Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 271714 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 114 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM MISSOURI TO MARYLAND THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ON FRIDAY A STRONGER LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1030 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS INTO KENTUCKY AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...EXPECT THIS SFC BOUNDARY TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460 WHICH HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN EARLIER FORECAST. AS A RESULT...HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THIS REGION FOR TODAY. THE 12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWS DCAPES IN EXCESS OF 400 J/KG...AND WITH A SLIGHT INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILE...A COUPLE OF THE STORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WEAK SHEAR IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE NOTED IN KENTUCKY ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DRIFTS INTO OUR REGION. THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE A FAIR HANDLE ON THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND SHOW AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA SOUTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE...BUT NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND MAY PICK UP IN COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SIMILAR TO PAST FEW NIGHTS...LOWS WILL BE MILD...10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 400 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSIENT. THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF THINGS IS FOR THE TROF/CLOSED LOW IN THE WEST TO EJECT PIECES OF ENERGY IN OUR DIRECTION WHICH ARE INTERSPERSED WITH PULSES FROM AN EASTERN RIDGE. BY THURSDAY A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL GIVE ENOUGH PUSH TO NUDGE THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE REGION TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE FRONTAL ZONE SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY WITH THE CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...THEN ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE REGION FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S TO THE WEST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 310 PM EDT TUESDAY... UPPER RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS ANOTHER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FEATURES DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS FEATURES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE AND BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOWARDS THE REGION. WHILE IT WILL INITIALLY BE DAMPENED BY THE RIDGE...BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE WILL HAVE BEEN DISPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW...AND BY MONDAY...LOW/TROUGH SYSTEM PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION. ANTICIPATE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND... WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE WEST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF THESE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED STORMS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THE REGION. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE MONDAY ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HELPING TO MAINTAIN OUR CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL AVERAGE FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 115 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO KENTUCKY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT TO KLYH AND PERHAPS TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT KBLF AS THIS SLOW MOVING FRONT DIPS SOUTH BRINGING A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS ARRIVE...THEY WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AT KLYH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS ARRIVE IN THE MORNING IN THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED NEAR OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE WEST EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY. BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY. MORE WIDSPREAD SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS/PH SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...DS/MBS AVIATION...AMS/PH

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