Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 191713

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

An upper level ridge will be centered over the desert southwest
today and tonight, with northwest flow aloft over CO.  Water vapor
satellite images showing dry air over CO. A weak front will move
thru eastern CO today, bringing northerly winds that will then
become easterly in the afternoon. The NAM keeps southeast and south
central CO dry today and tonight, while the GFS and RAP show late
afternoon and evening pcpn over mtn areas. Will go with just some
isold pcpn chances over the southern mtn areas late this afternoon
and this evening, with dry wx elsewhere. Temps today should be a
little warmer than yesterday across the southeast plains, with highs
being similar to yesterday across the high valley locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Models are in decent agreement through the extended period. There
continues to be consistency issues from run to run, especially in
regards to precipitation chances across the region.

Tuesday through Thursday...high pressure will dominate the Desert
Southwest with several impulses moving east across Colorado.
Temperatures will be hot, with highs each afternoon in the upper
90s to lower 100s across the Plains. Expect isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon and
evening. The main question will be how much activity the Plains
see. Higher resolution models indicate thunderstorms may develop
over the far southeastern Plains on Tuesday afternoon and quickly
move south into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles by the evening.
Energy moving through the ridge on Wednesday and Thursday may
bring similar thunderstorm development out near the Kansas border.
Any showers and thunderstorms that do develop through this time
period will be capable of producing lightning and very gusty winds
due to high cloud bases.

Friday and Saturday...a cold front will drop south across the
region by Friday morning with much cooler air moving into
Colorado. Flow will turn easterly upslope by Friday afternoon and
persist into Saturday. Models are back and forth on how much
precipitation coverage they want to develop Friday into Saturday,
with favored regions being over the Eastern Mountains, out into
the Adjacent Plains. Temperatures will make it into the 80s on
Friday, while Saturday sees highs in the 70s.

Sunday...high pressure over the Desert Southwest will begin to
creep back northward on Sunday. This will allow for temperatures
to start warming back into the 90s across the lower elevations. A
few showers and thunderstorms may be possible over the mountains
Sunday afternoon and evening. Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR all TAF sites. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
mountains surrounding KALS this afternoon and evening. A storm
could move over or near KALS. With dry lower levels, the storms
could produce gusty winds.  --PGW--




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