Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 131737
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

Ongoing convection this morning making slow progress to the south
and east. Some areas near the KS/NE border getting locally heavy
rainfall as the storms pass. Weak surface trof bisects the cwa at
this time with wind shift generally just south of the interstate.

For today, low level jet continues to veer quickly as 850mb front
also moves south and east along with the weak upper wave aiding in
generating showers and storms. Expect diminishing trend through the
morning hours. Highs today should be generally in the 80s with
afternoon insolation likely boosting highs some areas near 90.
Stronger front with colder air behind dives southward across the
Central Plains this evening and overnight, and may move into the
northern CWA by sunrise on Monday.  Will carry a low end late
night/early morning PoP for this. Otherwise lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

By Monday morning the strong mid/upper low pressure system
approaches the region from the north. This will bring a secondary
front through the area during the day. Lift provided by the
frontogenesis will aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms. All of that activity quickly moves south of the
forecast area by Monday evening as dry air advects southward from
Canada. Unseasonably cool air still on track for Tuesday through
Thursday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Tuesday morning
is still the coolest with forecast lows near the record of 52 at
Topeka and 54 at Concordia. Models still suggest a series of
shortwaves will track from the northern Rockies into western and
central KS on Wednesday and Thursday. At the moment most places stay
dry with the exception of far southwest portions of the forecast
area. There will be a gradual warm up going into next weekend as
another decent shortwave progresses over the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

For the 18z TAFs, the layer of MVFR cigs behind the front will
continue to diminish as it progresses east of the TAF sites early
this afternoon. Northerly winds will become light and variable
overnight as surface high pressure tracks over the area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over Nebraska
overnight and progress southward toward the TAF sites by mid to late Monday
morning, so have added the mention of VCTS. Soundings show that
these storms should be high-based so have VFR cigs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





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