Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 291116
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

...Strong late Spring storm impacting southern Colorado with heavy
wet snow through tonight...

Upper jet is just about to round the base of the closed low over
western NM which will allow it to start progressing slowly eastward
then northeastward into the TX/OK panhandles and by this evening.
Upper low deepens as it continues to lift northeastward into western
KS by early Sunday morning.  Having some impressive snowfall rates
across Pueblo county this morning though warm ground has definitely
contributed to some melting which has mitigated the snow
accumulation on pavement surfaces.  Have had reports of tree damage
in and a round the Pueblo area and NWS office has had power
fluctuations a couple times tonight.  Roads per web cams have been
slushy and snowpacked at times under the heavier
snowfall...particularly along the southern I-25 corridor from
Colorado City southward.

Overall winter storm headlines still look on track.  Starting to see
snowfall decrease in the downslope region of the Palmer Divide and
northern Pueblo county.  However am reluctant to downgrade winter
storm warning for Pikes Peak region as WV shows an impressive
conveyor belt of moisture spreading northward and northeast upslope
flow will keep at least moderate snowfall going through the morning
for favored areas of the Palmer Divide and northern El Paso county.
Suspect that winter storm warning for the Colorado Springs area will
be downgraded later this morning as snowfall continues to decrease.

Elsewhere...heavy snow will continue through today with the heaviest
accumulations along the northeast facing slopes of the Wets, Sangre
De Cristo Mountains and the Raton Ridge where combination of strong
lift from upglide continues along with deep upslope flow. Still
looks like a good 8 to 15 inches with local accumulations of up to 2
feet or a little more will fall for these areas.  As the upper low
lifts northeastward later today...focus shifts eastward towards the
KS border in area of strongest isentropic upglide.  Challenges still
abound with predicting snowfall amounts across the plains due to
residual ground heat and resultant melting.  However heavy wet snow
will likely impact travel with roads becoming slushy and even snow
covered at times as temperatures hover around the freezing mark.
Tree and powerline damage will be possible as well due to strong
north winds which increase this afternoon into tonight as the system
wraps up to the south and east of the area.  Would be concerned for
potential blizzard conditions except that heavy wet nature to the
snow should limit the blowing and drifting quite a bit...so think
that visibilities will stay above 1/4 mile.  But this will have to
be watched closely...particularly across the Raton mesa where
temperatures may stay a little colder over the higher elevations.

Snow will pull away from the southeast mountains and adjacent plains
this evening so heaviest snow will continue near the KS border. Many
of the headlines come down at 00z...and this still looks on track.
highlights for the southeast mountains may be able to be taken down
by 06z for the Wets/Sangres and southern I-25 corridor but will
leave this timing for later shifts to refine as timing of the
ejection of the closed low becomes more certain.  Farther east
winter storm warnings will continue into Sunday morning. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Main longer term meteorological challenges include pops,
temperatures and gusty winds at times.

Initial system currently affecting the forecast district with
snow(heavy at times), gusty winds and well below seasonal
temperatures is expected to be exiting eastern portions by later
Sunday.

Based on latest meteorological trends will extend existing winter
weather highlights over far eastern sections into early Sunday
afternoon due to continued snow and wind potential over these
locations.

Then, next trailing system is projected to produce another round
of unsettled meteorological conditions from later Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Also, building upper ridging is expected to allow drier and
warmer conditions to be experienced Thursday and Friday with
projected maximum temperatures climbing well into the 70s over
many eastern locations during Friday.

Regarding temperatures, coolest temperatures during the longer
term should be realized this weekend, with warmest conditions
anticipated by next Thursday and Friday.

The highest potential for stronger winds(generally favoring
eastern sections) during the longer term should be noted from
Sunday into Monday morning and then again by next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Sat Apr 29 2017

KCOS and KPUB will fluctuate between VFR and IFR at times through the
morning with SN...particularly at KPUB  as snow continues to spread
up from the south.  However, conditions should continue to improve
into the afternoon with VFR to MVFR cigs as snow showers continue to
decrease. North winds will increase at 15 to 30 kts for both
terminals by 14-15z with some gusts to 35 kts possible during the
late morning through the afternoon.  -SN should come to an end by
02z with VFR conditions overnight.  North winds will continue at 15
to 30 kts through the night. Additional snowfall amounts of 1-2
inches will be possible at both terminals through this morning.

KALS will see periodic snow showers through the morning with cigs
dropping into the MVFR to brief IFR at times.  East winds will
continue to gust 15-25kt before shifting around from the north
around 10 kts later tonight.  KALS may see local accumulations of an
inch or two through the morning.  Snow showers will decrease this
afternoon with conditions returning to VFR by this evening. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM MDT Sunday for COZ089-093-
095>099.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Sunday for COZ072>075-079-
080-087-088.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ078-081-
082-084>086.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
060-061-063-065>068-076-077-083.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ094.

&&

$$


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