Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261147
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Area of convection continues to shift north in recent hours with
nearby radar wind profiles showing veering trends in the lower
levels. Surface front was working its way north into southern Kansas
though cloud cover remains prevalent to its south. RAP analysis
indicates several weak waves upstream in moderate southwest flow
aloft with a larger scale trough working east across the central and
northern Rockies.

Expect focus of precip to continue to shift north over the next
several hours. Will need to watch for training of higher precip
rates, but so far this has been limited and short-lived. Front
should continue on north into northern portions of the state through
the day, though the continued presence of the upper waves keeps
confidence on a convection-free warm sector before peak heating is
low, likely keeping instability somewhat in check. Mid and upper
level winds will support decent shear values, though lower level
speeds are weak. Will continue to mention some chance for severe
storms but confidence again remains low in thunderstorm evolution
and timing. Will have highest pops north this morning, with
decreasing low level jet expecting to bring lower coverage around
midday, and some uptick again in the late afternoon and evening. PW
values remain in the 1.5-2" range and elevated thickness and Corfidi
vectors suggest some training is possible for a heavy rain concern,
but the lack of confidence on trends prevents any Watch issuance.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Convection may be ongoing Saturday morning as the southern end of
the Northern Plains trough moves through the Central Plains. The
warm front should lift north of the area with southerly winds
developing through the morning hours. Residual boundaries left over
from morning convection may fire additional convection across east
central Kansas in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday evening. Embedded waves will move through
the southwesterly flow aloft into Monday and will keep chances of
thunderstorms going. Precipitable water values remain around 1.5
inches for much of the week. An upper level develops from the
southeast U.S. westward into the Southern and Central Plains which
will keep embedded waves more to the north of the area as well as
any frontal boundaries. Expect to see more diurnally driven
convection in the late afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs
mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Challenging near term forecast to start with very low cloud
developing behind rain and nearby sites. Have at least TEMPO IFR
most places for a few hours but improvements may be slow in
limited flow and high cloud likely persisting. We ahead with VFR
for a few hours around 0Z but this is not a sure thing either.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...65



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