Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 152126
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
326 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Area of rain and freezing rain is currently moving through northeast
and north central KS. Models continue to warm temperatures this
afternoon and early evening, but are a little aggressive. Given the
light easterly winds limiting the strength of cold advection
temperatures are gradually warming from southeast to northwest. Where
temperatures are above freezing the rain has pretty much come to an
end besides some drizzle and maybe an isolated shower. Where
temperatures are below freezing minor ice accumulation is taking
place, but the ice:liquid ratios are fairly low. This could be
contributed to a lack of wind at surface to help remove the latent
heat, as well as the small amount of solar insolation hitting the
elevated objects. Regardless it appears that icing amounts will
generally be lower than the official forecast. This evening the
temperatures cool a degree or two as additional rain moves in from
southern KS. Still believe the icing efficiency will not improve
much. Have continued with the ice storm warning as there may be
isolated locations that continue to see travel impacts to untreated
roads. The chances of any power outages due to ice is low given the
accumulations will probably not reach the amount needed to cause
damages. The only exception would be far north central KS where
temperatures hover around freezing through tomorrow morning. As the
precipitation type turns over to rain for most locations tonight the
main upper level low pressure lifts over the area. As the lift and
moisture increases over eastern KS most locations should receive a
decent rainfall with amounts between 0.50" to 1.00". Again, most of
this will fall in the form of plan old rain. As the upper low tracks
overhead a dry slot moves in from the southwest tomorrow afternoon.
This will end most of the precipitation besides maybe some drizzle
that lasts into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

In the mid-range forecast period beginning Tuesday, split flow
regime takes hold over the Central CONUS with ridging building over
the Central Plains into mid week.  This will allow for very pleasant
conditions weather wise for mid-January.  An active western trough
regime digs over the western CONUS into Thursday and brings a chance
for liquid precipitation on Friday for northeast and east central
Kansas.  Varying strength of the upper low with the ECMWF deepening
an open wave and closing off and upper low as divergent area of the
longer wave trough advects over the region.  Low quality in moisture
leads to low chance POPs.  Southern Branch of the Polar Jet
strengthens over the Southern CONUS probably leads to a track of
late weekend weather system further south of the area.  But this is
the GFS depiction.  ECMWF still trends some energy to the north
putting northeast Kansa in an area where some wrap around moisture
could cause little concern with a period of mixed precip.  At this
time, neither system looks to be too big of a weather maker for
northeast or east central Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

IFR or LIFR conditions are forecast through the entire TAF period.
Freezing rain is ongoing at the beginning of the period and is
likely to continue for a few more hours at TOP/FOE...and possibly
several more hours at MHK...before temperatures warm slightly
above freezing. Widespread rain (or freezing rain) is expected
through the TAF period, with occasional breaks in the rain giving
way to drizzle.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KSZ008>012-020-021-
034.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ022>024-035-036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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