Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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330
FXUS65 KPUB 240559
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1059 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1059 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018


Updated pops across the area based on radar imagery and latest
higher res models indicating current band of snow lifting out
across the El Paso and Pueblo Counties will continue across
northern portions of the southeast plains and into northeastern
Colorado and northwest Kansas overnight. I did add the mention of
light freezing drizzle across the far southeast plains through
09z, as soundings continue to indicate the potential, before
increasing uvv associated with the passing trough will turn and
freezing precipiptation to light snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Currently...an upper level disturbance is currently moving into the
Continental Divide late this afternoon.  Meanwhile a lower level low
is spinning over the southern plains.  There are lots of weather
in between, with lower 30s for highs out east, to mid to upper 40s
where skies have cleared.

For tonight...the main question is what is going to happen.  First,
over the mountains, we will continue to see periods of moderate to
heavy snowfall.  Locations over the San Juan Range will see 2 to 4
inches with upwards of 8 inches possible.  Further north, only a
couple inches will be possible.  Areas over Wolf Creek Pass will be
slick due to the snow.

For the Plains, soundings indicate that the potential the for
freezing drizzle will be possible.  Most locations have freezing
drizzle back to La Junta, although it could be a bit further west.
For now, have the greatest potential for freezing drizzle to remain
in place for the far Eastern Plains.  Around this area, there should
be snow showers, backed to the Easter Mountains.  Lows will be
falling into the upper teens to lower 20s.

Tomorrow...the expected trough over the region is forecast to move
away from the area with westerly flow aloft replacing it.  The
snowfall will be replaced by clearing conditions throughout the
afternoon.  Westerly flow will mix down the the surface helping to
warm up the Plains into the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday night and Sunday...Another upper shortwave is forecast to
sweep across the region through Sunday, bringing 3 to 5 inches of
new snow to the Continental Divide and up to 3 inches of new snow
for the rest of the mts through midday Sunday. West to northwest
winds are expected to be gusty as this shortwave passes east, with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible for the higher terrain and adjacent
plains. Look for highs in the 20s and 30s for the high valleys, and
40s to near 50F for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...The upper flow becomes westerly on Mon behind
the shortwave, then southwest on Tue as the next upper low pressure
system drops south over the western US. Look for dry and warmer
conditions on Mon, then continued warm for Tue though models tend to
disagree on pcpn chances. The EC keeps pcpn out of western CO
through Tue, while the GFS introduces snow back to the state Tue
aftn. Decided to ease snow chances back in for the Continental
Divide Tue aftn and eve, while keeping the east warm. Expect max
temps in the 40s for the high valleys, and 50s to around 60F for the
plains.

Wednesday through Friday...Models offer different solutions for the
forecast area for Wed and beyond, so confidence is low. However, as
the upper low system passes to the east on Wed, look for a cold
front to drop south across the Palmer Divide sometime Wed morning.
Decided to stick with the extended procedure output, which offers
isolated pcpn chances for the plains on Wed as the front drops
south, then a continued chance for snow over the higher terrain each
day as multiple shortwaves cross the Great Basin. Look for maximum
temps in the 40s for the high valleys each day, while the plains
will warm into the 40s and 50s for Wed and Thu, then 50s to around
60F on Fri. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1015 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Upper level disturbance will move across the region through
around sunrise, bringing the potential for some light snow to the
TAF sites. Currently, the band of snow is moving across Pueblo and
El Paso Counties. Anticipate the best chances of snow will be
through around 10Z at KCOS and through around 09Z at KPUB. At
KALS expect only some snow showers possible overnight. After the
trough passes, clearing will occur rapidly in the morning as the
flow becomes northwesterly. West to northwest winds could gust to
around 30 knots during the day on Saturday at all the TAF sites.
--PGW--


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Saturday for COZ068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PGW



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