000
FXUS65 KPUB 241242
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
642 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

LOADED LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO FRONT END OF GRIDS AND BLENDED
INTO REST OF FORECAST.  NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

...SYSTEM HEADED EAST...

SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA...BUT QUICKLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY.  SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OUT OF COLORADO BY DAYBREAK.

BEHIND IT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER COLORADO RESULTING IN
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
STILL QUITE WINDY OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS FOR A BIT THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST...BUT THEN CONSIDERABLY
LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRESIDE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  MAYBE A LITTLE COOL THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE WINDS CONTINUE...BUT A REALLY NICE AFTERNOON SHAPING UP.
GET OUT AND ENJOY IF YOU CAN. LW

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. INCREASING
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY AND AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES TO
PRODUCE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE WARM WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON
SUNDAY. MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM TRACK WITH THE NAM
AND ECMWF TAKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO WHILE THE GFS
IS FURTHER NORTH OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. THE STORM TRACK WILL PLAY
A BIG ROLE IN WHAT AREAS SEE PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SNOW...AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS. GIVEN THE BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF...ALONG WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK.

INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. ALREADY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS...GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30
KTS...TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. EXTREME
CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES. IN
ADDITION...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE HIGH...WITH SNOW CONFINED TO AREAS ABOVE 11 KFT. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM...WITH 70S TO 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL SPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PALMER DIVIDE...AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 50
KTS OR MORE POSSIBLE. WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY PLAY A FACTOR IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH
THE STORM SYSTEM WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 7 TO 8
KFT RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK THAT
THIS WOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS...WITH THE
MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULD ALSO KEEP
THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...THIS STORM BARES WATCHING...AS IT MAY BRING WINTER
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...LONG RANGE MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH WHAT
TO DO WITH THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS STALL THE
SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOLER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODEL DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE
WITH 50S TO 60S.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF LA JUNTA EARLY
THIS MORNING.  SYSTEM IS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AND SHOULD BE ENTIRELY
OUT OF COLORADO BY AROUND DAYBREAK.  AT THAT TIME...CLEARING
SKIES...WHICH HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WILL SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS...WITH VFR RETURNING TO ALL AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INCLUDES KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES. LW


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...LW