Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 212128
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

...INCREASING WINDS FOR TUESDAY...

UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS CO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WEAK PV ANOMALY EXITING THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE DROPPED OFF INTO THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME
LOWER TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  AFTERNOON HEATING HAS TRIGGERED
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH LACK OF FORCING COVERAGE HAS BEEN PRETTY SPARSE
AND LACK OF MOISTURE HAS LIMITED UPDRAFT STRENGTH.  HRRR HAS BEEN
TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN...SO HAVE DECREASED POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS...AND CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING
ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES FOR TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SPREADING IN.  WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD OFF
INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ONE CONCERN FOR
TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  GFS IS DRIER WITH SFC DEW
POINTS (UPPER 20S)...WHILE NAM ACTUALLY INCREASES THEM IN THE
AFTERNOON (30S TO AROUND 40) AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND -SHRA/VIRGA
DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  LATEST 4KM WRF ALSO SHOWS THIS MOISTENING
TREND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPS MID-
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS WHICH RESULTS IN AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES IN THE 18-25% RANGE...TOO HIGH FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.  QUITE A BIT OF HUERFANO COUNTY HAD SOME GOOD RAIN FROM
THE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...SO THE MOST LIKE SPOTS FOR MARGINAL
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WOULD BE PUEBLO
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EL PASO...AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  LOCAL
WRF IS SLOW TO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DURATION TO LESS THAN THE 3 HR
REQUIRED MINIMUM.  WITH ALL THESE MARGINAL CRITERIA...DECIDED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS MORE HIGH RES MODELS BEGIN TO RESOLVE THESE FINER
DETAILS.

OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP.  THESE WILL BE PRETTY HIGH BASED AND
MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AND ONLY SOME BRIEF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTTY AREAS.  A MARGINALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A DIFFUSE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAPES
WILL ONLY BE RUNNING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY STORM THREAT.  -KT


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE LONGER TERM PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PRIMARY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL CHALLENGES INCLUDE BUT
ARE NOT LIMITED TO POPS...TEMPERATURES...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER/NEAR EASTERN SECTIONS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER MODEL
SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER MAINLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS AS WELL AS INCREASED DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...THEREFORE WILL ALLOW
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS
WELL AS OVER ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO SET-UP NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK PAINTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY JUST EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER. WFO PUEBLO
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

THEN BASICALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS
TIME WILL DEPICT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME
IN COMBINATION WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS.

NEXT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING
THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COMPUTER SIMULATIONS HAVE VARYING FORECAST TRACKS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH GFS FURTHEST SOUTH AND ECMWF AND DGEX FURTHER NORTH THROUGH
18Z NEXT MONDAY. WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY THIS WEEKEND.

FINALLY...ABOVE SEASONAL LATE APRIL TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FROM LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 328 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW WEAK CELLS MOVING INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  PROBABILITIES OF ONE OF THESE
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LOOKS TOO SMALL AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS THEY COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
START AT THE KCOS AND KALS TAF SITES DURING THE LATE MORNING TO
AROUND THE NOON HOUR.  GUSTY WINDS WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET
IN AT KPUB.  GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH SOME BRIEF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR COZ226>237.

&&

$$



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