Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 050759
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
259 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

An amplified upper level trough located across the east central US
early this morning will slowly drift east to the eastern US coast
line by 12Z FRI. An upper level ridge across the continental divide
will move east into the high plains Tonight.

Expect dry conditions through Tonight as the upper level ridge moves
into the high plains Tonight. The boundary layer will mix to around
850mb across the eastern counties with mixing heights of 800mb
across the western counties. 850mb temps will warm to 11 to 14
degree C today, thus with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 850mb, high
temperatures should reach the mid 70s across eastern counties with
highs around 80 degrees across the western counties. Northerly winds
of 5 to 10 MPH will become light and variable this afternoon, winds
across the western counties of the CWA will shift to the southeast
but remain light late this afternoon.

Tonight. light southerly winds will help keep lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

On Friday and Saturday high temperatures will reach the 80s as an
upper ridge builds over the central plains. During the day Saturday
an upper trough will move over the Great Lakes dragging a front into
the forecast area. The models have trending a little faster and
further south with this front placing it along and near I-70 during
peak heating Saturday. Dewpoints are forecasted to reach the upper
50s to lower 60s within the return flow from the far western Gulf
and eastern Mexico. This along with steep mid level lapse rates will
support high instability. Deep layer shear still appears to be
marginal and hodographs remain straight line due to light winds
along the front. Therefore if a storm can develop Saturday evening
it could be strong to severe given the instability, but widespread
organized convection is not as likely at this point.

A strengthening low level jet should support elevated showers and
storms overnight Saturday, which will form in western KS and
possibly reach eastern KS Sunday morning as the jet veers. Possibly
moving along or just north of the front. The upper low pressure
begins to swing out of the Rockies on Sunday causing the warm front
to lift slightly northward and a dryline to form in western KS.
Large scale lift should increase as the mid level system approaches
with possible smaller embedded waves as well. Again the instability
looks to be high Sunday afternoon if morning activity can clear out.
The models are slightly more eastward with the mid to upper jet,
which places slightly better shear over the area. There is a better
chance that storms form along the dryline in western KS and move
through the forecast area Sunday night. Models are faster with
moving the mid level low pressure eastward as a kicker system dives
southeastward over the northern Rockies. This would bring the
dryline and pacific cold front through during the day Monday. The
insatiability remains decent while the deep layer shear focuses more
over the mid South. Tuesday appears much drier behind the initial
system, but the wave over the northern Rockies lifts out on
Wednesday bringing a new surface into KS. Details of this scenario
will likely change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR conditions with SKC and light north winds will dominate much
of the TAF. Winds remain light but turn out of the south after
00Z.


&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Barjenbruch



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