability will be greater, and coverage of
showers and storms looks to increase.  A good chunk of the plains
and I-25 corridor is outlooked for marginal severe storms. High
temperature should reach into the mid 70s to lowers 80s across the
lower terrain and San Luis Valley, with 50s and 60s across the
higher terrain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Active weather will likely continue through the extended period
with a brief break mid week as we see a break in the upper

Sunday night into Monday...expect showers and thunderstorms to be
ongoing across the region Sunday evening as an upper disturbance
passes across Colorado. The primary focus appears to be over the
Mountains, southeast into the Raton Ridge. A few showers and
thunderstorms are likely to spread across the Plains as well.
There may be one or two strong storms near the New Mexico border
during the evening hours with gusty outflow winds, lightning and
3/4 inch hail possible. This activity will shift south and east
overnight clearing southern Colorado by Monday morning.

Monday looks to be a repeat of Sunday, with another wave riding up
over the Desert Southwest ridge. Showers and thunderstorms will
once again fire over the Mountains during the afternoon hours, and
track southeast through the evening hours. Again, the primary
focus appears to be over the Mountains, southeast into the Raton
Ridge through the evening hours, clearing to the south and east
overnight. Instability looks less Monday afternoon, which should
keep storms from becoming strong or severe. Temperatures will
continue to warm with lower to mid 80s expected for highs.

Tuesday...the upper level pattern begins to shift with upper level
ridging move east into the Central Plains and more westerly zonal
flow sets up across the region. An upper disturbance is forecast
to move across Colorado by the afternoon. This will lead to the
development of showers and thunderstorms across the area,
initially over the mountains, spreading east into the I-25
corridor through the evening. Further east, models are suggesting
the potential for a dryline developing east of a La Junta to Kim
line. Instability and shear should be sufficient for one or two
cells to become strong to severe late in the afternoon into the
early evening. Large hail and gusty outflow winds will be the main
threats. Temperatures will be quite warm with lower to mid 90s
for highs.

Wednesday and upper trough is forecast to pass
across Montana and Wyoming with zonal westerly flow across
Colorado. Models have the primary focus for shower and
thunderstorm development being north of our CWA. Given the daytime
heating, would not be surprised if a few showers or thunderstorms
develop over the mountains, but they should be pretty isolated in
nature. The Eastern Plains look to remain dry. Temperatures will
reach the mid to upper 90s across the lower elevations both days.

Thursday night through Saturday...a strong cold front will push
south across Eastern Colorado Thursday night ushering in cooler
air across the region. The upper trough to the north will track
east into the Upper Midwest with broad northwesterly flow across
Colorado. Energy embedded in the flow will likely lead to
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms both Friday and
Saturday. Temperatures will also be cooler with 80s for highs.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB, although there will
be a BKN-OVC layer of could around 5000-7000 ft thru much of
Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon and evening there could be some
showers/tstms in the vicinity of KPUB and KCOS at times. KALS
should mostly have VFR conditions, however forecast soundings
indicate the potential for low stratus developing later tonight,
but chances are too low to include in the forecast at this time.
KALS could also see some showers/tstms in the area Sun afternoon
and evening.




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