Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151752
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1052 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Snow will gradually ramp down in the mtns later today with some
snow over the plains tonight. Near critical fire weather conditions
on the plains again today...

Currently...

very strong southwest flow aloft is occurring over the region early
this morning as 175+ jet is overhead. Mtn obs are indicating winds
in the 40 to 60 mph range. Wind gap areas on the plains were also
windy as Walsenburg was gusting to over 40 mph. With westerly winds
occurring on the plains, temps were very warm for this time of the
year with readings mostly in the 40s. Valleys were also relatively
warm with readings in the 30s. Mtns were mainly in the 20s. Obs,
radar, and web cams indicated it was snowing in the mtns, especially
along the contdvd and northern Sangres.

Today...

Flow at 700 mb  will transition from southwesterly this morning to
northwesterly by later this afternoon. Likewise, snow over the sw
mtns will gradually decrease while it will increase over the central
mountains. Winter wx hilites have been modified in the mtns with the
warning for the san juans ending now at 21 UTC. Note that most of
the heavier snow in the san juans will occur from Wolf Creek pass
south to the NM border as flow is more westerly and this will favor
areas from Wolf Creek southward. The warning for the central mtns
has been extended to 00 UTC. It is not out of the question that the
warning for the c mtns may need to be extended into early this
evening.

The winds over the higher terrain will gradually decrease as the day
progresses.

For the plains...another warm day is anticipated as the front will
not get into the region until late this afternoon and early evening.
max temps will be in the 60s south and east of Pueblo with 50s in El
Paso county. Near critical fire weather conditions will occur as RH
values will be in the 15 to 20 percent range and winds will be 20 to
35 mph range during the afternoon time period.

Tonight...

Snow showers in the c mtns will come to and end by late evening.

Surface front will come down the plains by early to mid evening.
Simulations continue to indicate some snow will be likely for parts
of the plains this evening into tonight. Accumulations are expected
mainly along the I-25 corridor with amounts expected to be 1/2 to 1"
most locations with some locally heavier amounts from south of
Pueblo to north of Trinidad. A few inches may occur on the east
slopes of the southern mtns, especially across the Wet mountains.

Min temps tonight will return to more normal values with readings in
teens and 20s lower elevations and single digits and teens mtns and
valleys. Winds in the mtns will be light. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

A pattern switch is in the forecast for the long term forecast, as
high pressure builds off the east coast, while a longwave trough
develops over the west. Ensemble spreads are modest, but the
pattern is there.

Friday...an upper level disturbance will be passing to the
southeast Friday morning. Models in good agreement with a band of
snowfall dropping south off the Palmer Divide during the early
morning hours, before dissipating by noon. Snow accumulations of
around an inch or two may be possible, especially near the
mountains. Temperatures will be slow to warm by the afternoon with
40s for highs across the Plains.

Saturday and Sunday...flow aloft will transitions westerly with
increased mixing from Saturday into Sunday. Expect highs to warm
into the 50s and 60s for Saturday, before warming into the 60s and
70s for Sunday. In addition, winds will increase, especially for
Sunday morning. Fire weather conditions look to be elevated for
both afternoons. Expect dry conditions across the region through
the weekend.

Monday into Thursday...the upper level pattern begins to shift
with a persistent longwave trough aloft strengthening over the
west. This will put southwest flow across the region for the next
several days. Embedded waves of energy will lead to periods of
snow along the Continental Divide most every day. This flow will
favor the San Juan Range, and will likely lead to several inches
of snowfall. Lesser amounts are expected further north. Much will
depend on when and where individual waves move across the area.
Temperatures over the Plains will be held in check by a cold front
will easterly winds expected, with highs in the 40s and 50s.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1052 AM MST Thu Feb 15 2018

Synopsis:

An upper level trough will pass over the region, bringing gusty
winds and winter precipitation over the forecast sites.

KALS:

The main concern for KALS will be the gusting winds and lower clouds
ceilings. Clouds will remain VFR throughout the forecast period.

KCOS and KPUB:

Gusting westerlies will precede the cold front passage, but at 01Z
the westerlies shift to northerlies as the cold front passes over
region. The cloud ceilings will decrease with the frontal passage,
but as snow begins visibilities begin to decrease, as well.
Conditions will improve slightly as the snow dissipates, but will
diminish once again when the winds shift to southeasterly. The
southeasterly winds will lower the cloud ceilings and form fog.
Overall, KPUB and KCOS will sustain IFR conditions after the front
passage, with brief periods of MVFR. Once the southeasterly winds
form, LIFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for COZ068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ061.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ058-
060.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ073-
075.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SKELLY



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