Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 280854
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
254 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The lead upper level trough was lifting northeast across eastern NE
into southeast SD. A secondary upper trough has dug southeast into
far west TX early this morning.

The lead upper level trough will move due north and phase with the
trough across western TX as it moves east into eastern TX through
the day. The phased upper trough axis will move east of the CWA by
afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms early this morning should
pass east of the CWA since the 850mb winds have veered and shifted
the western edge of the deeper gulf moisture east of the CWA across
MO.

A weak cold front will move east across the CWA through late morning
hours and should move east of the CWA during the late afternoon. The
low stratus should move east of the area through the mid morning
hours as drier air advects eastward across the state of KS. Expect
skies to become mostly sunny across east central KS through
the mid and late morning hours.

Highs Today will reach the lower 60s across the southern counties of
the CWA with mid 50s along the NE border.

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

On Tuesday, the upper low will be located over South Dakota,
expected to elongate but stay rather stagnant through Wednesday.
With northwest flow into the area, temperatures will be slightly
cooler than previous days with highs ranging from the low 50s in
north central Kansas to the upper 50s in the east central portion of
the state.  With CAA continuing into Wednesday temperatures moderate
to more seasonal values in the mid-40s.  By Thursday, the upper low
finally moves east over the northeast US bringing relatively zonal
flow over northeast Kansas through Friday.  Great variation exists
in models from Saturday onward with the ECMWF bringing a deep trough
axis over the Central Plains, and the GFS keeping Kansas under zonal
flow as a cut off low sits over the southwestern US.  This system
will be something to monitor for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

MVFR cigs are expected at TOP and FOE terminals through 07Z then
VFR. WInds south to southwest around 11kts through 15Z then
becoming west southwest around 10kts through then end of the
period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...53



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