Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 261728

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Issued at 713 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Adjusted POPs slightly downward this morning. As expected, NAM
precip was significantly overdone. Sat images show increased
lift/wv transport ahead of the trough axis now moving through expect shower/TS activity to increase later this morning
and afternoon. Rose


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

...More storms today...

Models showing some big discrepancies in storm coverage and
distribution today. 12km NAM seems poorly initialized and has
extensive convection over SE CO by 18Z. contrast...has just
isold showers/storms developing by mid day. This looks a bit
underdone given respectable llvl moisture and a source of lift as
the main trough axis moves through the Central Rockies today. High-
res WRF looks like a reasonable compromise and have leaned towards
that solution for POPs. Initial wave of showers and storms will
develop over the Central Mts this morning, then shift northeastward
into Teller and El Paso Counties by late morning to early afternoon.
Storms should be a little stronger today so will have to keep a
close eye on the burn scars through the day.

A second round of storms will develop over the southern I-25 corridor
by early afternoon, then shift eastward into the southeast Plains
by late afternoon to early evening. Have boosted POPs over eastern
Las Animas, Baca, and Prowers Counties in line with this scenario.
Timing of upper wave is a little out of sync with daytime heating,
but we should see marginal severe parameters over the eastern Plains
today, so there could be a strong to severe storm later this
afternoon, most likely near the KS border. Convection should wind
down pretty quickly after sunset as the best upper forcing shifts
to the east, with only isold showers and a couple storms lingering
over the higher terrain and far SE Plains this evening.

Highs today will be a bit warmer than they were on the
lower 80s over portions of the Plains and 60s to lower 70s for the
high valleys. Rose

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

...Gradually warming up and with less storms...

Broad troughieness which has been over the western CONUS the last
several days will gradually transition to a more weak westerly flow
pattern. This will allow for gradually increasing temperatures and
less thunderstorm coverage over the entire region.

Although all longer range guidance shows this general pattern
developing over the fcst district,the GFS is a bit wetter than
the EC guidance. The EC shows much more significant
drying, especially during the Labor Day weekend time period. Mid
90s will be possible once again on the plains by late next week.

The primary threats during this period will be cloud to ground
lightning and some locally gusty winds. However, a strong
thunderstorm developing over a burn scar could still cause flash
flooding problems. Organized severe storms are not expected as
deep shear will be lacking. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1113 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Monsoon moisture remains over the flight area today. Isolated
showers and storms were starting to develop over parts of the
area late Friday morning.  Continued development is expected
through the afternoon. The most widespread storms today are
expected over the far southeast plains. Elsewhere, storms
will be more isolated. Primary storm threats from most storms
today will be lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph, brief
heavy rain and possibly some small hail. However, 1 or 2
of the stronger storms, especially over the far southeast
plains, could produce gusts up to 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in
diameter. The KCOS, KPUB and KALS TAF sites will all see a chance
for storms today, primarily after 20z and prior to 02z. Flight
conditions will generally be VFR but areas of MVFR, IFR and LIFR
conditions will be encountered in areas clouds and precipitation.


.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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