Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 020459

1159 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Updated aviation section for 06Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

High pressure will remain strong over east Canada with a ridge
extension down into the central U.S. Cool/mild NNE flow will
continue across the region in the short term. H5 low will move SE
across the TN valley to the gulf coast then stall. Moisture/clouds
still forecast to move back west with time along with a chance of
showers mainly east 1/3 to 1/2 of the area. Will keep tonight dry
with more clouds east, few west. Chance of showers east sections
starts Friday and lasts into Saturday night. Temps were a blend of
MOS and base model output.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

The medium-range models are in good agreement from Sunday through
the first half of next week, but really diverge by next Thursday.
Overall confidence is pretty high. In general, we can expect dry and
rather mild conditions well into next week.

High pressure aloft will build over the region Sunday, as the
influence of the pesky upper-low finally pushes east of the region.
We did leave in a slight chance in the east Sunday to give the low a
wide berth and blend in with our neighboring forecast offices.

High pressure will be in control both at the surface and aloft to
begin the week. This will result in a warming trend to near normal
levels by Monday and into the lower 80s by Wednesday, and possibly
into Thursday.

The 12Z ECMWF and GFS agree in bringing an upper-level storm system
eastward into the Rockies by the end of the day Wednesday. The
problem is that it is caught within a progressive split flow. The
GFS has been consistently pushing this system eastward into our area
Wednesday night and Thursday, while the ECMWF has been slower to
move it out of the Rockies. The 12Z ECMWF has trended farther south
with the system and now has it over northern Mexico Thursday evening
with continued ridging over our region.

This is not a high confidence scenario, and neither solution can be
ruled out at this time. We will keep a slight chance of showers over
the west Wednesday night and over the entire region Thursday given
the GFS`s consistency, but significant adjustments may ultimately be
necessary. Even if the GFS is close, it does not look like a major
cool down for the end of next week.


Issued at 634 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2015

Main concern is the large area of MVFR and low VFR ceilings
advecting rapidly westward into the forecast area overnight. By late
tonight and early Friday morning, KEVV and KOWB should be overcast
MVFR, with a period of scattered to broken MVFR at KPAH and possibly
KCGI. A gradual improvement to low VFR ceilings is expected
throughout Friday. North northeast winds will remain around 10 knots
through the period, with some gusts over 20 knots expected on Friday.




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