000
FXUS65 KPUB 160401
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPDATED TO CHANGE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS OVR THE ERN MTS AND SOME OF
THE SERN PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT BASED ON LATEST FORECAST MODEL RUNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AS EXPECTED...PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CLOUDS HAVE
NOT HAMPERED TEMPS...WHICH ARE PRESENTLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S
OVER THE PLAINS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE
20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS...BUT WILL PICK UP A BIT MORE
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOULD BE A MUCH MILDER NIGHT TONIGHT
WITH TEMPS AT HT CLIMBING ABOUT 5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THEY WERE
LAST NIGHT...INCREASED WRLY FLOW...AND INCREASED CLOUDS. SHOULD STAY
ABOVE FREEZING MOST SPOTS E OF THE MTS. WILL SEE A FEW SHSN MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE CONTDVD...ESPECIALLY N OF KMYP.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING THROUGH ID...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE SE...REACHING OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVE. NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT...WITH MODELS REMAINING
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. WILL SEE PRECIP SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL TO
ERN MTS IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ALONG THE ERN RANGES N OF KVTP...AND ALONG THE NRN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO NR 6000 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME WET FLAKES POSSIBLE VC KCOS FOR THE LATE
COMMUTE. TEMPS LIKELY WILL HIGH THEIR MAX EARLY IN THE DAY...NOON
OR SHORTLY AFTER. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITH THE LAST
SYSTEM BUT LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL HELP WITH PRECIP COVERAGE
OVER OUR AREA. FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM...REFER TO THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE SHOW A BULLS EYE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO. THE 600MB SURFACE OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE OCCURRING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH STARTS TO
BE IN THE REGION FOR FAVORABLE SNOWFLAKE GROWTH. MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATE. WITH VERY
WARM GROUND...LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE ACCUMULATING.
TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE A PREDOMINATELY SNOW EVENT IS LIKELY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. CURRENTLY...LOOKS LIKE ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL HAVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE PALMER DIVIDE...SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PASSING OVER THE PLAINS. COLD AIR WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A MODEST WARM UP
BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMED MAXIMUMS ON THURSDAY...BUT NOT
TO VALUES IN THE GUIDANCE.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST US.
SOME MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE 12Z GFS...BRING SOME SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM EAST OF HAWAII INTO COLORADO ON SATURDAY.
THIS SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SAN JUANS AND SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE MILD AND HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAINFALL AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO COLORADO.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE TO LINGER OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. HAVE SOME POPS IN THE GRIDS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLER DAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EC WITH STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
WEST. GFS IS STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WHILE EC IS FURTHER NORTH.
CURRENTLY FORECAST IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WHICH IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

WINDS STAYING FAIRLY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT FOR THE FAR ERN
PLAINS. WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS FROM THE SW DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AFTER 20-21Z...COULD SEE SHOWERS OF RASN DEVELOP OVER
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY VC KCOS. PALMER DVD COULD SEE SOME SN AND VIS
RESTRICTIONS BY THIS TIME...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
WED EVE. BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL FALL 00-06Z THU. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ072>075-079>082.

&&

$$

UPDATE...28
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...ROSE