Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 252103
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
303 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PALMER DVD AND WESTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE
OVER THE SERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE
HRRR AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVR
THE SW MTNS THRU THE NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOW SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE ERN MTNS.

ON WED THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA BUT A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SWRN CO TO NORTH CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY TO
THE CONTDVD. THE MAIN THREAT ALONG THE CONTDVD WL BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVR THE BURN SCARS.  OVR THE SERN PLAINS...DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WED
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AND HOT AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
...REST OF THE PERIOD MAINLY HOT AND DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS...

ONLY REAL CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WED EVENING...WHEN ONGOING
STORMS OVER THE MTS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ONE MINOR TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS...AND THIS MIGHT BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THAT TIME.
THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT REALLY CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.
SO WHILE IT STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRY WARM THU...THERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS...AND AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THU EVENING IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRI...OR RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. A PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW...AND THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP. MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AT KPUB FOR EXAMPLE IS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOWER
90S DOMINATE THE TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THE MONSOON
WILL BE PRESENT BUT DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY ACTIVE. WILL SEE DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS OVER THE MTN AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW A PACNW TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL
LIFT OFF TO THE E-NE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN PLAINS...SO
THE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS MINIMAL. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.  THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KALS THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE IN THE VCNTY OF KALS WED
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28


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