Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 031140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
440 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Currently...observations and radar imagery indicate light snow is
still falling out near the Kansas border early this morning.  Obs
also indicate light snow continues along the Continental Divide.
Elsewhere, quiet conditions exist, with temperatures generally in
the lower 20s.

Today...and upper level disturbance will transition across
southeastern Colorado through this afternoon.  Energy embedded in
southwest flow ahead of the disturbance should keep light snow going
over the far Southeastern Plains through the morning before
dissipating and shifting east by this afternoon.  It should be noted
that the high-res models bring the snow to an end the quickest,
generally by 14z, while the NAM and GFS hold on to light snow out
east through early afternoon.  Accumulations of up to a half inch
are possible, generally over Baca County.  Over the mountains,
expect snow to wind down through the morning hours, with dry
conditions expected this afternoon.  The one are of concern may be
the Central Mountains where northwest flow may favor light snow
production into the afternoon.  Given the dry air moving into the
area, have a feeling it will likely remain dry once snow dissipates
this morning.  Any additional accumulations would be less than an
inch.  Temperatures will be slow to warm with upper 30s to lower 40s
for much of the region.

Tonight...broad, dry northwest flow aloft will continue across the
region as the upper disturbance moves east into the Central Plains.
Clearing skies and dry conditions are expected to prevail. Overnight
lows will fall into the teens for most locations.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 349 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Still a Chance of Snow & Colder Tuesday and Wednesday...

Although models continue to waver on the exact track, consensus
continues to be a that a shortwave will dig southeast across the
region Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing a decent shot of snow and
much colder air to the region.

After a warm day Monday, with temperatures well above average,
models bring a first cold front south through the plains Monday
evening. Except for colder air, not much impact expected with
this first front. A few flurries could develop along and near the
mountains as upslope flow gets underway behind the front.

Tuesday looks like a day of transition. The upper jet over the
western US will really start digging south in the afternoon,
allowing snowfall to get going along the Continental Divide.
Meanwhile, upslope winds over the plains will battle for dominance
with downslope winds off the mountains in the afternoon. Upslope
winds will likely hold on over most of the plains through the day
but areas along and near the mountains south of Pueblo may see
southwest winds win out. This will play havoc with temperatures,
leaving most areas colder than average while areas near the
mountains south of Pueblo could be warmer than average.

In any event, an Arctic front should make a good push south
through the plains Tuesday evening, accompanied by falling
temperatures and widespread snowfall. Snowfall intensity will
vary. It will mostly be light but could be moderate at times. The
nose of a strong upper jet will pass by just to the south of
Colorado, placing southern Colorado under the left front exit
region of the jet. This will be a prime location for precipitation
banding to develop which could result in some moderate snowfall
rates, just depending on where these bands set up. The way it
looks right now, the mountains and west will see a quick shot of
snow mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening, with the focus and
greatest impact shifting to the plains Tuesday night into Wednesday.
It is still tough to call snowfall totals so early in the game,
especially with the models continuing to waver on the exact storm
track. But, it does look like there should be some accumulation
for most areas and especially across the plains.

This system will likely bring the coldest air so far this season
to southern Colorado. Temperatures will likely be well below
average for most areas Tuesday through Thursday, with Wednesday
the coldest day. On Wednesday, highs for the plains and high
valleys will only be in the lower to middle 20s while the mountains
hold to the single digits and teens. Thursday morning will likely
see the coldest low temperatures with just about everyone in
southern Colorado landing between 10 above and 10 below zero.

On Friday, upper ridging takes over again with temperatures
moderating back to near average levels by the afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 349 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

KALS...expect reduced CIGS and VIS this morning due to stratus and
fog across the terminal area.  MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
through around 16z, with conditions improving to VFR for this
afternoon and tonight.

KCOS...low stratus will continue through the mid morning hours
before dissipating.  Areas of fog may be possible as well with
reduced CIGS and VIS until around 16z.  Expect VFR conditions for
this afternoon and tonight.

KPUB...low stratus around 3-4 kft will lift this morning with VFR
conditions expected through tonight. Mozley




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