Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 211046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
446 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING MID
LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
A BROAD TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A BROAD LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. UPPER AIR DATA IS ALSO
INDICATING A JETLET TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO SUPPORTING
ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO AND THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. AT THE SFC...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COOL AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH LATEST RUNS NOW
MOVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEASTERN NEVADA BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
MONDAY WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND OPENING UP INTO A BROAD TROUGH
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY 12Z MONDAY. AT ANY
RATE...SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MTS AND
PLAINS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING AS JETLET CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN MTS AS WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASES THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...MOIST
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND
GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM WITH DEVELOPING WAA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PWATS TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITH BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.15 INCHES PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WITH THE AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (UP
TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) AND THE EXPECTED SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
LEADING TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREA BURN SCARS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY...WITH TROUGH DRAGGING ACROSS COLORADO MON
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL
MOST LOCATIONS MON MORNING...THEN GRADUAL DRYING SPREADS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SW WITH TIME.
SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION MON
AFTERNOON...WITH BEST STORM CHANCES ALONG/AHEAD OF LEE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO THE EAST OF I-25. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40
KNOTS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS
THE PLAINS...THOUGH FORECAST INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL
WITH CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE. MAX TEMPS MON
SHOULD SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES MOST LOCATIONS AS
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...TEMPER THE WARM-UP
SOMEWHAT.

UPPER TROUGH PULLS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE AREA TUE TO LIMIT TSRA
CHANCES TO A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE
KS BORDER...AND WITH DRIER W-NW MID LEVEL FLOW SUSPECT CONVECTION
WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WEAKER THAN MONDAY`S STORMS. AS UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TUE AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TO RATHER WARM VALUES WITH 80S REAPPEARING ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WED/THU...THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRI...AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SOME
WEAK UPPER ENERGY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WED/THU...WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RE-FIRE A FEW TSRA OVER AREAS
ALONG THE NM BORDER BOTH DAYS. SLOWLY INCREASING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS/TEMPS AS RIDGE MIGRATES THROUGH THE AREA WILL SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS COLORADO INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. STILL SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING
EVENTUAL EJECTION OF THE DEEP WESTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
GFS FAST AND EUROPEAN SLOW...REALITY LIKELY IN BETWEEN. IN EITHER
CASE...MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...LEADING
TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER AT LEAST THE MOUNTAINS
FRI/SAT...WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS AND PUB...THOUGH COULD SEE
OCCASIONAL MVFR OR LOCAL IFR CIGS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE DEEPENS BEHIND A PASSING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR TO DIMINISH THOUGH THE
EARLY MORNING...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS POSSIBLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT
PLAINS...THOUGH WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE VCNTY OF TERMINALS FOR NOW.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED AT ALS...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



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