Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000 FXUS61 KRNK 222337 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 637 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area through Friday. A cold front will cross the area this weekend, but be more a wind maker, rather than a precipitation maker. High pressure returns to the area for the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 230 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure was centered over eastern Kansas with its associated ridge axis extending northeast into the Great Lakes region. Low pressure was located off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula with an associated cold front trailing south to off the coast of the Carolinas. The pressure gradient between the high and the low has kept our winds gusty today. Winds will subside heading into the evening hours thanks to both a slackening pressure gradient and the development of the nocturnal inversion. Clear skies prevailed across the vast majority of the forecast area, and that trend will continue overnight and into Thanksgiving Day as the Central Plains high shifts eastward. The exception to this rule is the cloud cover that still exists over parts of southeast West Virginia, more specifically, western parts of Greenbrier County and a good portion of Summers County. The clouds here are all that remain of what was a larger swath of clouds over southeast West Virginia, and neighboring sections of southwest Virginia during the course of today. The prevailing gusty northwest flow has helped to maintain these remaining clouds. With winds expected to decrease, these clouds are not expected to exist too long after sunset. Overnight, with winds becoming light, clear skies, and lower dew point air working its way into the area, anticipate temperatures to fall significantly. Lows tonight will be close to the coldest of the season so far. Anticipate lows around 20 degrees to the lower 20s across the mountains with mid to upper 20s across the Piedmont. For Thanksgiving Day, expect plenty of sunshine with light and variable winds. Temperatures will not be as warm in the east thanks to the loss of compressional warming today`s downslope winds provided. Highs across the Piedmont will range from around 50 degrees to the lower 50s. Across the mountains, more sunshine to start the day, as compared to today, plus building geopotential heights will allow for temperatures milder than those of today. Highs of the upper 40s to around 50 degrees are forecast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Upper flow will become zonal across the eastern U.S. during the short-range period with high pressure to remain centered across the southern/central Appalachian region Thursday night. Mainly clear skies and temps near to slightly below normal with lows from upper 20s to low 30s. Some mixing possible west could keep temps up some along ridges overnight. High shifts off the east coast Friday with decent SW flow setting up and making for a nice day with highs in the 50s most areas. The NAM continues to advertise a stronger and further NW solution with developing low pressure along the SE U.S. coast Friday night into Saturday with clouds and measurable precip into our SE zones. Latest SREF also shows measurable (a few hundredths) amounts in the far SE early Saturday morning so cannot rule out of thinking completely. But the last few runs of global models, including 12z/22 GFS/EC along with WPC guidance have maintained a completely dry forecast, holding measurable QPF well to our southeast and will thus will continue with that trend for this package. With some high clouds and milder return flow expect Friday night lows will be somewhat milder, mainly 30s. Milder temps continue on Saturday ahead of the next front with 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Northern stream amplifies briefly yet again later in the weekend as a short-wave tracks well to our north through southeast Canada. This will usher in another cold front through the area early Sunday, knocking back highs 10 degrees or more from Saturday, generally low 40s NW to low 50s SE. Precipitation will be hydrologically insignificant with this front with only a few upslope showers or snow flurries possible. Temps will drop off into the 20s Sunday night. This will be followed by an expansive ridge of surface high pressure for the early part of next week with temps rebounding upward roughly 5 degrees Monday-Tuesday. The only hint of possible precipitation at this point appears to be Wednesday as another front approaches, but this too looks quite moisture-starved. No end in sight for what is turning into a very dry month of November. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 635 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure over the eastern part of the country will continue settling over the region tonight. This will bring light winds and fair weather with VFR conditions all TAF sites through Thanksgiving. Extended Discussion... High pressure will provide for primarily VFR conditions Thursday afternoon through Friday. Guidance from one model is hinting at precipitation and sub-VFR conditions may impact the area Friday night into Saturday thanks to a coastal low. This is an outlier at this point, and high pressure continue to control our weather pattern is more probable. A cold front will cross the area this weekend. Currently it is looking moisture starved, and may be more of a wind maker for the area. Anticipate gusty winds Saturday into Sunday in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas, higher gusts at higher elevations. High pressure returns on Monday with weaker winds, and no precipitation forecast.
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&& .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...MBS/DS SHORT TERM...PC LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...MBS/DS

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