Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 081738
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1038 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

CURRENTLY...NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN US. PATCHY STRATUS WAS
EVIDENT ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING AS PER LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS OF 4 AM TEMPS HAVE RANGED FROM THE LOWER 20S TO AROUND
30 F FOR THE PLAINS...AND IN THE TEEMS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOMEWHAT STAGNANT UPPER WX PATTERN IN PLACE AS
THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN 1000 AND
1200...ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 F FOR THE
PLAINS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH
SHOULD RELAX WINDS A BIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SFC WINDS
ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER WILL BECOME BRISK AND OUT OF THE NORTH ONCE
AGAIN BY LATE MORNING. MOORE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

...WARM AND DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...

PATTERN REMAINS RATHER PERSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG RANGE
WITH WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND EASTERN U.S. TROFFING. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD GRADUALLY WHICH WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH SFC LEE TROFFING AND WESTERLY WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH H7 TEMPS WARMING TO 0 TO +5C...COMBINED
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MIXING...SHOULD SEE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 40S AND 50S FOR THE VALLEY AND LOWER
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A PUSH OF COOLER AIR TRIES TO BACK DOOR INTO
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS FOR THURSDAY WHICH MAY KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THEY SHOULD STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER AIR DROPS THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON FRIDAY...AND MAY KNOCK BACK TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT ON FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN...TEMPS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD
FOR SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY EXCEPTIONALLY
WARM DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

LONG RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE ANOTHER TROF COMING OVER THE RIDGE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHICH MAY SPREAD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR ALL OF THE AREA. FOR
NOW...SYSTEM LOOKS PROGRESSIVE WITH MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY PASSING
OFF TO THE NORTH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION
MAKER AT THIS POINT. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1036 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND BUFKIT SOUNDING IS
SUGGESTING THAT KALS COULD HAVE LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUE MORNING. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE KALS FORECAST.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...28


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