000
FXUS65 KPUB 240223
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXPIRE RED FLAG WARNING AND FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

POPS...TEMPERATURES...LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES REMAINS PRIMARY NEAR/SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
ISSUES.

FORECAST DISTRICT CURRENTLY GRACED BY WELL-ABOVE LATE APRIL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES(AS NOTED BY 87F 3 PM TEMPERATURE
READING AT LAMAR) IN ADDITION TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS OVER MANY LOCATIONS.  RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT
SOME CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF A NORTHERLY SURGE WHICH
IS NEARING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS.

RECENT REAL-TIME DATA...FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER
SIMULATIONS SUPPORT IDEA OF GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS(SOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF NEAR SEVERE TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS) FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT(PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS) AS NORTHERLY SURGE MOVES ACROSS.

IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER
MANY PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING...THEREFORE
WILL ALLOW EXISTING RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING.  ALSO LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO
THIS EVENING AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN IMPENDING GRIDS/ZONES.  A
SHORT-FUSE BLOWING DUST HIGHLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IF BLOWING DUST BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

FOR THURSDAY...AS DRY ZONAL UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...HAVE DEPICTED DRY CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS WILL BE OF LONG ENOUGH
DURATION AND/OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO ISSUE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME FOR THURSDAY.  AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

WITH AN UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA THU NIGHT AND FRI...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS. FRI AFTERNOON THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...AND THE WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON...
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FRI
NIGHT AN UPR TROF MOVES OVR THE WEST COAST AND BEGINS PUSHING THE
UPR RIDGE OVR THE AREA EASTWARD.  A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI
NIGHT ALONG THE CONTDVD AS MSTR BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPR
TROF.  HOWEVER...MOST PCPN WL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT MORNING OR SAT
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPR TROF MOVES OVR UT AND AZ...AND BRINGS DEEPER
MSTR TO THE CONTDVD.  WINDY CONDITIONS OVR SOME OF THE SERN PLAINS
SAT AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RH VALUES WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN THAT AREA.

AT THIS TIME...THE GFS HAS AN UPR LOW OVR EASTERN UT BY 00Z SUN...
AND THE ECMWF HAS THE UPR LOW FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...OVER NWRN AZ.
THE TRACK OF THE UPR LOW AND TROF CONTINUES TO DIFFER IN THE MODELS
THRU ABOUT SUN EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING WITH A FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK THAN THE GFS.  THEN BY 00Z MON...THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
THE UPR LOW CENTER ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL CO BORDER AREA...ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLER FARTHER NORTH. AS THE UPR TROF MOVES EAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN...PCPN SPREADS EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN MTNS AND
MAYBE THE SERN PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH POSITION IN
THE EC...PCPN IS MORE WIDESPREAD OVR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS...THAN
IN THE GFS.  TEMPS WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN ABOVE 0C AT 700MB UNTIL
LATE SAT NIGHT AS COOLER AIR SPREADS IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR SUN
THE GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF WHICH WL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN
SNOW LEVELS...BUT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS TO THE MTNS.

THIS UPR LOW THEN MOVES EAST OF COLORADO ON MONDAY...BUT THE EFFECTS
COULD LINGER AS THE EC IS SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD THAN
THE GFS AND IT KEEPS THE LOW OVR WRN KS THRU THE DAY MON...ALONG
WITH MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW OVR CO...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PCPN.
THE GFS MOVES THE LOW CENTER INTO ERN KS BY MIDDAY MON WITH MAYBE
JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS LINGERING OVR THE FORECAST AREA ON MON.  THE
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN LINGERS OVR THE AREA ON TUE AND WED WITH
SOME CONTINUED PCPN CHANCES...AS THE UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT OVR
MO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH AT TIMES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SWITCHING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.  IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS(CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF VERY
GUSTY WINDS) WILL BE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER THE KCOS AND
KPUB TAF SITES INTO THIS EVENING.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...77