Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 192340

National Weather Service Topeka KS
640 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Persistent northeasterly winds have continued through the day and
will continue into the evening as well...although tapering off a bit
after sunrise. A strong short wave trough will dive southeast across
the forecast area this evening through tomorrow morning. This system
will bring another cold front as well as plenty of forcing for
ascent. The missing ingredient is low level moisture, but it appears
that the lift will be strong enough to overcome the low level dry
air and produce scattered showers moving northwest to southeast
across the forecast area between mainly 10 PM and 7 AM. While there
will be cold air advection with gusty northwest winds behind the
front, the winds will also promote a well-mixed boundary layer and
along with cloud cover should keep lows in the middle to upper 40s.
A few sprinkles may linger in the east after sunrise tomorrow but
expect clouds and winds to gradually diminish through the day with
highs making it into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Weak ridge of high pressure moves east-southeastward across
eastern KS Thursday night with cool lows around 40 degrees. Then
southerly winds bring warming low-level temps with highs in the
upper 60s Friday, and around the middle 70s from Saturday through

Flow aloft turns from more zonal on the weekend to southwesterly
by Monday night or Tuesday. Then a combination of weak
disturbances in this flow along with returning moisture will lead
to shower and thunderstorm chances for the middle part of the
week. There are definite differences in 12Z runs of GFS and ECMWF
for Wednesday as the ECMWF brings across a stronger upper wave,
while the GFS keeps the upper trough west, but both model
forecasts would still result in precip chances Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

VFR conditions should be the rule. Upper level wave will bring
some chance for scattered, high-based showers in the 6-13Z
period. Limitations are quite unlikely, but could see visibilities
briefly reduced.




SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.