Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 291738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1138 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

CURRENTLY...

A FEW TSRA EXIST OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS...OTHERWISE SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ENDED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING.

TODAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...HELPING INITIALIZE CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS 700-300 MB STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH...THUS STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
NAM MODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS AROUND 1000J OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID LEVELS COOL RAPIDLY WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL MTN
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL PRIMARY STAY WEST OF THE I-
25 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN MTNS...INCLUDING
THE WET AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTN RANGES. PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY STILL LINGER NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER AND ACROSS
MTN AREAS UNTIL AROUND 06Z AS CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE.
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. -AL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STORM CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. POPS AND TEMPS
WILL MAINLY HINGE ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE N-NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

TUESDAY...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH H7 TEMPS UP
AROUND 18 DEG C. WEAK SFC FLOW AND NRLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD LIMIT THE
HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT...SO WILL STAY ON THE LOW SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL STILL MEAN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF
THE PLAINS. WITH THE NRLY FLOW ALOFT...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY OVER THE MTS AND HYR TRRN. WITH MARGINAL CAPE
AND SHEAR...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF I-25. BUT...FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS
LIKE STORMS WILL BE A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD.

TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN EARLY WED...AND WINDS SHIFT TO AN UPSLOPE
DIRECTION OVER THE PLAINS WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT SHOULD KNOCK DOWN
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS AND
80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A LOW-END SVR THREAT WILL BE PRESENT
WITH THE INCREASED SHEAR...ALONG WITH A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SVR WX
FOR THE EXTENDED. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
PLAINS...AND NW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT...PROVIDING ABOUT
40-45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR BY AFTERNOON. CAPE IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG
RANGE AND LOWER LCLS SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME
ROTATING STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
CONCERN. TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW-MID 80S OVER THE PLAINS.
BY FRIDAY...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD OVER THE PLAINS AND SWD TO
THE RATON AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CROSSES INTO NM AND TX. TEMPS AGAIN
SHOULD BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...SOME MORNING CLOUDS EARLY SAT SHOULD
CLEAR BY AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO WARM CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS AGAIN
RISING INTO THE 90S OVER THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS PROGGING A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH SAT EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
EVENING OR OVERNIGHT STORMS...BUT DETAILS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT. BOTH THE EC AND GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE INDICATING A SLOW
TRANSITION TO A MONSOONAL PATTERN FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK...AS THE
UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO MIGRATE EWD...FIRST THROUGH CO AND THEN ON TO
THE TX PANHANDLE BY DAYS 8-10. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN THE
PROGRESSION BUT THERE IS GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. SO...ANY DRY AND/OR HOT SPELL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE FAIRLY BRIEF. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE TAF SITES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LCOALLY GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



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