Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 011744

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1144 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Stacked system was near Sioux Falls, South Dakota early this
morning. Height/pressure gradient around it still strong enough to
keep some mixing going through the night despite little cloud.
Dewpoint depressions small enough for low level moisture to
create frost but mixing too great for anything but isolated fog in
protected areas.

Overall airmass changes little from Monday, though mainly clear
skies early become more cloudy through the day as an upper trough
rotates around the low and brushes the area late this afternoon
and this evening. Forcing rather weak with this wave and as mixing
increases, cloud should develop into the ice crystal thermal zone.
Hard to rule out flurries in northern areas and will go that route
in the forecast. The morning sunshine should be able to boost
temps several degrees above Monday`s highs with lows similar.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Wednesday through Monday period looks to be rather quiet. A weak,
dry short wave trough will come out of the northwest and cross the
area on Thursday, but ample dry air through the column will not
support precip...or even widespread clouds. What will be present
ahead of this weak system is warm advection with a southwesterly
breeze, and temperatures are likely to climb to the upper 40s to
lower 50s on Thursday. A mainly southerly flow pattern continues
into the first part of the weekend as an upper trough deepens in
the four corners region. This trough begins to fill and weaken as
it enters the Plains though, and never gains much of a moisture
influx as the Gulf is essentially cut off. It still warrants a
slight chance for precipitation in the form of rain or snow, but
it does not look to be an impact-maker at this time.

The entire long term period after Wednesday looks to be near or a
bit warmer than normal with highs in the neighborhood of 50
degrees and lows generally in the 30s and dependent day-to-day on
overnight wind speeds or the presence of clouds keeping those lows
on the warmer side.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, west-southwesterly winds will continue to gust
upwards of around 20kts before diminishing some by late this
afternoon. Expect increased cloud cover tonight into Wednesday as
a mid-level trough tracks eastward over the area. However, there
is some model uncertainty with regards to how low ceiling heights may
drop with some models hinting at MVFR cigs, so have added the
mention of scattered MVFR cigs at this time and will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.