Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 020928
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

A RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
THROUGH TUE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL
DROP SWD TONIGHT...BRINGING A WEAK FRONTAL SURGE OT THE PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE MTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN...SOME LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL
SURGE LATER TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN MTS AND RATON MESA
REGION. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME
PERIOD THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY WILL START TO REBOUND...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS...AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND ZERO DEG C BY LATE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG FOR THE PLAINS...OR STILL
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK...THEN
UNSETTLED CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS LARGE UPPER LOW LUMBERS
OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...

WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHWARD MAY BRING A FEW MORNING SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION...A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS/-TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT
DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON
THE PLAINS AND 50S AND 60S VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...

DOMINANT RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER REGION. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY HIGH
ELEVATIONS -TSRA...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. IT
WILL BE WARM. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE IN THE 70S ON THE PLAINS...50S
AND 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY...

VERY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE M80S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F IN EL PASO COUNTY. 60S AND 70S
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS.

WE WILL SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MTNS AS
SOME MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE
BROAD UPPER LOW WHICH IS FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIF.

FRIDAY...

MODELS IN RATHER VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING IN BRINGING
THIS LOW INLAND. IT IT FCST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE GREATER LAS VEGAS
AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FCST TO BE
OVER THE STATE OF CO...AND A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND THE LARGE BROAD 500 MB LOW. THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THESE SHORT
WAVES...TSRA MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME...HOWEVER BEST CHANCE WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. IF GUIDANCE IS
CORRECT...BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG STORMS WOULD BE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS

SATURDAY...

CENTER OF UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER
THE COLORADO REGION BY SAT AFTERNOON. WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE CWA...BUT TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MTNS ON THIS DAY. FOR THE
PLAINS...THE GUIDANCE VARIES A BIT. THE EC HAS A BIT OF STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA WHICH KEEPS THE LLVL WINDS
BACKED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
HAS THE DRYLINE WELL INTO KS. IF THE EC IS CORRECT...WE COULD SEE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ON THE PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON...WHILE
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT THEN IT COULD BE GENERALLY DRY AND BREEZY ON
THE PLAINS SAT.

SUNDAY...

MID LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH
THE CENTER OF THE LOW FCST TO BE SOMEWHERE JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...EITHER OVER NE CO OR EASTERN WY...BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE REGION SO EXPECT QUITE A
FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON THIS DAY. FLOW WILL BE
VERY WEAK ALOFT AS THE LOW IS RATHER VERY LARGE AND FLOW AT MID LVLS
IS WEAK. TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF INTO THE 60S AND 70S PLAINS.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

LOW EXPECTED TO FILL AND TROUGH AXIS WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST. STATE
WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO ROTATING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH CONTINUED SHOWERY PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SUMMARY...

WARM TEMPS FOR MID WEEK THEN LARGE LUMBERING UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE SOME
STRONGER STORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY FRI AND MAYBE
SAT. TSRA INTENSITY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE WE
CAN ADVECT INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH TIMING OF SHORT WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.

UPPER LOW WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION LATER SAT INTO SUNDAY AND
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MORE CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY WEATHER WITH TEMPS
COOLING OFF A BIT.

AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE STEADY PRECIP WITH THIS UPPER LOW AS BEST
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

MVFR CIGS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING...LEAVING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SE CO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND
PIKES PEAK REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ084-085-087-
088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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