Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280817
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE MADE A SLOW SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND LOWS SO FAR ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SO FAR.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF NOTED OVER
NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST IN
THE UPPER FLOW.

FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER
THAN IN DAYS PAST AS FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 825MB WILL BRING HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...HOWEVER INCOMING FRONT MAY GET HIGHS
IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE FRONT COMES IN.  BETTER
UPPER LIFT STAYS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE FRONT...AND
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON THUNDER CHANCES TO THE WEST WHERE
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER THINK
WINDS WOULD BE OF PRIMARY CONCERN WITH STORMS IF THEY CAN
DEVELOP...WHILE CAPE VALUES COULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL AS WELL.
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WEAKEN IN THE PROCESS AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS DRY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH DUE
TO THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US TRYING TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL PREVENT THE COOLER AIR FROM EASTERN CANADA FROM
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST
BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS WILL BE THE START OF AN ACTIVE
PATTERN, BUT THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE SPEED AND EXACT
TRACKS OF THESE WAVES. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE SHORTWAVES RESPONSIBLE FOR TOPPLING
THE UPPER RIDGE ON TUESDAY WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD PUSH A FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS OF NOW THIS FRONT MAY
END UP STALLING OUT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT MODELS SHOW
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES AROUND AT THE LEAST INTO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR PREVAILS AT TERMINALS WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. FRONTAL PASSAGE VEERS SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KTS TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER 18Z. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TSRA
SOUTH OF TERMINALS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...SANDERS
AVIATION...BOWEN



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