Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240157

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
757 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Issued at 757 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Updated forecast based on radar coverage.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monsoon plume still resides over the region though layer specific
humidity values are lower than the past couple days, particularly
across northern and eastern portions of the area.  Still enough
moisture present however for diurnally driven convection which is
what models portray.  Doesn`t appear to be much forcing
today...though area of cloudiness in the San Luis Valley and
Southwest mountains appear to be related to an upper level shear
axis around southern side of the upper high.  So expect evening
thunderstorms to be confined mainly to the mountain areas today with
weak north to northeasterly and even easterly steering currents
generally keeping convection over the mountains.  The hrrr runs
suggest an isolated thunderstorm or two could develop over the
Palmer Divide this afternoon as well so will keep some isolated pops
across that area as well. Elsewhere across the plains looks dry. Mtn
convection should wind down this evening with some lingering showers
possible across the southwest mountains overnight in proximity to
deeper moisture associated with the monsoon plume.

Monday looks similar to today, though a few degrees warmer.  Once
again mountains and adjacent I-25 corridor will see the best chance
for TSRA.  Layer specific humidities increase a bit across the
southwest mountains so this area will be most at risk for heavy rain
produced flash flooding.  But certainly all storms both today and
Monday will carry that risk should they impact burn scars, urban
areas or locations with saturated soils. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

No big changes to ongoing forecast with weak west to southwest flow
aloft remaining across the area Monday night and Tuesday, as the
upper high across the region continues to build south and east
into the Southern High Plains. Monsoonal moisture continues to
work back into the state through the period, leading to increasing
chances of afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially
across the western half of the area. The latest models are also
indicating a weak disturbance moving across the Great Basin Monday
night, which could keep showers and storms going through early
Tuesday morning, especially along and west of the ContDvd. The
increasing moisture and weak steering flow aloft will continue to
support locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding, especially over and near area burn scars. Temperatures
across the area are expected to be near to slightly above seasonal
levels, especially across the eastern plains.

A more active period across all of south central and southeast
Colorado remains on tap for the Wednesday through Thursday
timeframe, as a minor disturbance moving across the northern fringe
of the high across the Northern Rockies sends a cold front across
the eastern plains through the day Wednesday. The front will be a
focus for convection across the eastern plains on Wednesday, with
moist low level upslope expected to persist through the day on
Thursday. This, along with the monsoonal plume across the area, will
lead to widespread afternoon and evening showers and storms with the
greatest coverage expected to be over and near the higher terrain.
Again, the main storm threats will be locally heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding, though cant rule out gusty outflow
winds and small hail throughout the period. With the expected
increase in convection, temperatures look to cool to below seasonal
levels, especially across the eastern plains.

There looks to be a slow warming and drying trend for the end of the
work week and into next weekend, as monsoonal moisture gets shunted
south and west of the area the upper high again retrogrades into the
Desert Southwest.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours with an
isolated storm or two possible across El Paso county.  Main threat
with thunderstorms with be brief MVFR conditions along with erratic
wind gusts up to 40 kts.  KALS will see the highest chance for
-TSRA to occur at the terminal, with KCOS seeing a less likely
 VCTS possibility. KPUB will see the lowest probability for
 thunderstorms so will keep that TAF site dry. Best chance will be
 before 02z...then skies will clear out overnight. Will carry VCSH
 in at KALS until 05z as this area will be under the richer
 monsoon moisture plume. Monday looks similar to today with most
 thunderstorms tied to the mountains. There is a slightly better
 chance for one or two to drift off into the adjacent plains
 during the late afternoon and evening affecting the KCOS and KPUB
 taf sites. -KT




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