Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 280952
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
352 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO OUR EASTERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
SUNRISE.  FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY WHILE FLOW
AHEAD OF IT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
MILD THIS MORNING WITH 70S...AND EVEN A FEW LOW 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD THROUGH SUNRISE.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER OKLAHOMA WHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.  THIS WILL
KEEP PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO.  MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN JUAN AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAIN RANGES AFTER 18Z.  THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINING
DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN LATELY...WITH 80S TO MID 90S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ALL HIGH-RES MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND LIFTING IT NORTHEAST INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAS
ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR NORTH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SPREADS...WITH THE NMM AND NSSL WRF HAVING MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE JUST ABOUT
EVERYTHING ELSE HAS THE MCS CONFINED TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER
REGION.  PLAYED THE HEAVIEST POPS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOW END PROBABILITIES GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...COOLING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN HEATING UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A GOOD COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WED AS COOLER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DIURNAL CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY TO MTN AREAS AND ALONG THE FAR
SRN AND SE CO BORDER. SE SURFACE FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN AND SE CO WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.4 TO
1.6 INCHES. CAPE VALUES WED EVE WILL APPROACH 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS...THUS COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ALONG THE SRN AND SE CO BORDER WITH THE NAM AND GFS HINTING AT
POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE AREAS
SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST WILL SEE LIMITED ACTION IF ANY AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRIMARY
CONCERNS WED EVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FLOOD PRONE AREAS NEAR THE
SRN AND SE CO BORDER.

OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY WITH MOST ACTIVITY
CONFINED MAINLY TO MTN AREAS AS STEERING FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY
AND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN NM. A WAVE IS
PROGGED TO MOVE OVER SE COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SE CO...MAY SEE A FEW TS FORM
NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...LEADING TO WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. MONSOON MOISTURE ENTRAINED WITHIN
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS MOUNTAIN AREAS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LIMITING CAPE VALUES AND DIMINISHING THE
CHANCE OF TS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE THE
FAR SE PLAINS AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS AIDES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SE UPSLOPE FLOW KEEPING DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE FAR SE
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL.

KCOS...A COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT THE PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL SOUNDING DATA IS INDICATING STRATUS
DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 4 KFT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KPUB...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL AROUND
10Z WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT.  WINDS WILL TRANSITION EAST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 5KFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL TONIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LUKINBEAL/HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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