Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1123 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Updated for expiration of freeze warning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

...A Freeze in Some Areas this Morning then a Warming Trend Begins...

Still some pockets of freezing temperatures around this morning,
including at least 28 degrees so far here at the Pueblo Airport.
However, warmer air is already returning aloft as upper high
pressure begins to rebuild over the region.  The temperature in
Leadville right now is 28 degrees, despite the fact that it is over
5,000 feet higher than Pueblo. Yesterday at this time, Leadville`s
temperature was 17 degrees.  So, a big warmup is occurring in the
airmass just above the lower lying valleys areas, such as Pueblo. As
the day progresses, the cold air currently trapped in the valleys
will eventually be mixed away and replaced with the warmer air that
is moving in.  By this afternoon, temperatures in most areas will be
back above average again after a couple days of below average
readings.  Upper high pressure will keep skies mostly clear and
precipitation out of the forecast through tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will continue through the
weekend beneath persistent upper ridge. Passing shortwave moving
across the northern U.S. Rockies, well north of the area, will
send a shallow dry cold front through the southeast plains
Saturday night. But this will only bring some minor cooling to the
southeast plains with high temperatures well above average for

Upper flow transitions to southwesterly as the next trough/closed low
approaches the west coast late weekend. This will advect moisture
up from the south and into western portions of the forecast area
for Monday as minor shortwave energy gets picked up ahead of the
system and moves across the area for Monday night/early Tuesday.
Best chance of any precipitation will be along the continental
divide...and warm nature of the system will keep snow levels quite
high....however a couple inches of accumulation will be possible
across the higher peaks from Monday into Tuesday. System looks
mostly dry for the SE Mts and plains...though a few light showers
will be possible Monday night through Tuesday in and near the
mountains. Wind across the high country should pick up some during
this period as well...though with moisture advecting in at the
same doesn`t look like critical conditions will be met.

Another ridge builds in for Wednesday and Thursday bringing a
return of warmer weather to the region. -KT


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

With an upper level ridge over the area keeping the weather dry
through today and Sat, VFR conditions can be expected.




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