Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 061140

540 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 334 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A longer wave length upper level trough continued across the east
central conus. Northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will
gradually back more to the west-northwest through late Tonight.

Today, westerly downslope winds across the central high plains will
cause warmer air at the surface and 850mb to advect east and
northeast across the state of KS. Slightly deeper mixing and warmer
temperatures at the 925-900mb level across the southwest counties of
the CWA will allow highs to reach the lower 60s. The mixed boundary
layer will probably only reach to a depth of 940mb across the far
eastern counties, where highs will only reach the lower 50s.
Skies will be mostly sunny with southwest winds of 10 to 20 MPH.

Tonight, Skies will be mostly clear. Overnight lows will only drop
down into the lower 30s as winds remain from the southwest at 5 to
15 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 334 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Models are in good agreement on bringing the cutoff low off the Baja
coast eastward into the southern plains through weekend and keep
precipitation south of the county warning area...although a little
further north than previous runs. Although a weak front will try to
slip into the cwa Saturday...the westerly low level flow ahead of
it will maintain milder air in place and above normal temps in the
upper 50s and lower 60s. As the cwa transitions from northwesterly
flow aloft to a little more zonal flow into the early and middle
portions of next week...even warmer air will surge north and
eastward into the cwa. This is primarily due to the fact that the
EC and GEM models are continuing to trend towards the GFS solution
with the stronger ridging along the west coast forcing more
pacific shortwave energy further northward rather than through
the ridge. This results in a dry and warmer pattern for the plains
as the western ridge gets nudged eastward into the plains. If the
eastern Pacific troughs remain further west...a reamplification of
the western ridge may take place late next week into the weekend
and a return to a more northwesterly flow. Either way...continued
dry with high temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above normal in
the 60s will be common through the early and middle portions of
next week. Lows will be in the 30s to lower 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFs through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Expect VFR conditions. A low-level jet of 40 to 45 KTS from the southwest early
this morning will cause low-level wind shear at 800 to 1,000 feet
at both KMHK and KTOP, where the inversion should keep surface
winds under 10 KTS through 14Z.




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