393
FXUS65 KPUB 260543
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Updated for ending of severe thunderstorm watch and adjusted POPs
to reflect current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Rest of this afternoon, with ongoing severe weather will keep this
short. An outflow boundary from the northeast has triggered some
isolated severe storms across the plains. CAPE values above 1000
j/kg, plus shear and the boundary will keep the severe risk
through the rest of the afternoon. Severe thunderstorm watch in
effect til 04z.

Tonight, some weak shortwave energy and a boundary across the plains
will keep the risk for isolated severe storms with large hail and
damaging winds in play.  Models have been hinting at more storms
developing along the Raton Mesa and lingering into the overnight.
Storms across the eastern San Juans and adjacent San Luis Valley
will also persist into the evening then wane.

Monday, another round of showers and storms is expected to develop
across the eastern part of the area with the risk for more isolated
severe storms.  There will be a lesser risk for showers and storms
out west.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Active weather will continue early this week with a break during
the middle portion of the week, and active weather reappearing for
the weekend. How the pattern evolves is still in question, but
active weather is looking more probable.

Monday night...expect showers and thunderstorms to be ongoing
across the region Monday evening, with activity spreading south
and east through the midnight hour. A few storms could be strong,
especially over the southern I-25 corridor, and out along the New
Mexico border. Expect all activity to dissipate or move out of the
CWA by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday...the upper level ridge over the area is forecast to shift
eastward with zonal westerly flow moving into the Rockies Tuesday
evening. A strong disturbance in the flow will help trigger
thunderstorms by the afternoon. In addition, the low levels
indicate a dryline will develop across the Eastern Plains,
generally east of an Eads to Kim line. Instability and shear will
be sufficient to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds possible. This activity will move
east through the evening with clearing conditions overnight.

Wednesday and Thursday...broad zonal flow will set up with
embedded energy passing to the north. A few thunderstorms may be
possible over the Central Mountains, east into the Palmer Divide
on Wednesday. Otherwise dry and warmer conditions will prevail
Wednesday afternoon with highs in the lower to mid 90s. By
Thursday, moisture will start to return with better chances for
showers and thunderstorms over the Mountains, however the Plains
look to remain generally dry and warm.

Friday into Sunday...high pressure over the Desert Southwest looks
to build northward into the Great Basin with generally northwest
flow across Colorado. This will bring an increase in shower and
thunderstorm activity was we move through the weekend as energy
moves over the ridge and across Colorado. Temperatures will be
somewhat cooler as well with 80s for highs.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sun Jun 25 2017

An embedded wave within the northwest flow. combined with moist
low level upslope, will keep MVFR and IFR conditions with showers
and low clouds and fog at COS and PUB through the early morning
hours, before stratus across the plains breaks up through the
late morning. VFR conditions continue throught the rest of the day
at COS and PUB, with another weak wave possible moving across the
area late in the afternoon, though not confident enough to add
more than VCTS to COS aft 23Z.

VFR conditions to prevail at ALS over the next 24 hours. Breezy
easterly winds to diminish through the early morning hours, with
the aforementioned disturbance bringing some showers to the area
late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW