Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 122303
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
603 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Tonight and Sunday

Two separate disturbances are impacting the region this afternoon.
The first set of southern stream impulses are entering the Texas and
Oklahoma panhandle region with widespread showers and thunderstorms,
stretching as far north as southern KS. Moisture transport in the
low levels is pretty limited given the high pressure in control over
northeast KS, so have removed pops for the afternoon in our
southern areas.

The second impulse currently observed over northeast Montana will
gradually shift southeast tonight and Sunday. A sfc front over the
Dakotas will serve as a focal point for a cluster of thunderstorms
to form across Nebraska during the evening. A veering, southerly low
level jet feeds ample moisture into the system, with most of the
cams shunting the accumulating precipitation eastward towards Iowa
by Sunday morning. Latest runs of the HRRR and the RAP are further
west with the convection developing, and therefore track the cluster
towards north central Kansas after 06Z. However, the ample dry air
in place and weak mid level lapse rates support the models with the
cluster dissipating as it reaches the CWA. Have kept low end slight
chances across far north central areas. Residual high and mid
clouds are expected to spread into the area by the morning.  Also
removed pops for Sunday afternoon as all cams signal moisture
availability is limited by the southern stream wave and mcs
rolling through Texas. Similar to today, a mix of diurnal cumulus
and high clouds combine with highs in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The extended will feature a longwave trough across the
intermountain West which will begin to send out shortwaves into
the Plains by Tues. SW flow aloft atop a broad area of southerly
moist low level flow will set the stage for bouts of convection
across the Plains Tues and beyond. ECMWF and GFS both indicate a
similar pattern with the usual differences in timing of individual
waves. Bottom line is that it looks to be another active and
potentially wet week for parts of the region until the trough axis
passes (if it does) sometime late week into the weekend. Daytime
temps should remain near or just below avg with highs in the 85 to
90 range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

With surface obs and model progs showing a stable airmass over the
terminals through Sunday, VFR conditions should prevail. There is
a low probability for some ground fog in the morning, so will keep
an eye on conditions to see if chances change.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Wolters



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