Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 021717
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

The mid-level ridge was becoming more positively tilted early this
morning, and should stretch from the Southern Plains toward the
Great Lakes region by this afternoon. The ridge axis early this
morning was focused across the Northern and Central Plains with
water vapor imagery showing a few embedded shortwaves present along
the top of the ridge. These shortwaves helped to produce an MCS over
southwest Nebraska last evening which continued to track
southeastward into northwestern Kansas due to the support of the
low-level jet focused over that region. However, latest regional
radar shows this complex weakening some as it progresses
southeastward, so it`s still uncertain if it will be able to
maintain itself enough to bring a few scattered showers and
thunderstorms into north central Kansas this morning. In addition to this
MCS, one signal that several of the short-range models are
continuing to pick up on is the potential for scattered showers and
some thunderstorms to develop across the central portion of the CWA
along the eastern edge of the low-level jet axis and the area of
instability. Models show increasing isentropic lift across the CWA
on the 300k-310k surfaces and some increasing low-level moisture to
help support some scattered precipitation. Expect any showers and
storms that develop to be widely scattered in nature and to diminish
by mid to late morning as they progress into eastern Kansas.

Satellite imagery showed a stratus deck moving across the forecast
area early this morning. This increasing cloud cover combined with
southeasterly winds will keep morning low temperatures comfortable in
the 50s. Model soundings show this cloud cover trying to scatter out
some during the day, however it still may linger across the area
through the afternoon hours. Any scattering out of the cloud cover
this afternoon though should help temperatures rise into the upper
70s to low/mid 80s from east to west.

Models show the mid-level ridge axis becoming centered over the CWA
by tonight with more embedded shortwaves developing along the
northern edge of the ridge, which should support the development of
another MCS across South Dakota and Nebraska. The main question with
this MCS is how quickly it will track southeastward toward northeast
Kansas. With the exception of the GFS, the 00z model runs are
keeping the MCS north of the forecast area, focused across eastern
Nebraska. As a result, have trimmed PoPs back a bit for after
midnight tonight into Wednesday morning. The southwesterly low-level
jet looks to be focused over the CWA tonight, and combined with some
scattered low-level clouds expect low temperatures to be mild in the
mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Models suggest the remnants of an MCS moving across Nebraska early
Wednesday will impact the northern counties of the CWA primarily.
Residual boundaries left over from the morning convection may be
enough to set off scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours,
however the best chances look to be in the morning hours. Wednesday
night into Thursday energy will eject out of the western CONUS
trough and move out into the Plains ridge. Convection should develop
across the high plains and into Nebraska then develop into an MCS
and affect much of northern Kansas and Nebraska overnight into
Thursday morning. There are some model differences with the location
of the energy and its resultant placement of QPF as it moves through
the Plains ridge. Shear remains marginal around 25kts to 30kts, but
instability and moisture will be adequate for strong storms with
locally heavy rainfall across the area, mainly across the north
ahead of a frontal boundary. Thursday afternoon and evening may see
convection redevelop along mesoscale boundaries across northern
Kansas with ample instability and deep layer moisture along with
around 30 kts of shear could lead to strong to a few severe storms.
The frontal boundary is expected to slide south east by Friday
morning and reside somewhere over northeast Kansas providing a focus
for additional development later in the day. The upper ridge remains
over the Plains into Saturday before breaking down Saturday night
and Sunday as a trough moves across the Northern and Central Plains
with a northwest flow pattern aloft for the start of the next work
week. Additional energy moving through the upper flow and residual
boundaries may focus additional convection on Monday. Temperatures
through the Wednesday to Monday period look to be in the 80s with
lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

Clouds are expected to stay VFR throughout the period varying
between BKN and SCT.  Tomorrow morning after 12Z, there is a slight
possibility that weakening storms will move into the area.
Confidence is low on timing and if these storms make it south enough
to reach terminals, so have not included it in this TAF package.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Heller






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