Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261704
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1104 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPDATED TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE MTS THIS MORNING...WITH NOT
MUCH HAPPENING RIGHT NOW PER OBS. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE. ROSE

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

BROUGHT IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TWEAKED SHORT TERM WIND...POP AND
SKY COVER GRIDS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

...SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND HIGH FIRE DANGER
ELSEWHERE...

AN APPROACHING PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RAMP UP WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  SPEEDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES AND
HUMIDITIES WILL REACH MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS.  SOME AREAS WHERE
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE STRONGEST WINDS INCLUDE
THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS...EASTERN FREMONT AND WESTERN PUEBLO
COUNTIES...HUERFANO COUNTY AND WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO MARGINAL IN THESE AREAS FOR FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS...CAUTION IS STILL NEEDED TODAY.  IT IS STILL A RISKY DAY
FOR BURNING DUE TO THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR AREAS.

AS THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.  FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...SOME SPOTTY RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COOLER...MORE SEASONAL AIR MASS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND EC MODELS THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CO PLAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS
IF MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOT AT SOME PCPN THROUGH
THE DAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL
MTS...BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AND END BY LATE EVENING
OVER THE SE CORNER OF THE STATE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT. MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE COLDEST SO FAR WITH 20S POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE E PLAINS...AND SOME SORT OF FREEZE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE PLAINS IS
PROBABLE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. AS FOR TUE...DRY CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
BUT WITH SUCH A COLD START PLANNED...LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S
TO RIGHT AROUND 60F.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE DESERT SW...CONTINUING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR THE PLAINS...AND THE 60S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO ON
FRI...AND SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
INCOMING TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S
FOR FRI...THEN NEARING 70F FOR THE PLAINS ON SAT. THERE WILL BE A
LIMITED MOISTURE TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...BEGINNING FRI EVE AND
LASTING OVER THE WEEKEND. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

MAIN AVN CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. MT TB WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX A BIT...BUT WL AGAIN BE A CONCERN MON MORNING
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HGWY 5O E OF THE WETS AND SANGRES. S-SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
COULD GUST IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE CONTDVD WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME AREAS OF OBSCURATION WITH SHOWERS INCREASING THIS
AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THIS EVENING. MON MORNING...AROUND
OR JUST AFTER 12Z SHOULD SEE A FRONT PUSH THROUGH ERN CO WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE N TO NE. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE PLAINS MON MORNING BUT IT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT THE TAF SITES. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...ROSE



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