Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271819
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1119 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...PLEASANT BUT CHILLY START TO THE WEEKEND...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVR CO CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AS IT EXTENDS FROM SRN
AZ THROUGH NW NM...CO...AND ON THROUGH NE AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
SNOW HAS ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS OUR CWA...JUST A FEW SPOTS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. LOW CLOUDS E OF THE MTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AFTER
15-18Z AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WE SEE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WITH
UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE RIDGING. WITH SUN REAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND TEMPS ALOFT ON THE RISE...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME WARM-UP
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH IS
AROUND FREEZING FOR THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE E AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE PLAINS DESPITE CONTINUED
WARMING ALOFT. COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FOG DEVELOP WITH THE STRONG
INVERSION. OUT WEST...INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM...AND COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CONTDVD BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

GENERALLY MINOR METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED DURING THE
LONGER TERM AS PRIMARY ISSUES REMAIN LONGER DURATION POPS IN
COMBINATION WITH BELOW SEASONAL LATE DECEMBER/EARLY JANUARY
TEMPERATURES.

RECENT LONGER TERM FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUGGEST SUPPORT A WARMER AND GENERALLY DRY TREND
SUNDAY(OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS) AS NORTHWESTERLY TO
ZONAL UPPER FLOW INTERACTS WITH EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING. INCREASING CLOUDS AND POPS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY BY LATER SUNDAY AS
MORE FAVORABLE LIFT/PV VALUES DEVELOP OVER THIS SECTOR.

THEN A RETURN TO COLDER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED
BEGINNING MONDAY AS STRENGTHENING 1050+ MB SURFACE HIGH ENTERS
NORTHERLY MONTANA BY 18Z MONDAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO KANSAS
BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT BY LATER THURSDAY.

INITIAL COLD NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE SURGE WITH THIS
EVENT IS PROJECTED TO BE PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH PERSISTENT COLD EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. PROJECTED 700 MB TEMPERATURES OVER THE
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGES ARE
ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER MONDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

AT UPPER LEVELS...BASICALLY MOIST ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY/SOUTHERLY
UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED AS CLOSED UPPER LOW INITIALLY LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA/NORTHWESTERN UTAH AT 06Z TUESDAY DROPS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES AND BASED ON LATEST PV
ANALYSIS...ANTICIPATE THAT PERIODS OF LONGER DURATION SNOW...HEAVY
AT TIMES...WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SECTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. HAVE INCREASED INHERITED POPS
OVER SEVERAL LOCATIONS AND TIME-FRAMES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING HEAVIER SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE
REALIZED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
MOUNTAINS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THESE TIME-FRAMES.

ELSEWHERE...OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND(WHICH IS JUST OUTSIDE MY OFFICIAL FORECAST
TIME-FRAME). WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AS NEEDED.

IN ADDITION...WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.

MANY INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS
LOCATIONS(INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO COLORADO
SPRINGS...PUEBLO...TRINIDAD...LA JUNTA...LAMAR AND SPRINGFIELD)...WILL
HAVE CHALLENGES EXCEEDING THE FREEZING MARK(32F) DURING THIS 72
HOUR PLUS TIME-FRAME.

MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE CWA.
FINALLY...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED ...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO PLAINS...FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THINGS
LARGELY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL START TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS EARLY AS
LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY AS TIME GOES BY ON SUNDAY. TAF SITES
SHOULD REMAIN VFR NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT KALS COULD
SEE SOME PATCHY DENSE GROUND FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THIS GROUND
FOG THREAT WOULD INCLUDE OTHER VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WELL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
AVIATION...LW



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