Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 280545
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1145 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...SOME
SNOW AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS...

CURRENTLY...

VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW AS SEEN BY WATER VAPOR IMGY WAS SPINNING
OVER NE UTAH. A VORT LOBE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS OVER WESTERN COLORADO
AS A LINE OF TSRA WAS ADVANCING EAST OVER THIS REGION. OVER THE NWS
PUB CWA...A DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL LOW WAS OVER THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE PLAINS...AS SKIES WERE GENERALLY SUNNY. TEMPS
OVER THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED UP INTO THE 80S GENERALLY BELOW 5500
FEET...WITH 60S AND 70S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. LOOKING AT THE
THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS...CAPE VALUES FROM THE SPC WERE IN THE 1000
RANGE WHILE FARTHER EAST VALUES WERE 2500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR
WAS 30-35 KNTS.

AT THE SFC ACROSS THE REGION...A WEEK COOL FRONT WAS CLEARLY SEEN IN
THE VIS SAT PIX IMGY ALONG THE EL PASO/DOUGLAS/ELBERT COUNTY LINE
AND IT WAS PROGRESSING SLOWLY SWD.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

VORT LOBE OVER W CO WILL LIKELY START AFFECTING THE GREATER PIKES
PEAK REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. HRRR REALLY
DOES NOT GET THINGS GOING UNTIL AFTER 9 PM...AND I BELIEVE THIS IS
TOO LATE AS THINGS WILL LIKELY GET GOING BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SHEAR AND CAPE ARE INCREASING
AND I DO EXPECT WE WILL SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF COLORADO. SPC RECENTLY ISSUED AN MCD DISCUSSING THIS THREAT.

WALDO WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL MOVE AT A
GOOD CLIP TODAY...ATMOSPHERE HAS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ANY HEAVY
RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE ISSUES OVER THE BURN
SCARS.

OVERALL...I BELIEVE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARY...ALTHOUGH STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW HEADING OUR WAY.

TONIGHT...

UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT AS MENTIONED...BELIEVE THEY WILL
BE ISOLATED. BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD REGION. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
LIKELY.

TOMORROW...

COOL NORTHEAST LLVL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER REGION. WITH UPPER LOW
OVERHEAD...ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLOUD UP RELATIVELY EARLY. ALTHOUGH
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TOMORROW...OVERALL HEAVY
RAIN THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
TOMORROW ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S ALONG THE
I-25 CORRIDOR WITH TEMPS AOA 80F OVER THE FAR E PLAINS. 60S AND
70S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE VALLEYS. IT WILL BE COOL ABOVE TREELINE
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. SNOWSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW WILL BE ALONG THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LOW FINALLY EXITS THE STATE EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH WEAK
CONVECTION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THU EVENING.
FLAT UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FRI LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPS...ALTHOUGH SOME
ISOLATED WEAK TSRA MAY FORM OVER THE MTS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. NEW WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING W-SW
FLOW ACROSS COLORADO SAT INTO SUN. STILL A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AGAIN STORMS SHOULD BE HIGH BASED AND WEAK AS MOIST LAYER IS
FAIRLY SHALLOW. UPPER TROUGH THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUN...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH COLORADO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NOSE OF THE UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
COLORADO...STRONGEST UPWARD MOTION WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MTS AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS
BOTH SAT AND SUN WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH WARMEST
READINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON SUN.

WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MON...THOUGH AIR MASS STAYS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE DAY UNDER
SUBSIDENT UPPER FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. AS A
RESULT...SUSPECT ANY CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTIVE LIFT LATE MON NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS. ON TUE/WED...SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH WITH FORCING STAYING RATHER
WEAK...SUSPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE ONLY ISOLATED BOTH
DAYS. AFTER SOME MODEST COOLING ON MON...TEMPS BEGIN TO SLOWLY
CREEP BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY WED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PLAINS WERE A FEW 90S WILL REAPPEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PULLED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE KCOS AND
KPUB TERMINALS AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AT KALS OVERNIGHT...WHILE KCOS AND KPUB CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS THROUGH 08-09Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN EARLY
START TO -SHRA/-TSRA ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS BY 16Z. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KCOS AND KPUB
WITH ISOLATED INSTABILITY -TSRA MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. KALS WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR
VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT


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