Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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033
FXUS63 KTOP 201113
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

A warm night tonight with temperatures still near 80 in many
locations.  A little more southerly wind in past days likely keeping
the boundary layer more more mixed than previous nights.  Convection
tonight is also farther north and west, leaving the forecast area
under mostly clear skies at this hour.  Temperatures rise a degree
or two from yesterdays numbers, with highs in the middle 90s to near
100.  Heat indicies running from 100-109F across the area as the
excessive heat warning continues.  A little more wind today but not
likely to make it feel much cooler.  Lows tonight fall into the
middle 70s to near 80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Only minor changes to previous forecast. Upper high still in place
into the late week before weakening late Friday into the weekend.
Southwest low level flow and general subsidence keep the hot
conditions in place with little opportunity for precipitation. 850mb
temps continue their rise into Thursday and remain fairly steady
into Saturday with the main challenges being in the specifics of the
air and wet bulb temps. Went on the warmer and drier side of
guidance given model performance in recent similar environments.
Heat index values still looking to reach 103 to 110 through
Saturday. Upper wave passing over the northern states still looks to
drag a cold front into the area Saturday night into Sunday for at
least cooler temps and some chance for precipitation. Chances should
linger into Tuesday as another wave takes a similar track to the
north, with isentropic lift resulting.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

Still a VFR forecast, with a note to monitor for LLWS toward the
end of the forecast period, but at this time looks to remain below
criteria.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...67



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