Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 291119
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
519 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
UPDATE TO AVIATION.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
A weak frontal boundary continues to sag south into the area during
the overnight hours, but will tend to dissipate to nothing by 12Z.
Winds will be northeasterly early today and then gradually veer
around to southeast by later tonight as high pressure over the
Midwest moves east into New England. It looks like we are only going
to mix up to about 925 mb today. Looking at model 925 mb temps from
yesterday...there was a "warm" surge out ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon that allowed parts of southern/southeast MO
(west of our CWA) to get into the 50s. That same surge of warmer
air is migrating eastward across our region at this time but
dampening. By this afternoon, we should see 925 mb temperatures
ranging from just below zero (north) to around 3 degrees in SEMO.
This is similar to what was seen on Thursday afternoon in our area
with some locations seeing a few degree jump. Therefore,
temperatures today should remain in the mid 40s with a few places
reaching the upper 40s.
A weak disturbance aloft will pass through the area tonight into
early Saturday morning with little fanfare. Meanwhile, winds at the
sfc become more southerly during the day on Saturday as the sfc high
moves into the Boston, MA area. After a starting off several degrees
warmer Saturday morning, we should be able to gain a few extra
degrees for highs on Saturday as 925 mb temps jump up several
degrees. In fact, some areas will likely see highs around 50 degrees
An upper level trough and weak sfc frontal boundary will enter the
CWA from the north on Saturday night into Sunday. Other than a
pretty good increase low level moisture, no precipitation is
expected at this time other than maybe some sprinkles or drizzle.
This moisture will likely result in a fairly cloudy day on Sunday
which will keep temperatures from rising too far out of the lower
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
At the beginning of the long term period a frontal system washes out
over the area. This combined with little to no upper support and
limited moisture will make for rather small precipitation chances on
Monday. Based on 1000-500MB RH, any light precipitation should be
limited to the northeast half of the CWA.
The ECMWF/GEM, although not in the best agreement, linger the deeper
moisture and weak cyclonic flow across the area Monday night into
Tuesday while the GFS continues to decrease deeper moisture and show
rising H5 heights. Due to model discrepancy and limited dynamics
decided to keep it dry for those two periods.
The first chance for appreciable rainfall should develop over our
far western counties Tuesday night as a developing system over the
plains moves toward the area. As this system draws closer and
eventually sags southeast into our region, precipitation chances
increase Wednesday into Thursday. During this time deeper moisture
really increases and flow aloft becomes nearly parallel to the
frontal boundary. Right now it appears the southeast half of our CWA
will be the most favorable area for precipitation, so adjusted grids
Temperatures starting out the long term below normal will moderate
quickly back to normal, possibly even slightly above normal by the
end of the period.
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Some early morning fog at KCGI this morning. Otheriwse mainly
clear skies with some high clouds possible from time to time. Light
flow regime expected throughout the 24 hr period.