Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200902
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
202 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Updated for expiration of winter weather advisory over the central
mountains. Adjusted pops acrs the area for the rest of the night
and into the morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Weakening upper low lifting from the 4 corners across Colorado this
afternoon, with periods of moderate/heavy snow along the Continental
Divide and mainly isolated showers/sprinkles elsewhere. South winds
have become rather gusty many areas this afternoon, especially far
eastern plains where some virga enhanced gusts have approached 40
kts. For tonight, upper low/trough lifts northeast through the area,
with precip ending from south to north along the Continental Divide
overnight. Will keep current advisories up into the evening, with a
few more inches of snow set to accumulate over the higher peaks by
midnight. Interior valleys/eastern mountains will see a few showers
into the evening, with a rapid decrease in activity after sunset.
Any sprinkles on the plains late this afternoon will shift quickly
into KS by evening, with only a brief wrap around sprinkle/flurry
possible along the Palmer Divide until midnight.

On Monday, dry weather returns to the region as upper ridge builds
across the srn Rockies. Main concern is potential for near critical
fire wx conditions over the eastern plains, as gusty NW winds wrap
around the departing low from late morning into the early afternoon.
With winds diminishing from mid afternoon onward, window for fire
danger is rather small, and won`t issue any highlight, but will
mention in fire weather forecast. Max temps will remain well above
average Mon, with readings into the 60s along and east of I-25, and
pushing 50f over most interior valleys. Dry and extremely warm
conditions are expected on Tue as winds aloft strengthen and promote
deep mixing across the region. Record highs look possible at
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, with a few spots on the plains
approaching the 80f mark. Fire danger will increase with the wind,
with near critical conditions along and east of I-25 in the
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Main meteorological issues during the longer term continue
to be temperatures, pops and gusty winds at times. In addition,
localized elevated fire weather conditions at times also a
concern.

Latest longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations indicate that a relatively dry and
continued unseasonably warm southwesterly upper flow pattern will
prevail over southern Colorado from Tuesday night into Wednesday
night with next upper disturbance impacting primarily western and
northern sections of the CWA with unsettled conditions from
Thursday into Thursday night.

Then, next potentially stronger upper system is projected to
impact the forecast district with unsettled conditions beginning
next Sunday.

Meanwhile, at the surface, healthy northerly surge is still
expected to push across eastern sections of the forecast district
Thursday night with secondary northerly surge moving across
eastern sections Saturday night.

Above to well above seasonal temperatures(once again favoring
eastern portions of the forecast district) are still anticipated
from Tuesday night into Wednesday night with temperatures then
running near to below mid to late February climatological averages
from Thursday into next Sunday.

Warmest temperatures during the longer term should be experienced
Wednesday with coolest readings expected from Friday into next
weekend.

Finally, the highest potential for gusty winds at times over the
forecast district during the longer term should be noted from
Tuesday night into Thursday night and then again from later Friday
into the weekend with localized elevated fire weather conditions
needing to be closely monitored...especially into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 939 PM MST Sun Feb 19 2017

Upper disturbance will continue to impact region with areas of
snow and rain showers until around 12z. Greatest impact areas
will be along the Continental Divide, especially north of
Monarch Pass. A secondary area of activity will sweep east
across the Pikes Peak Region, especially Teller and northern El
Paso Counties, between now and 12z. Some isolated activity may
drift east across the plains through the night as well. After 12z,
however, all should pretty much be over with clearing skies under
building high pressure and VFR returning to all areas.

For the TAF sites, looks like KALS will likely remain VFR with
any shower activity likely already past the site.  KCOS and to
a lesser extent, KPUB, could see some showers in the vicinity over
the next few hours. KCOS has a better chance than KPUB but odds
are low in either case. Regardless, will carry VCSH in TAF sites
until 11 or 12z until upper system moves past.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
AVIATION...LW



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