Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 180550
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Upper level trough was moving over the western states this
afternoon. The trough will continue to progress east overnight and
across eastern Kansas through Saturday morning. A cold front was
located across south central and southeast Nebraska at 20Z will move
southeast this evening and overnight across eastern Kansas shifting
the winds to the northwest. There will be a lull in the winds ahead
of the front with winds increasing from the northwest after 06Z
behind the front as the pressure gradient increases. Currently
expecting winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph possible
into early afternoon. The pressure gradient relaxes in the afternoon
with winds decreasing during the late afternoon.

Forcing with the wave will increase after midnight and should
generate showers with the best chances along the Nebraska border.
With the passage of the trough by early afternoon rain chances will
end from west to east across cwa through the late morning hours.
Temperatures tonight will drop back into the upper 30s to upper 40s
while high temperatures only warm back into the upper 40s to lower
50s. Although skies will be cloudy Saturday morning mostly sunny
skies are expected in the afternoon. Forecast soundings show some
potential for cumulus development in the afternoon hours tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Dry northwest flow aloft returns through the extended period with no
major weather impacts expected. Temperatures during this period are
near normal with highs mostly in the 50s with the exception of
Wednesday when a cold front passes through the region dry. Readings
on Wednesday morning fall to the 20s with highs in the 40s.
Ensemble guidance is still on track for a beautiful Thanksgiving day
with light winds, clear skies, and temperatures in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

For the 06z TAFs, the cold front was tracking eastward across the
forecast area, with winds already veering to the north at KMHK. A
tight pressure gradient behind this front will support breezy
northwesterly winds starting early this morning and continuing
through the daytime hours, with gusts up to 30-35kt. Surface obs
and satellite imagery were showing areas of low stratus
developing across portions of north central to far northeast
Kansas, resulting in borderline IFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vis. Models
show these IFR/MVFR conditions occurring behind the front early
this morning, but the reduced visibilities should be short-lived
until the winds quickly increase. Some scattered light showers
also can be expected behind the front, with this precipitation
diminishing by mid-morning. With the exiting precipitation, cloud
cover will quickly scatter out and diminish, with VFR conditions
expected during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Hennecke



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