Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 310253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCES IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO...AND A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS
THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. AS THE WAVE MOVES
EAST...A COUPLE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY
OVER EL PASO COUNTY...EAST POSSIBLY CLIPPING CROWLEY AND KIOWA
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

UPPER DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE PICTURES CROSSING FROM UTAH
INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. SURFACE AIR FAIRLY DRY WITH 30S AND LOWER 40S
FROM THE I-25 CORRIDOR WESTWARD...AND 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST OF THE
CORRIDOR.  STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-25 MPH. MOISTURE
ALOFT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.  SO...FEELING IS THAT PRIMARY STORM
THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO ABOUT
45-50 MPH. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW YESTERDAY...EVEN WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THIS RANGE...CAN STILL GET SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
HOPEFULLY...ANY OF THESE WILL MISS THE BURN SCARS THIS EVENING.
COULD BE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS UNTIL ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES.

SUNDAY WILL START DRY EVERYWHERE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND BUT
OTHERWISE NICE CONDITIONS.  THEN...IN THE AFTERNOON...UPPER LOW
PRESSURE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN COLORADO...ALLOWING AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.  MODELS
BRING THIS DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT AREAS MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 WITH SOME POTENTIAL STORMS...WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND
PALMER DIVIDE REGIONS.  MODELS INDICATE THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ENOUGH PUNCH TO PUSH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTH INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY SO THIS MAY BECOME THE AREA OF GREATEST STORM
POTENTIAL.  OF COURSE...THE WALDO CANYON AND BLACK FOREST BURN SCARS
ARE IN THAT VICINITY...SO CLOSE MONITORING FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE.  FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...THE PRIME THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT HAPPEN TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

NOT MANY LONGER TERM METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AS
PRIMARY ISSUES CONTINUE TO INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND BASICALLY
LOW-GRADE POPS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK BEFORE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

GENERALLY DRY ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED OVER THE CWFA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM LATER NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NORTH TEXAS IN COMBINATION WITH A MOIST NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE SURGE PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...ALLOWING INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO FLOW
INTO MANY SECTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ALSO APPEARS
TO BE INCREASING FROM LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
PROJECTED LOCALIZED CAPES...LIS AND BULK SHEARS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO INCREASE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG...-7C AND
40 KNOTS AT TIMES RESPECTIVELY.

STILL ANTICIPATE THAT ABOVE SEASONAL EARLY SEPTEMBER MAXIMUM AND
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
SATURDAY WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS STILL PROJECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS PROJECTED INTERSTATE 25 700 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO
AROUND 19C AT TIMES DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. WITH MOISTURE
LACKING...MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.  BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS AT KCOS...BUT WON`T
CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO
LOW.

FOR TOMORROW...A DRY START TO THE DAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AFTER ABOUT 20-21Z.  THE DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TO THE PALMER DIVIDE VICINITY LATE IN THE DAY.  THIS COULD BE
THE PRIME FOCUS FOR STORMS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK AND PALMER DIVIDE
REGIONS LATE IN THE DAY.  FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD BE OF THE
HIGHER AND DRIER VARIETY...WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS. THREAT FOR STORMS TO0 LOW TO PUT IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY



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