Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 210441
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1141 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Above average confidence in the short term.

At the time of this writing a NE-SW oriented cold front is located
just to the north and west of our CWA. The front is forecast to
cross the region this afternoon and evening clearing the southeast
corner of our CWA just after midnight.

Per current radar trends showers and thunderstorms should continue
to increase in coverage along and ahead of the front. A few storms
could become strong to severe this afternoon into the early evening
hours with damaging winds being the primary threat. Precipitation
should steadily diminish from northwest to southeast in the wake of
the front with all activity having cleared our CWA by early Sunday
morning.

Through the remainder of the period high pressure overspreading the
region will bring a much needed break from the recent heat,
humidity, and widespread heavy rainfall. Temperatures will remain
below normal with highs near 80 and lows near 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

We will start out the long term period with high pressure centered
over the east coast states, which extends westward into our area.
However, that system steadily moves east during the day. Winds will
veer to the south and moisture increases across the area from west
to east Tuesday through Tuesday night, as the upper level flow
becomes southwesterly. A frontal boundary will be laid out across
the central Plains late Tuesday afternoon and convection will be
firing out ahead of it, however it looks like most of it will stay
to our west through the day on Tuesday. But by Tuesday night, we
might see some of the activity sneak into parts of SEMO.

By Wednesday, our region will once again be entrenched in a warm
humid airmass ahead of the aforementioned front. However, with no
real triggers, cannot see more than some air mass type convection
during the day on Wednesday, as we wait for the front to arrive,
which will be slow to move eastward. It looks like the front will
move through sometime on Thursday/Thursday evening. However, models
do not agree on the coverage of convection at this time since the
00Z/12Z ECMWF weakens the front substantially as it arrives,
lessening the QPF to next to nothing. It also indicates a much
stronger upper high in the Gulf coast states with our area in the
northwestern periphery of this feature, while the GFS indicates
the upper high farther south near the Gulf and the front
maintains its intensity as it barrels on through late in the week.
However, looking at the GFS ensembles, it tends to weaken the
front as well, so we will have to watch how this scenario is
handled by the models over the next few days.

These differences carry on through into the weekend, as the GFS
indicates high pressure and dry conditions. The 00Z ECMWF shows
another upper level disturbance moving into the region, which could
set off another round of rain. However, the 12Z run is dry so will
leave things alone for now and maintain a dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

BKN-OVC060 cigs will become scattered between 09z-13z. Dry air
moving in behind a cold front should prevent any vsby
restrictions with winds from the west to northwest at 5 kts or
less. After 13z, expect VFR conditions with northwest winds at 5
to 10 kts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST


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