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000
FXUS63 KTOP 172033
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

REMNANT MCV AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MAKING AN
EASTWARD EXIT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON.  REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BROUGHT A BROAD SWATH OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTY...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE
SMALL SYSTEM IS MORE UNSTABLE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKLY CAPPED...AND
JUST THE BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS HAVE PROVIDED ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FAR EAST. THINK
SUBSIDENCE IS SETTING IN WEST TO EAST AND FOR THE CONVECTION TO
FOLLOW SUIT.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...HAVE GONE DRY WITH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS
BETTER INGREDIENTS FORM WEST OF THE AREA OUT ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE TROFS NOTED OVER COLORADO AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ATTM...BUT THINKING IS THAT BY THE TIME THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST
LIFT WILL BE WEAK AND ATMOSPHERE STABLE ENOUGH THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY. WILL MONITOR...ESPECIALLY WEST WHICH COULD
GET CLIPPED BY WESTERN CONVECTION BUT NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME. LOWS
SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S ON TUESDAY WITH A LIGHT NE WIND.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

BY MID WEEK...A WEAK RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN RIM OF THE RIDGE AND SKIM OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW THIS
RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STAY DRY THROUGH THAT PERIOD AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LOOK
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CWA. WITH THIS RIDGE IN PLACE...AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOULD HAVE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DECENT
WAA INTO THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND NEARLY 10F DEGREES ABOVE
THE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
850MB TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 22C-26C DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG
THE U.S./CANADA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO
FLATTEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA
ON MONDAY AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CWA...SO HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

WILL NEED SOME VCTS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
TOP/FOE AS RESIDUAL COMPLEX MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
VCTS FOR NOW.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...HENNECKE
AVIATION...67