530
FXUS65 KPUB 301106
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
506 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The start of the work week will bring slightly cooler
  temperatures and daily storms over the higher terrain. The
  plains will remain slightly drier Monday-Tuesday.

- Not much change in day-to-day weather during the long term
  forecast period.

- Generally seasonable temps with mainly dry plains and scattered
  storms mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Today and Tonight...

Temperatures across the region will be a bit cooler today, with 70s-
80s over most of our forecast area. Looking aloft, high pressure
continues to build in from the southwest as yesterday`s system moves
off to the east. Breezy and consistent easterly flow will be present
across the eastern plains throughout most of the day, allowing for
moist air to move back to the mountains/plains interface. Showers
and thunderstorms will form shortly after midday, largely over the
mountains. Though models show 800-1000 J/kg along and just west of
the I-25 corridor, currently outlooks only show general
thunderstorms. Flow aloft will be weak beneath the building high,
and wind shear will be minimal, leading to weaker, slow-moving
storms. As such, our main concern for today will be flash flooding
over burn scars and other high-risk areas from repeated rounds of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Currently, portions of south-central
Colorado are under a marginal outlook for excessive rainfall today.
A few scattered showers and storms may also move onto the plains
later on in the evening, but should generally stay on the weaker
side and dissipate before moving too far east.

Tuesday...

Temperatures will warm slightly on Tuesday, with slightly drier
conditions over the plains as high pressure continues to build in
overhead. Highs will reach the mid-high 80s over most of the plains,
while winds at the surface turn a bit more southerly. Monsoon
moisture will keep moving into the mountains, allowing for scattered
to widespread showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Given
the weak flow aloft, another day of slow-moving storms with the
potential for heavy rain. The plains should remain a bit drier,
though southerly flow may bring in enough moisture for some isolated
afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Not all that much change is anticipated in the overall weather
pattern during the long term period. General midlevel troughieness
over the West Coast and ridging over the central plains will keep a
generally somewhat moister pattern over the higher terrain while the
plains will remain mostly dry this week into the July 4 Holiday
weekend and beyond. Expect max temps in the U80s to M90 plains, with
temps in the 70s mtns. Valleys should see temps in the L/M80s. At
this time, it appears the wettest day will be this upcoming Thursday
over the higher terrain. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 504 AM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025

KALS: Winds will remain light until later this morning, picking up
from the southeast. After about 20Z, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to spread across the area, including the San Luis Valley.
Showers will produce gusty winds in excess of 30-35 knots and
moderate to heavy rainfall, along with periods of MVFR cigs.
Precipitation is expected to dissipate by 06Z this evening.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are generally expected through 24
hours. KCOS will see some intermittently gusty winds to around 20
knots through mid-late morning, before winds at both terminals turn
more northeasterly. Mid-level clouds increase during the late
afternoon as showers and storms form over the nearby terrain, with
some isolated convection pushing east onto the plains. Chances for
precipitation at the terminals is still low at this time, but VCSH
will be possible after about 03Z. Gusty outflow winds could become
variable at times, and if showers do manage to drift overhead, could
see a few brief periods of moderate rainfall and MVFR cigs.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH