Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271113

National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

An upper level ridge across the southwestern US will gradually shift
east into the southern high plains Tonight. The surface ridge axis
across eastern KS this morning will shift east into MO by this
afternoon. Calm surface winds will become southerly by this
afternoon and increase slightly to 10 to 15 MPH with some higher
gusts across north central KS.

The high clouds moving southeast across the CWA at 200 AM should
begin to Thin out after 400 AM and the patchy dense ground fog should
increase in coverage across northeast and east central KS towards
sunrise. Therefore, I plan to keep the dense fog advisory going
through 9 AM. The areas of dense fog this morning across much of
northeast and east central Kansas should dissipate after 9 AM as the
depth of the mixed boundary layer increases.

Highs Today will reach the lower to mid 70s across northeast and
east central KS, with mid to upper 70s across the western counties
of the CWA. Southerly winds will keep overnight lows in the mid to
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Return flow develops in the wake of the retreating surface high
pressure as the quasizonal flow aloft continues. Within this pattern
a thermal axis will extend over the central plains causing highs to
reach the 80s Friday and Saturday. A weak shortwave will track over
the northern US during this timeframe, which will push a cold front
southward into the region. That front is forecasted to pass through
eastern KS Saturday night bringing temperatures closer to normal
with highs in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday. The front will be dry,
but return flow will quickly develop as a stronger shortwave moves
over the Rockies. Highs on Monday will reach the 80s once again
ahead of the cold front that moves through overnight. Most of the
models remain dry druing this frontal passage. Each day ahead of the
front gusty winds out of the southwest will accompany the warm
temperatures. Gusts could be as high as 35 mph during peak heating.
Into mid week the front will lift back north as a warm front as
southwest flow aloft continues. The only difference will be a
shortwave that digs over the west coast and ejects from the Rockies
further south. The GFS is forecasting the upper wave to pass close
to if not directly over the area, while the EC is even further south
over TX. This wave regardless will bring the combination of shear
and moisture to the plains and therefore the risk for strong storms.
The amount of instability present and how far north the warm front
lifts is still uncertain. If the forecast area ends up in the warm
sector then the risk for strong storms increases. A quick glance at
the GFS ensembles shows quite a bit of uncertainty among the members
so will try not to get lost in the details just yet.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Dense fog will continue especially at TOP/FOE while MHK is closer
to the western edge of the dense fog. Visibilities should begin
to improve the few hours after sunrise. Although it may take until
late morning to clear up to VFR and it could be in the form of
stratus before moisture mixes out. Otherwise VFR conditions
expected through the remaining taf period.


Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ009>012-



LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Sanders is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.