Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 250854
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
354 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

08Z WATER VAPOR AND PROFILER DATA SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE NM/CO STATE LINE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH EASTERN KS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS
FOR THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS OVER EASTERN KS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH NICE WEATHER FOR THE REGION AS THERE IS
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED. HIGHS TODAY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS
MODELS WARM 850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL KS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE MILD AS WELL DUE TO THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING TO THE EAST CAUSING SLIGHTLY MORE MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THEREFORE LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
MOISTURE TO CENTRAL KS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY SET OFF SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY AFFECTING NORTH CENTRAL KS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
ATTENDANT LIFT OUT AHEAD OF IT AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS GIVES HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH SLOWS DOWN AND THE FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER EASTERN KS.

AFTER THAT...THINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN AND TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

WILL KEEP A TEMPO AT TOP FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE
GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE RIVER. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...GDP
AVIATION...67



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