Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 272045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

As of 20z, mid and upper level ridging continues to position itself
across the central Plains. At the surface, a stationary boundary was
positioned from just south of ICT, east-northeastward into
central MO. Two MCVs responsible for thunderstorms across the area
and western KS this morning continue to weaken as they push south
and eastward. One or two thunderstorms are possible along the
boundary across the far southern counties this afternoon. As we
transition into the evening and overnight hours, the inverted
surface ridge will continue build in across the area. Weak dry air
advection will inundate the area, ushering in 60 degree dew
points. With decreasing clouds expected overnight, patchy fog is
expected virtually area wide. Although, the areas along the KS/NE
border and area that received rainfall last night will stand the
best chances. Comfortable conditions are expected for Friday with
high temperatures in the low to middle 80s and LOW HUMIDITY!

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

As we transition into the weekend the mid and upper level ridge
looks to amplify across the central and northern Rockies, placing
the plains within northerly to northwest flow. Very comfortable
temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs in the
lower 80s. Guidance continues to hint at the potential for
convection off the high plains producing an MCV that traverses
western KS Saturday night/Sunday morning. At this point, kept the
CWA dry Saturday night and Sunday. Dry and pleasant conditions are
expected to continue through the beginning next week with high
temperatures in the 80s and low in the 60s. Guidance continues to
show an upper trough traversing the central CONUS by the middle of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Low level stratus deck is expected to continue lifting through the
early afternoon hours. VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals by 20z. Winds will remain light through the period. The
biggest question mark pertains to fog potential Friday morning.
Given the recent rainfall, expect at least patchy ground fog.
Therefore, have introduced slight vsby reduction at all terminals
from 10 to 13z.




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