Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 311714
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1214 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Upper ridging remains rather stationary through tonight over the
area with southerly winds increasing somewhat over recent days as
surface high nudges east. Lower level moisture remains rather high
with modest isentropic upglide leading to areas of stratus in recent
hours. 500m winds from nearby radars depicting steady to increasing
south winds, and in combination with the stratus, this may be enough
to keep widespread fog in check. Deeper mixing and less cloud should
provide a warmer day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Somewhat stronger south winds in the lower levels tonight should
keep lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

Tuesday through Saturday night, a longer wave length upper trough
will amplify across the western US. A downstream upper ridge will
begin to amplify across the southern plains and northeast across the
east central US. The main upper jet will round the trough axis
across the western US and lift northeast into the northern plains
and southern Canada. Before the upper ridge axis begins to amplify
across the southern plains and MS river valley, a minor upper level
trough will lift northeast out of NM and across western KS into NE
Tuesday night into Wednesday. The better chances for thunderstorms
will be across western KS ahead of a lee surface trough axis and
where the ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough will be stronger.
There may be enough ascent ahead of the minor H5 trough along with
some weak isentropic lift for a few elevated thunderstorms across
north central KS and along the NE border Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, most of the period will be dry and
warm with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Saturday night through Monday, the western US trough will lift
northeast into the northern and central plains. The GFS model is not
as amplified with the upper trough as the ECMWF and is about 24
hours faster lifting the trough northeast across the northern plains
which brings a surface cold front southward across the CWA on Sunday
and Sunday night. If the GFS were to verify then pops may have to be
increased on Sunday. The ECMWF is deeper with the western US trough
and lifts it out into the plains on Monday into Monday night. If the
ECMWF were to verify then the best chance for thunderstorms will be
Monday Afternoon into Monday night as the surface cold front moves
southward across the CWA Monday night. For most of the period the
CWA w will be within the warm sector, thus highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with southerly winds around 10 kts
through 00Z. Profilers hint at southerly winds increasing up to 40
kts aoa 800 feet aft 06Z tonight, however there is some
uncertainty on wind speeds at the sfc during this time. Will hold
off mentioning llws at this time, but this may be reconsidered for
the next issuance.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Bowen


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