Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261705
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1105 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

FINE TUNED POPS FOR THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLAINS MAINLY EAST OF THE INTERSTATE WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR
THE MOST PART. EXCEPTIONS MAY BE N EL PASO AND THE RATON MESA
REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP TODAY WILL FALL ALONG THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION...AND THE WET MTNS AND SANGRE
MTNS. OVERALL HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PIKES PEAK AND S SANGRES. THE
SAN JUANS MAY ALSO SEE SOME ISOLD/SCTD POPS...ESPECIALLY S OF THE
RIO GRANDE.

THERE WILL BE AN OBVIOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THREAT ON TOP
OF PIKES PEAK TODAY. MANY PEOPLE WHO ARE WATCHING THE PIKES PEAK
HILL CLIMB ACTIVITIES ARE VERY EXPOSED TO THE LTG THREAT. I HAVE
TWEETED THAT THE BEST PLACE TO BE IN THIS SITUATION IS IN YOUR
HARD TOPPED VEHICLE.

GIVEN THE SHEAR AND CAPE...A MARGINALLY SVR STORM OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS MOST OF ABOVE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

CURRENTLY...

STRATIFORM SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ERN CO BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH
MCS MOVING THROUGH KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING...WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A STRATUS LAYER. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE STRATUS
BREAKING UP AROUND 16Z WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE MTNS SEEING STRATUS
BREAK UP BY 17Z.

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER UTAH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS OUT OF THE NNW ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND AROUND THE MTN
AREAS. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM NEAR THE PIKES PEAK
MASSIF...WET MOUNTAINS...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...BEFORE
DRIFTING SSE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SPOTTY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE HAS 1000-1500J/KG OF CAPE WITH AROUND 25 KTS OF
SHEAR...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS ON THE STRONGER
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING...ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE L80S.

TONIGHT...

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COLORADO BORDER WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.  CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NOT MANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGHTS AS
POPS AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE PRIMARY LONGER TERM ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS...PV ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT TO ALLOW
FOR CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN UTAH AT 12Z SATURDAY SLOWLY
OSCILLATES INTO EASTERN UTAH BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING
BACK WEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY 00Z FRIDAY.

SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...THE AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
IN COMBINATION WITH THE DAILY OROGRAPHIC HEATING CYCLE...OCCASIONAL
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGES AND PERIODIC UPPER
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PRIMARILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY(GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS).

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MORE INTENSE STORMS DURING THE LONGER
TERM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENTS AT TIMES. AS ALWAYS...WFO
PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ALSO...THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED INTO THE WEEKEND
AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY.

FINALLY...TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE
JUNE/EARLY JULY CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN
COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED AT THE THREE TAF SITES...KCOS...KPUB AND
KALS

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH


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