Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 222351
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
551 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.  NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE VARIED BASED ON CLOUD COVER...WITH 70S TO NEAR 80
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHILE AREAS OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER ARE
PUSHING 90.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  THERE ARE SEVERAL THREATS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM NORTHEAST EL
PASO COUNTY...SOUTHEAST TO KIOWA COUNTY...AND THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS STARTING TO MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  WE SHOULD SEE A
BLOSSOM OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH 4 PM AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD.  CLOUD COVER HAS REALLY KEPT INSTABILITY LIMITED TO
AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 OVER CROWLEY AND KIOWA COUNTIES...AND THAT
AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORMS.  THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

AS FAR AS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MID TO UPPER 50 DEW POINTS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW BEHIND A SURFACE LOW
NEAR LAMAR ARE HELPING PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW...WHICH WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM...SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND I-
25 CORRIDOR.  AREA BURN SCARS AND AREAS THAT ARE PRONE TO FLASH
FLOODING WILL SEEN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...AND THOSE
IN AND AROUND THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
QUICKLY EJECTING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  HIGH-RES MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE 6 TO 8 PM TIME FRAME.  TRENDED THE EVENING
FORECAST TO FOLLOW THIS PROGRESSION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY COMING TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.  THE EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WHERE MODELS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SATURDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING WITH THE TROUGH BASE
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO.  THIS WILL PUT MOST OF THE REGION UNDER
DRY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EARLY...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
POSSIBLY PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE WESTERLY
FLOW AND DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA...COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
VERY WIDESPREAD...AND RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LOWER...LIMITING ANY
FLASH FLOOD THREATS.  THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

UPPER LOW OVER IDAHO EARLY SAT MORNING WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE WEEKEND...KEEPING MODERATE W/SW FLOW
OVER COLORADO THROUGH SUN. STILL JUST ENOUGH OF A MONSOON TAP IN
THE LOW AND MID LEVELS TO KEEP THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA
GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUN...WITH BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER JET. WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG THROUGH THE
STATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...THEN LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO SUN NIGHT. BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SUN AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS AS WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW PUSHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WESTWARD AHEAD OF
RETREATING FRONT. MAX TEMPS SUN WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WITH READINGS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH RELOADS ON MON AS UPPER JET DIGS SOUTH
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. STILL A MODEST MOISTURE TAP OVER
THE AREA MON...AND WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA MOST LOCATIONS MON
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW QUICKLY UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST TUE/WED...AS ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A
SLOWER/DEEPER AND CONSEQUENTLY WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. STILL
APPEARS TUE WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA AREA WIDE AS UPPER
ENERGY MOVES TOWARD COLORADO AND COLD FRONT PUSHES BACK
SOUTH...WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIP INTO
WED...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY REMAINS IN THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. A TREND TOWARD DRIER WEATHER
WILL DEVELOP FROM THU INTO FRI AS UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...AND AFTER A COUPLE RATHER COOL DAYS TUE/WED...TEMPS
WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING IMPACTING ALL THREE
TERMINALS. REDUCED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED AS SHOWERS PASS
ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z/SAT.
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT AT KALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL OCCUR. FOR
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT DO NOT LOOK TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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