Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261025
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
425 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

CURRENTLY...H5 RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WAS
MOVING INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AS THE
UPPER LOW WAS SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS NE AND THE
DAKOTAS...ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA HAS COME TO AN END. THERE ARE SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LINGERING...AND TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPS AND A BIT LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...HI RES MODELS STILL SHOW CONVECTION
FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MIDDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...THEN TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST SPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA UNDER GENERAL
THUNDER...SO ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE CHANCE OF A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM THIS AFTN AND EVE...POTENTIAL IS LESS TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAIN THREATS OF ANY STORMS TODAY WILL BE
LTG...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MTS. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UP AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...

WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROF TRANSLATES EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH SRN
STREAM ENERGY MOVING INTO DESERT SOUTHWEST WHILE NRN STREAM CLOSED
LOW SETTLES OVER ID/NW WY. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN AHEAD OF THE
SRN STREAM TROF WED AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...LEE TROF
WILL MIX OUT THE DRY LINE EASTWARD INTO THE SE PLAINS. GFS IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MIXING OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE
PLAINS...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. NAM12 KEEPS LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES WHICH KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000+J/KG NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. GIVEN
THE TROFFING STILL BACK TO OUR WEST...LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE NAM
SOLN. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEARS RUNNING AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES...THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS DAY...AND AREA IS OUTLOOKED WITH A SLIGHT RISK.

FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO HANG ON
PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET PERIOD AS UPPER TROF
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE BRUNT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...SOUTHERN STREAM
TROF WILL BE EJECTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS CO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE FOR BOTH DAYS...AND WITH
DIFFUSE DRY LINE MIXING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING
THE AFTERNOON THIS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WHERE
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE IS ALREADY HIGH.  ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY
LINE...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S SHOULD YIELD CAPE VALUES OF
AROUND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES THURS AFTERNOON.
SHEAR LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER...PROBABLY DUE TO MARGINAL FLOW
ALOFT...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL JET CRANKS UP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS THURS EVENING WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THOUGH THE REGION. PIKES PEAK
REGION COULD BE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
POSITION AND TIMING OF THIS FRONT. AS THE UPPER TROF SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NRN/CEN PLAINS FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT...A
DEEPER PUSH OF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
LOOK WET AGAIN FOR FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE DISTRICT...BUT
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SE MTS AND PLAINS. FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY
BE HIGHEST THIS DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH GET HIT ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY...SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONCEPTUALLY
THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ELEVATED AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND POTENTIALLY CAPPED FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS THOUGH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SE MTS AND ADJACENT I-25
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THERE COULD BE SOME
POCKETS OF SUFFICIENT CAPE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SE MTS
FOR SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT FOR NOW
DEEP LAYER SHEARS DO NOT LOOK TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. MAIN THREAT
LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER
TROF ENTERS THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MON...BUT TRACK APPEARS TO
STAY FARTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST THIS TIME...WHICH PUTS CO UNDER
RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS GRIDS
WILL CARRY A GENERAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 333 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE THREE
MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
AFTN/EVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 18Z AND 04Z MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE



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