Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 010552
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1152 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THE BEST ACTIVITY WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW AREAS...WHILE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND I-25 CORRIDOR.  MOZLEY

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE MOUNTAINS...PALMER DIVIDE AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF NEAR 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND
PEA SIZE HAIL. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RAMP UP AGAIN
WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND VERY WARM TO HOT
CONDITIONS ARE COVERING LARGE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE LATE JUNE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES OVER MANY LOCATIONS...FOR EXAMPLE THE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT KPUB(PUEBLO) HAS BEEN
99F.  IN ADDITION...ISOLATED PRIMARILY WESTERN MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS PROJECTED
TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY 00Z THURSDAY...WHILE FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...REAL-TIME DATA...COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND PV ANALYSIS
INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WILL PUSH
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CANT DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THEN ANTICIPATED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.  HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NOTED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
WEDNESDAY.

FINALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER ABOVE
SEASONAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED
TONIGHT WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...ACTIVE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY...DRIER FOR THE JULY 4TH
WEEKEND...HINTS OF THE MONSOON STARTING TO SHOW UP NEXT WEEK...

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE BUSY IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT AS SEVERAL
FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER ON THIS DAY TO PRODUCE A ACTIVE WEATHER
DAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE COMING DOWN EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AND IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...FEW TO
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE UP SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONLY CONCERN I HAVE IS A
2NDRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE COMING DOWN THE PLAINS THIS DAY
AND IT MAY BE COOL ENOUGH AT THE LOWER LEVELS TO CAP THE
ATMOSPHERE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 2NDRY FRONT MAY ADD
ADDITIONAL LIFT TO THE LOW LEVELS WHICH MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION.
FOR NOW...LEANING MORE TOWARDS AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE FCST
AREA....WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE S MTNS.

FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A BUSY DAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS FCST TO COME DOWN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE
A BIT FARTHER AWAY FROM US SO WE MAY SEE LESS INFLUENCE FROM
IT...BUT ENOUGH PV FORCING ALOFT SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION TO
ENHANCE THE LIFT OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RIDGE GETS SHUNTED OVER THE REGION. WITH
HEIGHTS BUILDING INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE LESS...AND EXPECT ONLY
ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN. SHOULD BE ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S PLAINS.

LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RIDGE ALOFT PUSHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THIS WILL PUT US IN SW FLOW IN THE LOWER AND MID LVLS.
THIS MAY ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SW CONUS TO SHIFT NWD OVER
THE STATE OF COLORADO AND WE MAY SEE SOME MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS TO THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER THE 06Z
ISSUANCE. GUSTS UP TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A 1-3 HOUR
WINDOW. BOTH TERMINALS COULD SEE VCSH THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...KALS STILL HAS A 1-2 HOUR WINDOW OF VCTS AROUND THE
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS AT KCOS AND KPUB SHIFTING AROUND FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF -TSRA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL CARRY THIS IN A PREVAILING GROUP
BEGINNING AT 22Z. A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY FOR KPUB AND KALS...SO
VCTS SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS...THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT


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