Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 251809
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1209 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
TODAY.  AN UPR TROF WL BE MOVING EASTWARD THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...WITH AN UPR LOW CENTER FORECAST TO BE OVER CENTRAL UT BY 00Z
TUE.  TONIGHT THE UPR LOW CENTER IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO WRN CO.

WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPR LOW...WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
BREEZY TO WINDY FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...MIN RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE SERN
PLAINS...EXCEPT AREAS NEAR THE KS BORDER.  THERE IS ALREADY A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FREMONT...PUEBLO...HUERFANO AND WRN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES WHICH STILL GENERALLY LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THRU CURRENT
FORECAST AND KNOWN FUELS CONDITION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING CRITERIA FOR A
RED FLAG WARNING IN SRN EL PASO COUNTY AS WELL...AND WL THEREFORE
ADD THAT AREA TO THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER HAZARD. ALTHOUGH THE FUELS
OVER MUCH OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS ARE NOT TECHNICALLY CONSIDERED DRY
AND RH VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT...THERE WL STILL BE WINDY
CONDITIONS TODAY AND OPEN BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA THRU MIDDAY...AND
THEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ERN
MTNS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO MOVE OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SERN PLAINS AS WELL.  BY LATE NIGHT THE NAM...WRF AND GFS SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT THE CONTDVD...WHERE
SOME PCPN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. THE HIGHER MTN
AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD WL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
RANGING FROM ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

...A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR MID WEEK AND BEYOND...

TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE NAM AND EC
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING TWO LOBES OF ENERGY LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY THOUGH ARE NOT AS DISTINCT WITH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION AND ARE SEEMINGLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE RUNS...OF THE LOW LIFTING OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. AT ANY
RATE...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONTDVD TUESDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS SPREADING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE PLAINS LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.
SNOW LEVELS TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH AOA 10K FT EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN DOWN TO
AROUND 7000 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMS OF 1 TO 4
INCHES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY AOA 9K FEET. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS...THOUGH WITH RECENT RAINS...FUELS ARE CURRENTLY NOT DEEMED
CRITICAL. TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY MILD EARLY TUESDAY THOUGH WILL COOL
THROUGH THE DAY WITH COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS
WAKE.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE PARTING SYSTEM MODERATES AND BECOMES MORE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AND ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 30S AND 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COOL AND WET PATTERN
FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LOW
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SW AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON DETAILS...AND HAVE KEPT A BROAD BRUSH OF CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW TO THE AREA...THOUGH DOES NOT LOOK AS COLD AS LAST WEEKS
SYSTEM. MODELS ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE
THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTN AND BECOME
GUSTY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. INCLUDED MENTION OF VCTS
FOR KALS FOR 23Z-05Z...FOR KCOS 02Z-06Z...AND VCSH FOR KPUB 01Z-
05Z. THERE IS ALSO MENTION OF WIND SHEAR FOR KCOS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z
TONIGHT. MOORE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-227>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE



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