Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
539 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

CURRENTLY...CLOUDS ARE ON THE INCREASE OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  WEBCAMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING.  THE
PLAINS ARE CURRENTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.

TONIGHT...TWO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...ONE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND A DISTURBANCE DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SNOW TONIGHT ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TONIGHT.  THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY FURTHER EAST.  HIGH-RES
MODELS ARE DEVELOPING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS MOVING THE SNOW EAST INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HAVE A FEELING COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING OUT OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND SHORT DURATION...BUT
SPOTTY HALF INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  MODEL OUTPUT AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AND COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK ROADS BY MORNING.

FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS COLORADO BY THE
AFTERNOON.  ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE WITH 40S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR HIGHS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS
RATHER DRY AND MAIN UPPER JET DIVING WELL SOUTH OF
COLORADO...SUSPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM COTTONWOOD PASS
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL CREEP UPWARD A FEW DEGREES MANY
AREAS...THOUGH LACK OF SURFACE WIND AND LIMITED MIXING WILL TEND
TO KEEP WARM-UP RATHER MODEST. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AS STRONG UPPER JET AND DEEP MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE CREST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUN AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SNOW STARTING SUN NIGHT FROM MONARCH PASS NORTHWARD AS NW
MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND MOIST LAYER DEEPENS. EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND WARMER SUN AFTERNOON
AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE MON INTO EARLY TUE...BEFORE
MAIN PORTION OF THE UPPER JET SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MON/MON
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUE AS JET AND MOISTURE MOVE EAST.
MAY NEED SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SUN
THROUGH MON...BUT STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY ISSUANCE TODAY.
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL STAY BREEZY TO WINDY AND MILD
ANOTHER FOR ANOTHER DAY MON...THOUGH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTH
LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AS LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER JET INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA. AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF HEAVY QPF (0.50 INCHES OR
GREATER) OVER THE PLAINS MON EVENING AS SHOWN BY 12Z ECMWF/18Z
GFS...AS UNFAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW/MID LEVELS WILL WORK
TO COUNTERACT DYNAMIC UPWARD MOTION WITH THE UPPER JET...BUT FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE...WITH
HIGHEST POPS MON EVENING. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AS ANY
PRECIP ON THE PLAINS MON WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN WITH A
MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW MON EVENING. JET SHIFTS EAST TUE TAKING
MOST PRECIP WITH IT...THOUGH SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL NOTE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS
PRECIP GOING ON THE PLAINS MUCH OF THE DAY TUE...WHICH LOOKS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE UPPER JET WELL EAST OF THE
AREA. MAX TEMPS TUE WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES MOST AREAS AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH...THOUGH READINGS WILL STILL BE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

AREA WILL STAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WED...WITH NEXT TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH TOWARD COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY. WHILE 12Z ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF ON ITS SOLUTION OF A DEEP GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW AND
TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU AFTERNOON/THU NIGHT. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN
DOWN DETAILS/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT APPEARS IT WILL
LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON LATE CHRISTMAS DAY/POST CHRISTMAS
TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 239 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

KALS...STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 THOUSAND FEET AGL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MODELS AND SOUNDING DATA INDICATE FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WITH
REDUCED CIGS AND VIS TO MVFR TO IFR INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE AFTERNOON.

KCOS...SCATTERED 2 THOUSAND FEET AGL DECKS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER THIS EVENING OVER
EL PASO COUNTY WHICH MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIGS. FOG AND STRATUS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IN
AND AROUND THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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