Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161805
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1105 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Snow is starting to decrease across the area...though some light
to moderate snow is expected to continue across the
Sangres...Wets...and southern I-25 corridor and northern slopes of
the Raton Mesa where NE upslope flow will continue through the
afternoon. High res models suggest snowfall will increase again
across the Wets...Sangres and southern I-25 corridor this evening
as trailing energy from the upper trof moves across. Snowfall
rates should be lighter...but with probable extension of impacts
into this evening have downgraded the Warnings to Advisories for
these areas and extended them through 11 PM this evening.
Elsewhere...although we have a few more hours of snowfall to
go...warmer temperatures across the lower elevations should
prevent much in the way of heavier accumulations. So have let all
other advisories expire at 11 PM. -KT

UPDATE Issued at 517 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Based on latest radar trends and short range guidance...removed
Baca county from winter weather advisory. Also increased snow
amounts a bit for the greater Spanish Peaks/s mtns/Raton mesa
region for this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

...Storm winding down but will likely linger over the southern part
of the region into this evening...

Currently...

At 3 am...snow bands with occasional moderate snow were falling
across the region. 700 mb low was located in the N TX Phdl and flow
was east to northeast across se Colorado. The deep upslope along
with the deformation zone was allowing for the banded snow over the
region. Temps however were quite mild over the plains (29-34F). The
grassy areas were accumulating the snow, but most roadways were
mainly wet. North to northwest winds were beginning to pick up
across the southeast plains.

Today...

Early this morning we will continue to see bands of snow over the
Plains with snow continuing over the higher trrn. Hi res guidance
shows the snow will start to dissipate over the region. The first
area that will see decreasing snow will be S El Paso and most of
Pueblo county as the north winds increase and these areas get
shadowed. Later this morning the snow will end over the plains
mainly north of highway 50. The snow will linger over the Spanish
Peaks/Raton Mesa areas, and on top of the Palmer Divide as the
northerly lower level flow, combined with upper level troughieness
lingering over the area, allows for snow showers to continue. Snow
will also linger across the east slopes of the San Juans.

I will expire the snow advisory for S El Paso and most of Pueblo
county at 15 UTC...and keep the rest of the advisories intact until
18Z. We may have to keep some hilites going a little longer across
the Spanish Peaks/Raton Mesa region if the hi res guidance is
correct.

Temps today will remain cool across all of the area, with max
readings only reaching into the 30s valleys and plains, and 20s
mtns. Warmest temps will be in the Canon City/Pueblo areas and S El
Paso county where max temps may reach 40F.

Tonight...

Snow showers will continue across the Spanish Peak/Raton Mesa region
and east slopes of the San Juans into the evening hours and may last
into the early morning hours. Moisture is fcst to linger over the
entire area and this should keep quite a bit of clouds over the
region into the nighttime hours. Temps tonight will fall into the
20s most areas with teens in the valleys. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

Models in better agreement through the extended period and
ensemble spreads are much less than previous cycles. There is
still some uncertainty with details, but the pattern looks to
remain active late in the week into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday...the main upper level storm system is
forecast to eject out of region on Tuesday while an upper
disturbance drifts across New Mexico into the Central Plains.
Expect lingering snow over the southern mountains to dissipate
through Tuesday morning with dry conditions expected to prevail by
the afternoon. High pressure over the Great Basin will shift east
across Colorado on Wednesday, and push east into the Central
Plains on Thursday as the next upper disturbance approaches the
area. Expect dry conditions on Wednesday, while isolated showers
may move into the Continental Divide by Thursday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will start to warm on Tuesday with 40s for
highs across the Plains. Further warming will bring temperatures
into the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...a series of upper level disturbances will
pass across the region during the second half of the extended. The
first will be Thursday night into Friday. This will primarily
bring snow to the Continental Divide Thursday night into Friday,
with the GFS and ECMWF bringing a band northeast across the Palmer
Divide Friday evening. Modest accumulations are possible over the
mountain areas. A secondary disturbance is forecast to move across
the Desert Southwest Saturday into Sunday. The main focus with
this storm system looks to be south over New Mexico, but it should
influence our mountain areas as well. Locations over the San Juans
and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains could see periods of
heavier snowfall over the weekend. A cold front will move across
the area Saturday which may bring a few showers to the Plains.
Temperatures will be cooler with 40s for the lower elevations
Friday through the weekend.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2017

While COS and PUB should see improving conditions through the
afternoon...there will be snow showers in the vicinity which could
produce brief MVFR conditions through the afternoon. KALS will
continue to see IFR to MVFR conditions through the afternoon with
-SN BR...though local LIFR will be possible under heavier snow
showers. Additional accumulations of up to an inch will be
possible at the KALS terminal...with Trace to 1/2 inch amounts for
KPUB.

Tonight another wave of snow will develop and spread northward...affecting
the KPUB area around 03z. Some uncertainty exists as to whether
this will spread as far north as KCOS this evening...so have kept
VCSH in TAF for now. Local accumulations of up to an inch will be
possible...mainly at KPUB. Cigs could drop into the MVFR to IFR
category for PUB. KALS will likely drop into the IFR to LIFR
category overnight with FZFG. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ072>075-079-080-087-088-094.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ065>068.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT



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