Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 210526
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1126 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

ADDED SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR SERN PLAINS FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS AND WEATHER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...INCREASING ACTIVITY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST
ACTIVITY IS DOWN IN NEW MEXICO TODAY...WITH VERY LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAKING IT UP INTO COLORADO.  NEVER THE LESS...THERE WILL BE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...WITH THE
MOST INTENSE STUFF LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES...SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 160.  PRIMARY STORM
THREATS TONIGHT ARE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TOMORROW...THE PATTERN WILL START TO CHANGE AS A FAST MOVING PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST.  LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE NOTED IN THE MORNING...BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WAVE WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO START INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  BY EVENING...SOME OF THIS IMPACT MAY
EXTEND TO THE EASTERN RANGES.  SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY
HIGH EARLY TUESDAY BUT SHOULD DROP DOWN TO 9000 OR 10000 FEET BY
EVENING.  LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE
THE SNOW LEVEL...WITH MAINLY JUST RAIN SHOWERS BELOW.  ALL AREAS
COULD HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR 2 MIXED IN.  NO PRECIP ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL
PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

...QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
RR QUAD OF ASSOCIATED JET TRANSLATING ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST UVV QUICKLY MOVING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD. WITH FAST MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM AND BEST LIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED PASSING FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY WARM WITH SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO AROUND 9KT FEET TUESDAY NIGHT OWNING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTDVD. POPS QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUBSIDENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND PASSING SYSTEM. LATEST MODELS ALSO NOT AS
COOL WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MAINLY 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...BRINGING A FEW
POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KCOS AND KPUB...HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME LOW STRATUS COULD MOVE INTO THE VCNTY OF BOTH SITES
TOWARD MORNING. KALS SHOULD ALSO GENERALLY HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
ALTHOUGH THE BUFKIT SOUNDING IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME PERIOD...WL NOT
INCLUDE A LOW CIG IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28


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