Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 231710
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Thunderstorms Primarily over and near the Mountains Again...

Water Vapor imagery is showing generally drier air trying to work
across the area this morning.  So far, this drying is showing up
primarily across far northern parts of the forecast area, across
Lake County.  The satellite derived Total Precipitable Water product
currently shows less than 100 percent of average water north of a
line through Alamosa and Pueblo and greater than 100 percent of
average south of that line.  In general, the pattern is pretty
similar to yesterday.  That is to say most of the convection will be
driven by afternoon heating in combination with lifting forced by
the mountains.  The upper high over the western U.S. is
repositioning itself over Utah and western Colorado at this time. It
is in a position to advect drier, more subsident air over the
region.  It is not in a position to completely suppress convection,
just enough to subdue it a little and confine it mainly to the
mountains.  So, another day much like yesterday with afternoon and
evening thunderstorms pulsing up over the mountains, with some
activity skirting the adjacent plains, especially late in the day.
Primary concerns are the same as the past several days, lightning
and locally heavy rain resulting in flash flooding, particularly
over the burn scars.  With the upper high driving in slightly cooler
air from the north and east, temperatures should be a little cooler
today, near or possibly a little below average.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Monday and Tuesday...Relatively flat ridge of high pressure over the
region, with the ridge axis somewhere along the CO/KS state line,
will keep warm temps in place. Monsoon moisture is expected to
continue to stream up across the Four Corners and into western
Colorado, with the best chances for convection restricted to the
higher terrain and little for the eastern plains. Increasing
moisture and weak steering flow will once again create a risk of
flash flooding over area burn scars. Look for max temps in the 70s
to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the
plains.

Wednesday through Saturday...The ridge starts to build back to the
west into the Great Basin, while multiple shortwaves crest the ridge
and move across WY and CO. A cold front Wed, with the resulting
upslope flow Wed night through Thu, will cool temps, and increase
convection chances for all of the area including the plains for both
Wed and Thu. Once again, potential flash flooding with remain a
concern. Temps start to slowly warm back up for Fri and Sat, as
convection mainly retreats back to the higher terrain. Temps across
the high valleys are forecast to remain in the 70s to lower 80s. For
the plains, max temps will be in the 80s for Wed and Thu, then warm
slightly into the 80s to around 90F for Fri and Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites today. Main concern will
be potential for isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
These will be confined mainly to mountain and valley areas where
cigs could briefly drop into the MVFR category with TSRA. Gusty
outflow winds up to 40 kts will be possible near the stronger
cells. KALS has the best chance for -TSRA and will carry this in a
tempo group until 01Z though isolated showers may carry over into
the evening hours across the valley. KCOS could also see a VCTS
after 21z though it looks less likely here. And KPUB will have
the least chance for seeing -TSRA so will leave out of the TAF for
now. Most activity should die off over the mountains by 06z with
some VFR convective debris cloudiness lingering into the early
morning hours. Winds will generally be diurnally driven, except
near thunderstorms. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT



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