Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 171017
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
417 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDING DURING THE NEAR/SHORT
TERM WITH POPS AND TEMPERATURES PRIMARY CONCERNS.

RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION NETWORK DATA INDICATES THAT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH REMAINS OF FORMER HURRICANE ODILE
COVERING MANY SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT WITH MAJORITY OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING.

IN ADDITION...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE
SEASONAL MID-SEPTEMBER EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE GRACING
SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ANTICIPATE THAT ISOLATED TO AT TIMES
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NOTED OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN INTERACTS WITH THE DAILY
HEATING CYCLE AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE.
AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR FOR ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS.

AS TOUCHED UPON BRIEFLY EARLIER...MAJORITY OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER HURRICANE ODILE IS PROJECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT THROUGH
TONIGHT.

ABOVE SEASONAL MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THU AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVR THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE TRACK OVR AZ AND NM.  THE NAM AND GFS KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
CONTDVD IN THE AFTERNOON. MSTR ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
IS FORECAST TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE FAR SRN AREAS OF CO THU NIGHT
AND FRI. SO WL GO WITH SOME ISOLD TO SCT POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SRN BORDER. ALSO ON FRI...AN UPR TROF MOVING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MSTR ALONG THE CONTDVD ALONG
WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. HIGH TEMPS THU AND FRI WL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...
AN UPR TROF MOVES OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES
WHICH SENDS A FRONT INTO ERN CO EARLY SAT.  MSTR LOOKS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED FOR SAT...BUT WL STILL PROBABLY SEE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS OVR
SOME OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH SCT PCPN OVR MTN AREAS. HIGH
TEMPS WL COOL TO AROUND AVERAGE IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVER THE SERN PLAINS.

SUN AN UPR LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVR NV...WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR CO.
BY MON MORNING THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TRACK INTO NRN UT...AND THEN
INTO WRN WY BY MON EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS UPR LOW...MSTR WL
INCREASE OVR CO BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS.  MON NIGHT THE WEAKENING UPR LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVR CO...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA THRU TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77


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