Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 201949 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 349 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIPPLE EAST ALONG THE FRONT CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE EAST...CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM... BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE RAIN ENDING AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST. SINCE WE WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE (NORTH SIDE) OF THE SYSTEM...NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANYTHING...THIS EVENT WILL MIMIC MORE OF A WINTERTIME STRATIFORM EVENT WITH A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES HAVE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OUTLOOKED FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RAIN ARRIVING COINCIDENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE 50S...IT WILL BE HARD TO GET THE THERMOMETER TO MAKE MUCH OF A MOVE ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS AND CLEARING BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BE SPENT IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S WITH A LATE AFTERNOON REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE ONCE THE CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN. WENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER CLEARING...AND KEPT READING ANCHORED IN THE U50S/LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...LYH AND POINTS NE...WHERE CLEARING MAY NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY FAIR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT THERE ARE A FEW MINOR ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH. THURSDAY NIGHT STARTS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLEASANT BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING AND MAY GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES TO DOT THE WINDSHIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT PRETTY MUCH WASHES OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE TO OUR EAST LATER ON SATURDAY INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST AND CREATE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP. NOT QUITE READY TO BITE OFF ON THIS SCENARIO SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS AS WE GET CLOSER. BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOW BE ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY OR FORCING TO SPEAK OF BUT OROGRAPHICS AFFECTS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AFTER A CHILLY START ON FRIDAY WE WILL STEADILY BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GO FROM THE MID 60S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO MID 70S EAST ON FRIDAY TO THE UPPER 70S WEST/LOW 80S EAST ON SUNDAY...AND LOWS WILL GO FROM THE LOWER 40S/LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 330 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE WARM UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENING OUT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP US IN WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND OPEN THE PATTERN UP TO BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED IN NATURE ON MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS FOR WEDNESDAY SO WE LOOK TO CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE QUITE SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST... AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH OVERCAST IN ADVANCE OF FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT 05-07Z WITH RAIN DEVELOPING THEREAFTER. POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY WITH LOW CIGS/VSBYS... WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WITH GRADUAL RETURN OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT THAT TIME. && .HYDROLOGY...
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AS OF 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE FORECAST RAINFALL OF 0.25 INCHES STORM TOTAL IN THE UPCOMING `EVENT` FOR THURSDAY WILL BE HARDLY ENOUGH TO ARREST A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. MAY HAS SEEN A COMPLETE TURNAROUND FROM THE WET APRIL IN THE PRECIPITATION FORTUNES OF THE AREA. USING DATA FROM ALL THE AVAILABLE COOP SITES...MAY IS NORMALLY THE 2ND WETTEST MONTH IN THE HSA WITH A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) AVERAGE OF 4.22 INCHES (JULY IS THE WETTEST MONTH AT 4.41 INCHES). DESPITE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN RECENT DAYS HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE AREA HAS SEEN WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IN MAY. PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT ARE BELOW 25 PERCENT OF NORMAL MAY RAINFALL...INCLUDING THE CLIMATE SITE AT DANVILLE WITH ONLY 0.51 INCHES THIS MONTH VERSUS NORMAL OF 2.24 BY THIS DATE. USGS STREAM GAGES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...HAVE FALLEN BACK TO BELOW OR WELL BELOW NORMAL FLOWS AFTER A SHORT REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL IN LATE APRIL.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS AVIATION...PM HYDROLOGY...PC

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