000
FXUS65 KPUB 090536
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1036 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

UPDATED TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND ADD THE MENTION OF SOME FLURRIES
ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AS LIGHT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
MVFR STRATUS ATTM. LATEST HIGHER RES MODELS KEEPING STRATUS IN
PLACE ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND TRYS TO DEVELOP IT FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE DEVELOPING CLOUDS WOULD LIMIT RADITIONAL COOLING
AND HAVE STARTED TO RAISE CURRENT FORECASTED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP A
TAD ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

UPPER TROUGH MOVING AWAY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
TAKING MOST OF THE SNOW WITH IT. STILL SOME OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND WITH MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST NORTH OF
MONARCH PASS INTO THE EVENING. WILL DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR THE SAN JUANS WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE...BUT WILL KEEP THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ADVISORIES GOING FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OVER THE
PLAINS AND EASTERN MOUNTAIN...GRADUAL SHIFT TO MORE N-NW WINDS HAS
ALLOWED STRATUS AND FOG TO DISSIPATE...AND WITH THE AID OF SOME
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN SPOTS...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER
30S ALONG THE NM BORDER. OVERNIGHT...SECONDARY UPPER WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SPREADING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COLD ALL AREAS AS LIGHT
DRAINAGE WIND DEVELOP...THOUGH WON`T GO QUITE AS COLD AS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

ON MONDAY...UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE STATE...BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. WAVE WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED MIXING WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS ON THE
COLD SIDE ONE MORE DAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
20F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

PRIMARY LONGER TERM CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS FORECAST
DISTRICT RETURNS TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES VALUES LATER THIS
WEEK AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

RECENT LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF COLORADO MONDAY
EVENING...WHICH IS REPLACED BY VARYING DEGREES OF GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

LONGER TERM SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY SHIFTS INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY LATER FRIDAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL TRY TO REMAIN WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT(OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS) DURING THIS
TIME-FRAME.

ANOTHER GENERALLY DRY(OUTSIDE OF SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS) UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY NEXT SUNDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...THE EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A NORTHERLY SURGE TUESDAY
NIGHT.  NEXT ROUND OF LEE-SIDE TROUGHING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT
NORTHERLY SURGE IS FELT FRIDAY NIGHT.  ADDITIONAL EASTERN COLORADO
LEE-SIDE TROUGHING THEN IS EXPECTED FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO NEXT
SUNDAY.

SO FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...OUTSIDE OF GENERALLY LOW GRADE POPS AT
TIMES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ANTICIPATE THAT DRY CONDITIONS
IN COMBINATION WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES(WHEN COMPARED TO PAST
SEVERAL DAYS) WILL BE NOTED OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY
INTO NEXT SUNDAY.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.  FINALLY...HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ANTICIPATED
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

LIGHT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS ALLOWED
FOR MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES TO
DEVELOP AT COS AT THIS TIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
WHICH SHOULD HELP RAISE AND DISSIPATE LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF COS TOMORROW EVENING.

STRATUS CURRENTLY REMAINING NORTH AND WEST OF PUB AT THIS TIME
THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVRF CIGS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ058>061.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
AVIATION...MW