Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 080945
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
345 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT TERM METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES ARE POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF NORTHERLY
SURGE WHICH IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS OF 3 AM MDT
THIS MORNING.  STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WERE NEARING THE TRINIDAD
REGION AT 3 AM THIS MORNING.

RECENT NEAR/SHORT TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND REAL-TIME DATA INDICATE THAT FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE
STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  RECENT AREA BURN SCARS(SUCH
AS THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURNS SCARS) WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

COOLER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.  EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SHOULD
NOTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING APPROXIMATELY 20F COOLER THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT SHOULD EXPERIENCE COOLING IN
THE RANGE 2F TO 12F.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AN UPR RIDGE WL BE OVER THE AREA WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
WL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVR THE AREA...THAT WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING
AND INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY.  THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS WL HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PCPN.  HIGH TEMPS ON WED WL WARM TO AROUND
NORMAL...BUT WL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THU AND JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON FRI.

SAT THE UPR RIDGE WL STILL BE OVER THE AREA...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROF
PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SEND A FRONT INTO THE
SERN CO PLAINS.  THE FRONT MAY ENTER THE PALMER DVD AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH IT THEN CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THRU THE EVENING
HOURS.  DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING  SOME PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE UPR RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR SRN UT ON SUNDAY. MOIST
UPSLOPE FLOW OVR ERN CO SUN WL PROBABLY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
PCPN ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ERN MTNS THRU THE DAY.   MON SHOULD
BE ANOTHER DAY WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 343 AM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AT 09Z THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IMMEDIATELY IN ITS WAKE.
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT KCOS AND KPUB.  KALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR
THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM DIRECTLY IMPACTS ONE OR MORE OF THE
TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77


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