Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 241123 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 623 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WINTRY WEATHER BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. AN SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AND COULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...NAMELY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 FROM BLUEFIELD TO LYNCHBURG. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 300 AM EST SATURDAY... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...AND SEE NO NEED TO EXTEND THEM AT THIS POINT AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING PRECIP WILL BE OVER AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS...ONE EAST OF VA BEACH...AND THE OTHER NEAR WILMINGTON NC...WILL STRENGTHEN INTO ONE LOW BY LATE MORNING...TURNING OUR WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH IN CHANGING ANY FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. FURTHER EAST EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH POCKETS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH DAWN. AS THE SFC LOW WINDS UP...NW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND GUST TO 35 TO 45 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ROANOKE CLOSER TO THE LOW. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING IN EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S WEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. MORE SUNSHINE WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE UPSLOPE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 320 AM EST SATURDAY... THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN SLOPES OF SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. HEIGHTS INCREASE ALOFT SUNDAY MORNING AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON THEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WARM SUNDAY INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THEREFORE P-TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN. THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN QUESTION AS WILL THE P- TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST. 00Z MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND OFF CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY. THIS SOUTHERN TRACK WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF HWY 460 IN THE PIEDMONT. ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY IS A TOUGH CALL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS LOWER THAN GUIDANCE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGES OF GREENBRIER AND THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WHERE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MONDAY. MONDAY/S SYSTEM SLIDES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA COAST AND BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER DISTURBANCE...OR AT LEAST A STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE...TO TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. COLD AIR LEFT-OVER FROM THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. ALSO LEFT BEHIND THE FIRST WILL BE DRIER AIR THAT THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL NEED TO OVER COME TO PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST THURSDAY... A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE EAST COAST WILL LIFT OUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM ZIPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE PIEDMONT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK AROUND WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE UPPER 20S. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL EAST ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONTS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED POPS IN THE WEST FRIDAY...AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVELS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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AS OF 1150 PM EST FRIDAY... LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WITH WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH 14Z AT KROA AND 15Z AT KDAN/KLYH. CEILINGS WILL LIFT SOON AT KBCB AS FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE EXIT EAST. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER BY MID MORNING AS DEFORMATION ZONE WITH SNOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. KLWB/KBLF WILL START THE DAY WITH LIGHT SNOW DROPPING TO IFR THROUGH THE MORNING. SNOW DEPARTS WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AROUND 18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEFORMATION ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....PERSISTENT UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SUB VFR CIGS AT BLF/LWB ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL BRING MORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW THERE MONDAY. WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ010>020-022>024-034-035. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-508. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...RCS

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