092
FXUS65 KPUB 171724
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1124 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

...Slight Risk of Severe Storms Far Southeast Plains...

Models consistent on depicting a severe weather threat over the far
southeast plains late this afternoon and evening.  This area,
primarily including Baca, Prowers, eastern Las Animas and southern
Bent Counties, will see decent low level moisture convergence as
moist SE breezes oppose dry SW breezes in this vicinity.  In
addition, 0-6 km bulk shear values will be getting into the range to
support supercell development. Forecast soundings indicate a CAP
will hold on most of the day out that way before dissipating late in
the afternoon. By that time, lifted indices at KSPD should be around
-5 with surface based CAPES around 1400 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear
values around 40 knots.  So, if the CAP indeed dissipates and storms
go up, they could easily go severe.  The primary threats with any
such storms would be hail an inch or more in diameter, wind gusts to
60 mph or more, locally heavy rain and lightning.  The National
Weather Service Storm Prediction Center currently has the far
southeast plains under a slight risk for severe weather today and
this looks good based on current indications.

Elsewhere, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be
possible today but storm coverage and intensity should be pretty
low.  Most of the mountains and high valleys will probably see very
little activity again today as dry air continues to infiltrate those
regions.  Surface dewpoints up there remain widespread in the 30s
with satellite derived Total Precipitable Water values remaining
below average.  So, for storms outside of the slight risk area on
the plains, the primary concerns today will be wind gusts to around
50 mph and lightning.  The dry air in the high country should bode
well for the burn scar areas today, keeping the flash flood threat
to a minimum.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Primary longer term concerns are temperatures and pops as varying
degrees of upper ridging occurs over the forecast district into
Wednesday in combination with gradually increasing atmospheric
moisture.

Overall, pops are projected to run near to below mid to late
climatological averages over the majority of the CWFA from Friday
into next Wednesday, with highest potential of more widespread
precipitation anticipated Sunday and Wednesday.

Have depicted primarily afternoon and evening isolated to
scattered pops at times during the longer term in combination with
continued minimal fire weather concerns and low-grade gradient
winds.

Also, maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to run above
climatological averages over the majority of the forecast district
during the longer term with warmest temperatures anticipated from
this weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at KCOS, KALS and
KPUB. KCOS may see showers/tstms in the vicinity this afternoon
and evening and will include a VCTS in the forecast. KPUB could
also see showers/tstms in the area late this afternoon and this
evening, but chances are too low at this time to include in the
forecast. It looks drier at KALS and at this time it does not
look like there will be showers/tstms near the airport today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...28