Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 212109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
309 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Gusty north winds prevail this afternoon behind the cold front
currently centered over southern Kansas. Despite the clouds clearing
northeast Kansas, enhanced wind transport down to the sfc in
combination with the strong dry air advection has resulted in
dewpoints falling dramatically during the afternoon into the lower
teens. Upper 40s to lower 50s are holding steady across the Kaw
River Valley, resulting in RH values in the lower 20 percent range.
The 1030 mb sfc high currently centered over South Dakota shifts
southward into the region later tonight, dropping readings
considerably colder than the last several days. Short term guidance
is trending a bit warmer than current forecast thinking given the
strong radiational cooling and weak winds in place. Therefore sided
closer to MOS guidance with readings in the teens to low 20s for the
forecast lows tonight.

For Wednesday, high pressure migrates into Oklahoma, veering winds
towards the southwest, increasing between 10 and 15 mph, perhaps up
to 20 mph sustained over north central Kansas. After a cold start,
highs will remain on cooler side from the middle to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A northwest upper low continues across the central Plains through
Thanksgiving day with a ridge in the western states and a trough in
the east. The ridge is suppressed on Friday as a through moves
across the northern and central Plains. However that is short lived
as the ridge builds back into the western states as an upper trough
moves into the eastern Pacific for the weekend then into the Rockies
early next week. The effect of these systems on northeast Kansas
will be relegated to fronts moving through the area with mainly a
wind shift and gusty winds ahead and behind the fronts. Moisture
return is limited so a dry forecast continues through the
Thanksgiving Holiday weekend and into early next week. Elevated fire
danger is possible on Friday as temperatures warm several degrees
above normal in the 70s along with minimum relative humidity in the
25 to 30 percent range and gusty winds. Temperatures mainly above
normal through Friday then cooling off for the weekend to near
normal then warming again early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

VFR prevails at terminals. Gusty north winds subside in the 22 to
01Z time frame as an area of high pressure builds into the area
after 05Z.


Issued at 308 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Very high fire danger conditons continue for much of northeast
Kansas this afternoon. North to northwest winds range from 25 to 30
mph sustained, gusting up to 40 mph at times. With temperatures
holding in the upper 40s, minimum RH values are bit lower than
previous forecast in the lower to middle 20 percentile. The fire
weather threat should wane by 6 PM as the winds and wind gusts
weaken to near 10 mph.




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