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000
FXUS61 KRNK 231735
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
135 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains over the area through the evening. A cold
front crosses our region on Wednesday with scattered showers
mainly across the mountains. Temperatures remain a few degrees
either side of normal through the week with high pressure
returning behind the front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Abundant sunshine continues through the evening. Should still
see highs in the upper 60s and low 70s by later this afternoon
with breezy southwest winds.

Clouds still expected to move into the region tonight, along
with increasing moisture, ahead of the next cold front expected
to arrive Wednesday morning. Will have showers approaching the
southeast West Virginia counties after midnight and then showers
into the New River and Roanoke Valleys by daybreak.

Moisture is very limited with this front and some locations may
not see any rain at all. Highest rainfall amounts will be west
of the Blue Ridge, generally around 0.25" or less.

Temperatures a few degrees cooler tomorrow, but will be windier
with northwest winds gusting into the 20mph range. The front
clears the area by tomorrow evening and gradual clearing will
occur as the day progresses.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather on Thursday.

2) A chance of showers exists in the mountains for early
Wednesday and again by late Friday.

A cold front will cross the Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday.
However, the area of low pressure associated with this front
will stay well to the north in eastern Canada. The frontal
boundary will also not be able to tap into any Gulf or Atlantic
moisture. So, any consequential rainfall from showers will
remain confined in the mountains from Boone to Lewisburg. While
a little bit of moisture could spill eastward into the Piedmont,
it will likely just be in the form of sprinkles as it must
contend with the wind turning towards the west to provide
downslope flow east of the Blue Ridge.

Once the cold front departs offshore by Wednesday night, high
pressure will build southeastward from the Great Lakes. The
wind should diminish enough to allow good radiational cooling
that would push temperatures down into the 30s and 40s. Some
patchy frost is possible for western Greenbrier County of West
Virginia where temperatures fall close to the freezing mark by
Thursday morning. Dry weather will persist through Thursday and
Thursday night. By Friday, high pressure should wedge against
the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge, and an easterly flow
should keep temperatures near or slightly below normal. A warm
front will nudge northward around the western periphery of the
wedge during Friday afternoon, which could bring a chance of
showers for the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend during the weekend.

2) Chances of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
by early next week.

High pressure will slowly head offshore during Saturday, while a
warm front heads north of the Mid Atlantic. Only a low chance of
showers and thunderstorms is possible for the mountains by
Saturday afternoon. The wind should swing to the south on
Saturday night and eventually the southwest by Sunday and
Monday. The increasing warm air advection and an upper level
ridge building overhead will boost high temperatures above
normal to start the new week. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
intensifying in the Plains should combine with the increasing
warmth and moisture to promote higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will continue into the evening and early
overnight hours. Clouds will increase overnight and will lower
with pockets of MVFR cigs and some rainshowers in the mountains.
MVFR lingers across the mountains through daybreak tomorrow.
VFR with some 4kt to 5kft cigs east of the mountains, gradually
improving towards the end of the valid TAF period.

Winds today will remain west/southwest, gusting into the 20kt
range at times, especially across the higher elevations. Winds
decrease some tonight, still from the southwest.

Cold front crosses the area tomorrow and winds will shift to the
northwest, gusty at times in the 20kt range.


Extended Aviation Outlook...

Thursday looks dry and VFR.

A warm front approaches Friday, and although VFR conditions
remain, but could start to see sub-VFR toward LWB/BLF late
Friday into Saturday. -SHRA looks unlikely outside of sprinkles
during this time for BLF.
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&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG