Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 140449 AAA
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Quiet and cool conditions observed this afternoon as surface ridge
centers over northern MO and southeast IA. Only notable shortwave
trough in the region was currently rotating over southern
Saskatchewan, while much of KS was under weak zonal flow aloft.

Area of broken stratus over central KS migrates east this evening as
skies become partly to mostly cloudy. With the center of ridge axis
out of the area and some insulation from cloud cover, lows tonight
are not expected to be as cool with lows in the middle to upper 40s.
Warm and moist air advects northward Sunday as winds veer to the
south and increase between 10 and 15 mph sustained. Clouds begin to
increase across northern areas during the afternoon in approach of
the next system. These clouds should only slightly hinder highs from
the low 70s near the Nebraska border, to the middle 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

Next chance for rain comes late in the evening Sunday night into
the overnight hours into Monday as the low level jet increases and
focuses convective develop over NE Kansas. LLJ veers toward
morning but is followed by frontal passage for the day on Monday.
NAM advects enough moisture and mid level cooling to generate near
1500 J/kg of CAPE over NE KS in the early morning hours, although
shear remains weak. Will keep thunder as primary precipitation
type through this period. Chances clear quickly NW to SE by Monday
Evening and have ended precip chances north of the interstate by
Monday evening and cleared everywhere by sunrise on Tuesday.
Overnight lows in the 50s Sunday night as clouds and WAA continue,
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s north then south of the
front. Cooler for Tuesday as cooler high pressure follows the
front with lows around 50 and highs near 70.

Wednesday models still generate overnight QPF over Kansas over the
mid level front with weak shortwave then moving slight chance
to the east. Again not over confident on a location but worth a
slight chance mention. Upper ridge then establishes over the
Rockies for Thursday into Friday and will continue a slow warming
trend from 70s Thursday to low 80s Friday. Latest EC has set this
up as a blocking ridge and kept main upper trof west while GFS has
stayed the course of bringing this system into Kansas for
Saturday. Think EC was an outlier and bring precip chances back
into the forecast for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

VFR conditions should persist at all sites overnight. Stratus deck
between 5k and 7kft has slowed somewhat over the past few hours
and it appears that the TOP/FOE sites could stay with clouds
through 9z so time for radiational cooling/fog development would be
limited so will keep vis as VFR as well. It appears that precip
should hold off until after 06z MON and CIGs should stay VFR
through that time as well.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Omitt






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