000
FXUS65 KPUB 190455
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1055 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 805 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPDATED GRIDS TO TAKE DOWN THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS EVENING.
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEAST CO AND IS TIMED BY RUC13 AND
NAM12 TO CROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE BETWEEN 03-05Z. THIS WILL BRING
SOME HIGHER DEW POINT AIR INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS/ISO TSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN EL
PASO AND POSSIBLY KIOWA COUNTY. HOWEVER 00Z NAM IS KEEPING IT DRY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO FILTER IN. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

NOTE: THIS IS A CORRECTED AFD. THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. THE ORIGINAL AFD ISSUED AT 247 PM MENTIONED IN THE
HEADLINE "...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TOMORROW..."

CURRENTLY

DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR KAKO TO EXTREME NE KIOWA COUNTY AND THEN
TOWARDS LIBERAL. OVER NEARLY ALL OF OUR PLAINS DWPTS ARE IN THE
TEENS OR LOWER. A STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF KIOWA
COUNTY AND IS MOVING NNE INTO NW KS. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS
WERE OCCURRING OVER S EL PASO COUNTY AS KCOS WAS GUSTING TO 24 KTS
WITH AN RH OF 13%.

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS THE REST OF
TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. WE WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCTD
THUNDER OVER THE MTNS AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION.

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET A BIT
GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS. THERE A LOW PROBABILITY OF AN ISOLD TSRA
DEVELOPING WITH THE FROPA...MAINLY OVER EL PASO COUNTY.

OVER THE MTNS FOR TONIGHT WE WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLD
SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVER THE CONTDVD.

TOMORROW...

SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT
EXPECT WE WILL CLOUD UP PRETTY QUICKLY GIVEN THE COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. LOTS OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL OCCUR TOMORROW BUT PRECIP
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
25 MPH WILL OCCUR NEARLY ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. OVER THE MTNS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA WILL ALSO OCCUR. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 65-75 RANGE...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS OVER EL PASO COUNTY AND THE WARMEST TEMPS IN BACA
COUNTY. 50S AND 60S WILL OCCUR IN THE MTNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LOW ENSEMBLE
SPREADS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION TRENDS ACROSS
THE PLAINS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL PARK ITSELF OVER NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ONE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY
SHOULD ALSO BE MONITORED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES. AREAS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 9-10 KFT AND A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE LIKELY ON PEAKS. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY ON THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION...HAVE A FEELING AREAS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE AREAS IN THE ARKANSAS VALLEY REMAINED
SHADOWED OUT. FOR NOW THERE ARE SOME LOW POPS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRANSIT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STATIONARY LOW SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THE LOW
LEVELS...FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WARM WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A STATIONARY LOW
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE MIXING OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD PRODUCE A DRYLINE BOUNDARY EACH AFTERNOON FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS...SOUTHEAST TO SPRINGFIELD. THE GFS IS INDICATING
QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE MAIN
ISSUE MAY BE A FORCING MECHANISM. MODELS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BOTH DAYS DESERVE
WATCHING. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH 80S ACROSS THE REGION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY 00Z
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFT 18Z SUNDAY...BUT A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
WILL LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STARK

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...STARK