Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 290453
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1153 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

This afternoon, the prominent upper level low was located over
northern Illinois/Indiana and is expected to continue drifting south
through tomorrow.  A back door front that moved across northeast
Kansas early this morning has aided in the cool temperatures today
as north northeasterly flow continues over the area.  High
temperatures today have been lowered slightly with very northeast
Kansas topping out in the high 60s.  Status located in Iowa has been
slowly moving south today, but it looks like the deck will stay east
of the area with only few to scattered clouds expected overnight.
Cooling overnight will bring lows into the mid and upper 40s.
Similar day tomorrow as today with dry conditions and cool
temperatures expected as the upper level ridge to the west begins to
move into western Kansas.  Highs Thursday will be near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Upper ridging dominates much of the region through the week as the
closed low remains nearly stationary over the Midwest. May see some
remnant high clouds from precipitation towards Missouri, otherwise
should expect highs in the lower to middle 70s and light winds
through Saturday. Morning lows gradually increase with the afternoon
temps from the upper 40s Friday morning to near 60 degrees on
Tuesday. Will continue to monitor the next system to impact the area
by late Saturday evening, possibly Sunday as a weak embedded wave
ejects from the upper trough axis digging south over the Pacific
Northwest. Have mentioned slight chances for thunder through Monday
for north central areas, however mid level lapse rates are generally
weak and confidence is low for any precipitation until Tuesday as
the main system lifts out into the Central Plains. The latest runs
of the ECMWF are more progressive with the system quickly pushing
north by Wednesday, while the GFS continues it slower progression
and therefore prolonged chances for rain after Tuesday. A blend of
the two with previous versions was the best compromise at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

For the 06Z TAFs, have gained more confidence that any FG/BR
development would likely hold off until the 12Z time frame but
likely be low lying areas if any does develop. Will not add to the
forecast at this time as trends in guidance have been to not form
fog near the terminals for any significant period of time and
observations seem to support the solution being more of a
scattered deck moving overhead.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake


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