Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 122300
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Primary near-short term meteorological concerns includes pops, snow
amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at times(primarily
over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at times and
temperatures.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds eastern
sections to cloudy skies western portions in combination with
generally above seasonal mid-January temperatures and relatively
tame winds(especially when compared to the previous 3 days).

Recent real-time data, computer simulations, PV analysis and
forecast model soundings suggest that snow, heavy at times, will be
possible over portions of the Continental Divide into
Saturday(although recent trends have backed off somewhat on snow
amounts and coverage), and at this time will maintain existing
Winter Weather Highlights for these locations into Saturday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to amount of impact that vigorous
closed upper low produces over the forecast district beginning
later Friday night and continuing into Monday(for the Saturday
night into next week details please view longer term discussion
below). Closed upper low located south-southwest of Los Angeles,
California at 00Z Saturday moves to approximately 825 miles south
of Yuma, Arizona by 00Z Sunday with a lobe of energy generally
producing light precipitation over the forecast district from
later Friday night into Saturday. In addition, have also depicted
some basically light freezing precipitation over far southeastern
locations(primarily portions of Baca, Prowers and Kiowa counties)
from Friday night into Saturday.

The highest potential for gusty winds should be experienced at times
from tonight into Friday, in combination with temperatures running
near to a category or so below below mid-January climatological
averages over most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

Primary near-short term meteorological concerns includes pops, snow
amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at times(primarily
over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at times and
temperatures.

Forecast district currently graced by variable clouds eastern
sections to cloudy skies western portions in combination with
generally above seasonal mid-January temperatures and relatively
tame winds(especially when compared to the previous 3 days).

Recent real-time data, computer simulations, PV analysis and
forecast model soundings suggest that snow, heavy at times, will be
possible over portions of the Continental Divide into
Saturday(although recent trends have backed off somewhat on snow
amounts and coverage), and at this time will maintain existing
Winter Weather Highlights for these locations into Saturday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to amount of impact that vigorous
closed upper low produces over the forecast district beginning
later Friday night and continuing into Monday(for the Saturday
night into next week details please view longer term discussion
below). Closed upper low located south-southwest of Los Angeles,
California at 00Z Saturday moves to approximately 825 miles south
of Yuma, Arizona by 00Z Sunday with a lobe of energy generally
producing light precipitation over the forecast district from
later Friday night into Saturday. In addition, have also depicted
some basically light freezing precipitation over far southeastern
locations(primarily portions of Baca, Prowers and Kiowa counties)
from Friday night into Saturday.

The highest potential for gusty winds should be experienced at times
from tonight into Friday, in combination with temperatures running
near to a category or so below below mid-January climatological
averages over most locations.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 359 PM MST Thu Jan 12 2017

ALS...

Winds will be continuously from the south and east with ceilings
starting around 10 KFT and lowering to 06 KFT around 12Z. VFR
conditions throughout the forecast period.

COS...

The winds will shift throughout the forecast period, starting from
the east and gradually shifting towards the south.  Low level
saturation will decrease the ceiling to around 04 KFT, if the
ceilings lower any more, MVFR is a possibility, but for this
forecast, conditions are at VFR the whole time.

PUB...

Winds will be from the east around 10 KTS for the forecast period,
VFR conditions will be present as well.  Around 00Z low-level
saturation will start creating SCT clouds at 04 KFT, but should
remain fairly scarce.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ066-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ058>060.

&&

$$



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