Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 020954
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
354 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

DRIER WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT WL BE OVR THE AREA TODAY.  DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACRS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS WHERE
A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED AND DEW POINTS NR THE EASTERN BORDER SHOULD BE
AROUND 50.  DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO MIDAFTERNOON...AND THEN
SOME ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS.
WITH DEW POINTS OVR THE FAR ERN AREAS BEING AROUND 50...CAPE VALUES
SHOULD BE AROUND 2000 J/KG...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOULD
ONLY BE AROUND 20-30 KTS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS
COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AROUND 1 INCH DIAMETER
AND/OR WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE.

ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO EN BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DRY WX THEN EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEST COAST MIDWEEK...WITH W-SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS DRAWING IN SOME DRIER AIR. AT THE
SURFACE...A NUMBER OF THINGS ARE SET TO OCCUR WITH TRICKY TIMING.
MODELS INDICATE THAT AN INITIAL COOL SURGE DROPS DOWN ACROSS NE CO ON
WED...REACHING THE PALMER DVD WED AFTN. AFTN CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AND TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90F ACROSS THE
PLAINS. WED NIGHT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL HELP PUSH
THE LLVL MOIST COOL POOL SOUTH...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR STRONGER THU
AFTN AND EVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE E MTS AND PLAINS AS LONG AS
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK OCCUR. FORECAST TEMPS FOR THU ARE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN WED...BUT MAY HAVE TO BE COOLED EVEN
FURTHER IN LATE FORECAST PACKAGES.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT
ON PLACING THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SERVE TO OPEN UP A SUBTROPICAL TAP OF
MOISTURE INTO COLORADO...THE STRENGTH OF WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
CYCLONES TRACKING UP THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW IS
THEN FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON MON...WITH A WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT MOISTURE FEED
ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. IT IS HARD NOT TO DRAW WITH A BROAD BRUSH THE
AREA OF PCPN ACROSS THE CWA WITH SUCH A PATTERN...BUT WESTERN CO
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE UNDER THE GUN INITIALLY FOR EXCESSIVE
MOISTURE...WHICH WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT THE CONTDVD. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS.
THIS AFTERNOON SOME LOCATIONS WL SEE BREEZY SOUTH TO SW WINDS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...28



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.