000
FXUS65 KPUB 201714
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1114 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATED TO ADJUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT DOWNSLOPES
OFF THE PALMER. THE LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SPOTTY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BOUNDARY...SO LOWERED POPS TO MATCH THE MORE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY. THREATS WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME
GRAUPEL AS WELL ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL ABOVE 10 KFT.  MOZLEY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING SHORT
WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ALONG WITH MORE ENERGY DIGGING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TRANSLATING INTO THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. REGIONAL
RADARS AND SATELLITE INDICATING BANDED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SLIDING
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS AT
THIS TIME.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITH BROAD UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE STATE AS
AS BACK SIDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AND CONTINUES OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. LINE OF BANDED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COLORADO
PROGGED TO SHEAR APART THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS THOUGH CANT RULE
OUT A SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL MTS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK
AND PALMER DVD REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...THOUGH STILL SCATTERED IN NATURE...LOOKS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES SUPPORTING MORE
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...THOUGH NOT EXPECTING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LACKING AND DEVELOPING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO COOL WITH PASSING
SYSTEM AND WITH H7 TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN -2C AND +2C...COOLEST
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO...SHOULD SEE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID...COULD
SEE SOME SNOW MIXING DOWN TO AROUND 9KFT WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW GENERALLY AOA 10KFT.

PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...SAVE SOME SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PARTIAL
CLEARING SKIES TO LEAD TO CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH HIGH MT
VALLEY LOCALES LIKELY SEEING SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MIDSECTION OF THE WEEK WILL BE ONE OF
TRANSITION AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUES...THEN A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND SLIDES ACROSS COLORADO ON WED AND
THU. EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TUE AFTN AND EVE...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S. FOR WED AND
THU...THE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD BUMPING MAX TEMPS INTO THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 F. THE THREAT OF CONVECTION LINGERS HOWEVER...AS THE
MODELS INDICATE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WED. AS SFC HIGH PRES DROPS DOWN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON THU...E-SE SFC FLOW TAPS INTO AVAILABLE GULF MOISTURE
ALLOWING ISOLATED POPS TO PUSH IN FROM THE EAST...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PERSIST LATE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SE CORNER.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE
EAST...WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS. MAX
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE E PLAINS. THERE IS STILL
A REMAINING THREAT OF CONVECTION LAYING ACROSS THE SE CORNER...SO
KEPT ISOLATED POPS THERE FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR CONSISTENCY FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AS THE SE
CORNER MAY BE LINING UP FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN. IN
ADDITION...ALL THREE DAYS...FRI THROUGH SUN...WILL ALSO BE FLIRTING
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1017 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

KALS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
MODELS INDICATING ACTIVITY POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
22-01Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

KCOS...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE PRODUCING LOWERED CIGS TO 5 KFT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATING THAT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN
21-01Z THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY CORES THAT MOVE
OVER THE TERMINAL. EXPECT CLEARING CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

KPUB...BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND MAY IMPACT THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 22-02Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY
THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. EXPECT
CLEARING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY