Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 140304
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
904 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Updated for cancellation of a portion of the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch and current pcpn trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

...Severe Thunderstorms for the Southeast Plains through this
evening...

Next upper wave evident in WV pics was moving through northwest CO
early this afternoon will be tracking across eastern portions of the
area through this evening.  Meanwhile...dew points in the 60s still
reside across the southeast plains...though as one goes westward
into the mountains dew points fall off into the 40s and 30s.  Main
concern this afternoon and evening will be potential for severe
thunderstorms as model soundings show rather high CAPE across the
plains...particularly east of a line from La Junta to Kim. Values in
this area will be running in the 2000-3000 J/KG range.  Low and mid
level winds look rather weak but do shift around from the southeast
in the afternoon especially across southeast portions of our area.
Overall this will yield 0-6km shears in the 30-40kt range.  HRRR
model runs suggest an early show for the mountains with
thunderstorms developing around noon.  These will be high based
initially, however as they roll off the eastern mountains into the
plains and tap richer low level moisture, heavy rain, very large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible.  Although low level
helicities are not all that great, any storms which can tap local
vorticity along surface boundaries could quickly spin up a non-
supercell tornado...so this potential will have to be watched
closely today as well.  Satellite imagery reveals a boundary across
northeast Las Animas, northern Baca and southern Bent and Prowers
counties.

Activity decreases quickly this evening so have tailed down pops a
bit sooner than previous couple nights.  Flow aloft on Monday
becomes more southwesterly as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward.
Still sufficient moisture for another round of isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across the mountains and plains...though it appears
there will be less forcing on Monday.  CAPEs will still be on the
high side across the southeast plains so will have to watch for the
potential for a strong storm or two along the dry line...but deep
layer shears will be weaker which should result in a lower threat
for severe weather than today. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Will keep discussion brief due to ongoing active conditions.
Primary meteorological concerns during the longer continue to be
pops, temperatures, heavy rain/localized flash flood issues and
the potential for intense storms at times.

Recent longer range PV analysis, forecast model soundings and
computer simulations suggest that generally drier conditions
should be noted over the forecast district this week(when compared
to the past few weeks) with increasing atmospheric moisture
then anticipated by next weekend.

Overall, expect isolated to scattered primarily afternoon into
nighttime shower and thunderstorm activity during the balance of
the longer term with precipitation generally favoring higher
terrain locations.

Still anticipate that some of the stronger storms will be capable
of generating heavy rain and localized flash flooding concerns
and storms may also be intense at times.

Also, well-behaved gradient winds and low-grade fire weather
issues are expected to continue into next weekend in combination
with maximum and minimum temperatures running near mid-August
climatological averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 344 PM MDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Isolated to Scattered thunderstorms will be possible at the
terminals through 01-02z...producing erratic gusty winds up to 30
kts (or stronger should a storm make a direct hit) along with VFR
Cigs/Vis.  KCOS and KPUB will have the risk for GS/GR in addition to
locally heavy rainfall.  However appears the greatest risk for
severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds will be east
of KLHX through this evening.  Thunderstorms should wind down for
all areas by 06z with VFR conditions expected tonight.  -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28



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