Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 180537
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1137 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Currently...

Cold front was moving across the Palmer Divide at 2 pm and was
progressing southward. Temps across the plains were well into the
upper 90s, with Pueblo reaching 100F. Up in NE CO, current temps
have fallen into the lower 70s. A band of showers/isold tsra were
noted across NE CO.

Rest of today into tonight...

Cold front will move across the SE CO plains the rest of this
afternoon and should reach the CO/NM border by late afternoon or
early evening. Although an isold -tsra/-shra will be possible, most
areas will not see any measurable precip. For this reason have kept
pop chances very low across the plains. The best chance of any
precip will likely be across ne Kiowa county late this afternoon and
evening. After the front goes by, winds will take on a gusty
northerly component and eventually shift to northeast and decrease
later this evening.

A cloud deck is likely going to develop over a good part of the
plains late this evening into the early morning hours, so there
will be  good chance of an overcast sky at sunrise tomorrow morning.
some isold sprinkles cant be ruled out.

Over the mtns, an isold -tsra  cant be ruled out, especially across the
c mtns and Pikes Peak region, especially this evening.

Sunday...

A stable cool day is in store across the plains. The morning should
be cloudy to mostly cloudy, but skies should clear by mid to late
morning. It will be noticeably cooler across the plains, with highs
only in the U70s to M80s. As for precip, it will be dry except down
along the S mts where there will be sufficient instability for a few
-tsra during the late afternoon. Storms should not be strong. Mtns
will also be a bit cooler than today, but except for the regions
mentioned above, they will be dry.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Not many adjustments required form previous meteorological
reasoning with main concerns during the longer term including but
not limited to continued above seasonal temperatures(outside of next
Saturday), isolated pops at times and winds.

Latest longer term PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that upper ridging will continue to
remain centered over the desert southwest into southern Colorado
into next Saturday, allowing above seasonal June temperatures to
continue into at least Friday. Next stronger north to
northeasterly surface surge is then expected to move across
eastern sections of the forecast district by next Friday.

It still appears that daily rounds of primarily isolated showers
and thunderstorms should be noted each day with a potential
increase in pops by next Friday and Saturday.

At this time, the highest potential for stronger gradient winds
over the forecast district is anticipated from Friday afternoon
into Friday night while warmest maximum temperatures during the
longer term should be noted from Tuesday into Thursday, where
maximum temperatures nearing or slightly exceeding the century
mark should still be noted over several eastern locations during
this time-frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

A cold front with easterly winds has backed up into the eastern
mountains this evening. Behind the front, winds are still east to
northeasterly 10-20 mph gusting to around 30 mph over the plains.
Upslope flow behind the front is generating some lower clouds
along and near the eastern slopes of the mountains. Generally VFR
CIGS expected but likely will be some areas of MVFR CIGS through
midmorning Sunday. These clouds will likely impact the KCOS and
KPUB terminals until around 15 or 16Z Sunday. KCOS may see some
MVFR CIGS during this period. The CIGS at KPUB will likely stay
VFR but could possibly go down to MVFR at times overnight. KALS
will likely not be impacted by the lower level clouds and remain
VFR. There could possibly be an isolated shower or storm at each
of the sites tomorrow afternoon but odds are too low to carry in
TAFs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LW



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