Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 111742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

...Less Active Today...

Patch low to mid level cloudiness was noted over the the plains this
morning while variable high level cloudiness was over the high
country. Radar indicated dry conditions over the region, although a
few light showers were likely occuring across the continental
divide. Temperatures were mild across the plains and  valleys,
although mtn tops were quite cool with readings approaching
freezing, especially across the central mtns.


Soundings show the plains will be quite stable for most, if not all,
of the day. Best chance of precip during the daylight hours will be
over the mountains, especially across the San Juans and southern
Sangre  de Cristo mtns. By late afternoon, a few storms will be
possible along the I-25 corridor. Storms are not expected to be
severe, but some gusty winds and small hail will be possible. Very
local heavy rain will be possible with any of the storms today as
quite a bit of moisture is still available.

Max temps will be mild today with readings in the upper 70s to
around 80 on the plains and 60s and 70s in the valleys.


Best chance of precip, possibly lasting well into the night, will be
across the southern tier as a disturbance moves across northern New
Mexico. likewise, best chance of precip tonight will be along the
immediate CO/NM border. Over the remainder of the region it will be
predominantly dry, especially across the plains east of the I-25
corridor. Min temps tonight are forecast to be a tad bit cooler than
this mornings forecasted lows. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Saturday and Sunday...Ongoing weather pattern is expected to persist
over the weekend, as an upper ridge remains parked to the south of
Colorado. This will keep unsettled northwest flow aloft in place
over the state. Look for a daily chance of convection, as showers
and thunderstorms are expected to initiate each day over the higher
terrain, then push east across the plains during the evening. A
stronger disturbance aloft on Sunday will likely enhance storm
activity across the eastern plains during the late aftn and evening.
Expect high temps warming into the 70s to around 80F for the high
valleys, and upper 70s to mid 80s for the plains.

Flash flooding continues to be a main concern as the ground has
become saturated from repeated showers and storms. Burn scars will
remain problematic areas.

Monday through Thursday...The upper ridge axis slides to the east
across Colorado on Monday, reaching the US Central Plains by
Tuesday. This will open the monsoon moisture tap for the Four
Corners and western Colorado, while helping to finally dry out the
eastern half of the state. Convection will be much more tied to the
higher terrain, and spotty across the eastern plains. Expect a
gradual warming trend, with max temps climbing into the mid 70s to
lower 80s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to around 90F for the
plains. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Less activity across the plains than yesterday but more activity
over the mountains and valleys. Widespread MVFR to locally LIFR
CIGS and VSBYS across the plains at this hour. This layer of
moisture is starting to dissipate which should generally lead to
VFR across the plains by early afternoon. KCOS might be an
exception to this with the low level moisture holding in there a
bit longer. KPUB is starting to see holes in the overcast so
dissipation seems underway. Another round of storms will develop
over the mountains and valleys today, spreading onto the I-25
corridor during the afternoon. Storms may have trouble making it
too much farther east, though, due to stable air left over the
plains in the wake of yesterday`s widespread convection. Primary
storm threats for most storms will include locally heavy rain,
wind gusts to around 50 mph, pea size hail and lightning. However,
a few of the stronger storms could produce hail approaching an
inch in diameter and wind gusts nearing 60 mph. This evening,
activity will try to spread east across the plains, gradually
shifting southward with time, with the focus eventually ending up
mainly along the southern border areas toward late evening. Pilots
attempting to navigate through areas of precipitation can expect
to encounter anything from MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS. The KCOS,
KPUB and KALS terminals will all be subject to thunderstorms today
and the general conditions described above.




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