Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 241859
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1259 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Deep upper trough over the Great Basin early this morning will lift
slowly eastward through the Rockies today and tonight. Main band of
heavier rain has shifted eastward across the plains overnight, with
steady light rain over southeast Colorado and a few light showers
over the mountains and along the I-25 corridor as of 10z. For today,
drier air will spread northeastward across the Continental Divide
and most interior valleys, leaving only some isolated, weak -shra/-
tsra over the central mountains by late afternoon. Farther east,
plains and eastern mountains will keep enough moisture in place for
sct showers today and tonight, as shallow upslope behind the
cold front near the NM border persists. Snow will be limited
to the higher peaks of the eastern mountains, with perhaps
some light accumulations near the summit of Pikes Peak through the
day. Models hint at some elevated instability and potential for tsra
over the far eastern plains tonight as low level jet pushes
northward above the old surface front, and could see a round of
heavier rain near the KS border after midnight as lift increases.
Max temps today will remain below average across the region, as
cooler air continues to spread south across CO and clouds/precip
hold readings down over the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 500 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Generally active/unsettled meteorological conditions still
anticipated over the forecast district, especially by later
this week with above seasonal pops as well as below seasonal
temperatures still projected into Friday with warmer and drier
conditions then returning by next weekend

Latest longer term computer simulations, PV/precipitable water
analysis and forecast model soundings indicate that 2 upper
systems will impact the CWFA into late week with initial upper
system centered over north-central Wyoming Monday morning shifting
across North Dakota on Tuesday.

Then, next upper system centered over far western Arizona late
Tuesday is expected to be near the 4-Corners region by Thursday
morning before shifting into far western Colorado Friday morning
and then moving into the Dakotas on Saturday.

At this time, it appears that the highest potential for more
widespread precipitation(including lower terrain rain, higher
elevation snow and possibly embedded thunderstorms at times) over
the forecast district during the longer term should be realized
from Thursday into Friday and have trended recent grids/zones in
this direction.

Overall, relatively low-grade gradient winds are anticipated over
the forecast district during the longer term with coolest
temperatures expected from Monday into Monday night with warmest
readings projected by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Upper low pressure area spinning over northeast Utah and southwest
Wyoming at this time. Upper low will stay in approximately the
same location through Monday. Areas of MVFR to LIFR CIGS and VSBYS
will continue over the eastern slopes and plains over the next 24
hours with scattered showers and storms. Meanwhile, generally VFR
over the western slopes and high valleys, with isolated showers
and storms producing local MVFR to LIFR conditions. Challenge to
predict whether KCOS will go VFR briefly this afternoon. Area web
cam images show some breaks in overcast a few miles north of the
terminal. Satellite indicates some breaks south and west of the
terminal. Will the breaks reach the terminal? Tough call with low
level winds holding onto an easterly component. Similar concerns
at KPUB. In any event, sub-VFR conditions likely resuming tonight
to some extent or another.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LW



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