Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301023
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
423 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

W-NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOUTHERN END OF WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE LESS
PLENTIFUL THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO STAY
FAIRLY ISOLATED DESPITE THE WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THE AREA.
STEERING CURRENTS SILL FAVORABLE TO PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO
THE PLAINS...BUT WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT...SUSPECT STORMS WILL
WEAKEN QUICKLY...PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MANY LOCATIONS ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS TODAY A DEGF OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS. TONIGHT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE QUICKLY
AS ANY UPPER FORCING SHIFTS QUICKLY EASTWARD. AS LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS AHEAD OF NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER
TROUGH...SUSPECT MIN TEMPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS....AND NUDGED MIN T GRID
UPWARD A DEGF OR TWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SUNDAY...TROUGH PASSES MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE
INTO KIOWA AND EL PASO COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. NAM IS THE STRONGEST WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS A NARROW
RIBBON OF CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER KIOWA COUNTY. SUSPECT THE
NAM IS POOLING TOO MUCH MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM LAYER ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH 700MB WESTERLY FLOW. GIVEN HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPPED...HAVE ONLY ISOLATED POPS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE OVER KIOWA COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED. WITH TROUGH PASSAGE AND DAYTIME HEATING...SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER THE SAWATCH RANGE.

.MONDAY...UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE TROUGH WHICH PASSED
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE WILL RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER MONDAY
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL
PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BE CAPPED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. FOLLOWED
LEAD OF SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS TO NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER. NAM SUGGESTS MODEST CAPES IN THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 700MB. FURTHER
WEST...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY AND BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOW THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED. AS A RESULT...HAVE ONLY SILENT POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS WITH
WARM AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
STARTING THURSDAY...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL START TO BRING MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THE CR
EXTENDED PROCEDURE HAS A GOOD IDEA OF INCREASING POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND NEARBY PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL MODESTLY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...BUT STILL BE NEAR
OR ABOVE AVERAGE. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THE NEXT 24 HRS. ISOLATED
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS BY EARLY
EVENING. WITH MOISTURE LACKING...MAIN IMPACT OF ANY TSRA WILL BE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. BEST CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TSRA IS AT KCOS...BUT
WON`T CARRY VCTS MENTION IN ANY TAF AS PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...PETERSEN



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