Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180351
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1051 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

Above average confidence continues in the short term due to decent
model agreement.

Overrunning precipitation in the form of showers will continue
across our CWA through the evening hours as ripples of upper level
energy interact with a surface low tracking eastward across the mid
south. After midnight precipitation should begin the transition over
to drizzle as the deeper moisture becomes more and more shallow.

High pressure at the surface and weak ridging aloft should keep the
region dry Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday. Thursday night
precipitation chances are expected to spread northeastward as the
next system lifts northeast out of the southern plains. Models are
indicating just enough elevated instability over the far southwest
sections Thursday night to warrant the mention of thunder.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period, although
readings will moderate toward normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

The main story in the long term will be the upper level trough that
will be impacting the area on Thursday night into Friday. Models
have been slowly but surely coming into better but not perfect
agreement on the timing and placement of best QPF over the past 3-4
days with this system.

Showers will be increasing across the area late Thursday night into
Friday morning, as an upper level trough in the central Plains moves
eastward toward the area. During the morning hours on Friday, a
large batch of showers and maybe a few storms will move across our
region with the best coverage and QPF across west KY. Much like the
scenario that is causing our weather today, a sfc boundary will set
up to our south. There is not a lot of instability to work with so
thunder may be minimal. The main issue may be heavy rain but it may
take a few more runs for models to hone in on the exact placement of
that potential.

The latest GFS/ECMWF really move the precipitation through the area
pretty quickly on Friday afternoon...so much so that by 00Z
Saturday, we may be clear of any activity. This is definitely faster
than previous runs and the GFS ensembles actually agree with this
speed up. High temperatures on Friday will remain in the upper 60s
but that may have to be lowered in time given the cloud cover/precip.

As the upper level trough swings across the area Friday night, we
will continue to see some clouds but precipitation chances should be
confined to just eastern sections. Another shortwave will descend
south across the area on Saturday, but right now, it appears as
moisture will be limited enough to preclude any widespread
precipitation. But there looks to at least be some moisture, so will
leave small chances for now even though models indicate no QPF at
this time.

An upper level ridge will be building into the area on Sunday,
providing dry and warmer weather. The next chance for rain looks
like it will hold off a bit, which will mean that Monday and Tuesday
should stay dry, under the influence of the upper level ridge. The
warm weather will continue into the first part of next week as well
with highs near 80 degrees both days.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Tue May 17 2016

Area of rain SE of a KEVV-KPOF line continues to move east. Expect
MVFR cigs for the most part. However, some drier air working in
from east central MO and southwest IL has resulted in pockets
where higher VFR bases exist. Vsbys look ok overnight. Earlier
notion that drizzle may linger seems less likely given upstream
conditions, though will monitor. Lower clouds should break through
the day Wednesday as ENE winds up to 10 kts continues.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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