Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 071746
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1146 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS...PARTICULARLY
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ALSO COOLED DOWN MAX TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WHERE PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IS
LIKELY TO HOLD IN STRONG DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS WILL PLAY
HAVOC WITH INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONTDVD MOST LIKELY
TO SEE THE HEAVIER AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. AS THUNDERSTORMS PUSH
EASTWARD...SUSPECT THEY WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER STABLE AIRMASS AND
BECOME MORE STRATIFORM AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD. FOR THE
PLAINS...JUST NOT ENOUGH STABILITY THERE TO MAINTAIN
SHOWERS/TSTORMS AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AS THEY PUSH OFF THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL GRIDS PORTRAY THIS SCENARIO WELL. MAIN CONCERN
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND SUSPECT THAT
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE BASED ON GREATER
INSTABILITY...THOUGH EVEN THE SE MTS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY
RECEIVE SOME PERSISTENT MODERATE RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE RUNOFF
PROBLEMS. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

CURRENTLY...MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW HAS LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...DOWN INTO THE I-
25 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH LOWER
60S ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
UTAH IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.  AT
THE SURFACE...LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MOIST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS.  EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS...FOG AND LIGHT RAINFALL TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING THIS PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 8 TO 9 AM...WITH AREAS
NEAR COLORADO SPRINGS HANGING ON THE LONGEST.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS VARY ON LOCATIONS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WITH SEVERAL
MODELS FAVORING THE SAN JUAN AND SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGES...WHILE OTHER PREFER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO TELLER
COUNTY.  GIVEN THE MOIST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...MOST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
POSSIBLE.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR AREAS OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS LEE SLOPES THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT MOST AREAS EAST OF I-25 WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  COOL LOW LEVELS AND LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY
WITH 60S TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO...WHILE THE TROUGH OVER UTAH MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT.  EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  A FEW OF
THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS...NAM AND GFS...BRING A HEAVY BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE AS THE DISTURBANCE EJECTS
OUT....BUT ALL HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DIE THIS AREA OFF BEFORE IT
REACHES THE PALMER DIVIDE.  MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THIS EVENING...GIVEN THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY.
OTHERWISE...SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...CONTINUED COOLER AND WETTER THAN AVERAGE THEN WARMING AND
DRYING BY THE WEEKEND...

A SERIES OF MOIST DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...SO
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. OTHER
THREATS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING...LOCAL PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL MOSTLY BE LESS THAN
35 KNOTS...MEANING THAT MOST STORMS WILL NOT ROTATE SIGNIFICANTLY
AND REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...VALUES WILL HIT 35-40
KNOTS AT TIMES...RESULTING IN A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DRYING THINGS OUT
AND WARMING THEM UP OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
RETROGRADES INTO THE CENTRAL US PLAINS. THE WAY IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW...THE HIGH MAY DRIFT WESTWARD ENOUGH TO NEARLY SHUT DOWN
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOW MUCH DRYING WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS HAVE
BEEN INCONSISTENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER HIGH WILL RETROGRADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015

KALS...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
VARYING CIGS BETWEEN 2 TO 4KFT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE TERMINAL UNTIL
AROUND 03Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z. TOMORROW MORNING ANOTHER LOW STRATUS DECK COULD DEVELOP
PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH CEILING CLOSE TO 2KFT AT TIMES.


KCOS...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 02Z DUE TO LOW VIS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY MOVE CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL AROUND 02Z...WITH REDUCED CIGS AND VIS EXPECTED AS THESE
SHOWERS PASS. TOMORROW MORNING SE UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN...BRINGING AROUND ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TERMINAL STARTING AROUND 0800Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO MORNING HOURS UP UNTIL AROUND 16Z.


KPUB...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 00Z DUE TO LOW VIS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
VCNTY OF THE TERMINAL STARTING AROUND 02Z...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP AS SHOWERS PASS. SSE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL REDEVELOP
TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOW CIGS. TOMORROW MORNINGS EVENT WILL BE SHORTER LIVED WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. LUKINBEAL

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.