Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 031126
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

Early this morning a short wave upper level trough was digging
southward across western NE into western KS. This short wave trough
will dig south-southeast across western OK into northeast TX
Tonight. The stronger ascent with this upper trough will remain well
west and southwest of the CWA. As the upper trough digs into western
OK, skies should begin to clear during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Increased insolation will help high temperatures
warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon.

The broader upper level trough across the Great Lakes region will
amplify as a shortwave H5 trough digs southward out of east central
Canada. AS the Great Lakes upper trough amplifies the flow aloft
over eastern KS will become northwesterly. A weak cold front will
switch winds to the northwest late tonight. The increase in
northwest winds in the early morning hours to the northwest at 5 to
15 MPH will only allow overnight lows to drop into the mid to upper
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

On Wednesday a mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes will continue
to amplify and dig over the southeast US. In the wake of this system
an expansive surface high pressure will drift across the area
keeping the weather relatively quiet. By Thursday the surface high
reaches the southern plains and northern gulf. Towards the weekend
an upper ridge moves over the central plains which will aid in the
return flow. Although the trajectories do not appear favorable for
decent moisture return until late weekend. This will be important as
the models are showing a deep mid/upper low over the southwest US
that will gradually move towards the central US. Another trough will
track over the Great Lakes region which will drag a cold front close
to the forecast area possibly on Saturday. This front will then
stall out and become more of a warm front and the focus for
convection. Especially with the models suggesting weaker shortwaves
ejecting out into the plains. There is some agreement that possibly
a more potent wave comes out on Sunday, otherwise beyond that the
evolution of the upper low becomes more uncertain. If the moisture
reaches the region steep lapse rates will be in place to support
instability. The deep layer shear is less certain and somewhat
marginal for now.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

For the 12Z TAFs, the immediate hazard will be fog at KTOP and
reduced VIS at KMHK until around 13Z. Have not gone as low as
actual FG in the KTOP as conditions likely won`t persist long and
visually doesn`t appear that FG will have staying power for very
long. Otherwise, some gradual veering of winds through the day and
a weak cold frontal passage near the end of the period. No mention
of fog for tomorrow as winds are likely stronger than today from
the northwest.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake



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