Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 250112 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 912 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the southeastern United States resulting in much warmer temperatures for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 855 PM EDT Tuesday... High based cumulus per moisture seen around 7h off the evening RNK sounding should continue to fade with loss of heating making for a mainly clear and comfortable overnight under high pressure. However with better cooling in the valleys to near saturation, and slightly higher dewpoints out east would expect another round of at least patchy fog in spots by daybreak. This also supported by forecast fog stability values off latest guidance so beefing up coverage a bit more. Otherwise should again be a rather cool overnight with lows mainly low/mid 50s, except a few 40s in the valleys and outlying spots east of the mountains. Previous discussion as of 330 PM EDT Tuesday... Low pressure along the New England coast will continue to move away from the region, replaced by high pressure which is currently building over the southeastern CONUS. Rising heights/thicknesses will result in warming temperatures surface/aloft, a considerable change to the cloudy cool of recent past. The near term forecast will feature mainly clear skies tonight, and generally fair weather for Wednesday. Debris cloudiness from showers/storms over the mid-MS valley is forecast to drift east over the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, so expecting a bit more in the way of mid/upper level cloudiness as we transition into mid week. Can`t rule out an afternoon shower in the far west Wednesday, but day as a whole is expected to be mainly dry.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM EDT Tuesday... Little change in weather pattern is expected Thursday and Friday with ridge of high pressure overhead, and surface high pressure centered over the southeast United States. Winds aloft will be out of the west with 85H temps testing +16 deg C. This, along with increasing dewpoints, will result in warm days and mild nights, temperatures climbing into the 80s for highs, lows in the 50s to lower 60s. On Thursday there`s an upper level disturbance which is forecast to pass to our northwest. This short-wave will likely provide enough lift for scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly coinciding with the peak heating part of the day. By Friday, the aforementioned disturbance will have exited the region, support for showers waning as subsidence from high pressure aloft dominating. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday... Longer range models are converging on a solution which suggests there will be a tropical sort of storm system develop off the southeast Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday. If this occurs then forecast challenge will be focused around timing and track of this feature which could bring clouds/rain to our forecast area as early as Sunday. On a positive note, this feature may serve initially to induce increased subsidence across our area, so the longer it takes to make land-fall the better the chance to salvage our holiday weekend in terms of fair weather. The beach forecast on the other hand is not looking too great. Anyone planning to get an early jump on the summer beech season will likely get a rude awakening. Regardless of the outcome, sun or clouds, temperatures should be mild with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 735 pm edt Tuesday... High pressure will settle over the region overnight. It`s axis will start to shift east on Wednesday. Moisture will be on the increase across western parts of the region by the afternoon hours. Primarily VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow afternoon. The exception will be some valley fog late tonight between roughly KBCB and KLWB. Winds will be light or calm overnight. By late morning Wednesday, a southwest or west wind of 5 to 10kts is forecast. Extended discussion... As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday... Wind flow through Friday will be out of the southwest with the weather pattern more reflective of summer conditions, primarily VFR except for widely scattered afternoon and evening showers during the peak heating part of the day. Nightime fog also possible in the mountain valleys, but mainly after midnight up until an hour or two after daybreak. Potential wind flow change is advertised by the models this weekend per development of a storm system off the southeast Atlantic Coast. Models differ quite a bit on timing and movement of this feature so low confidence forecast beyond Saturday attm. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...JH/PM SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...DS/PM

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