Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261750

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1250 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

At 2 AM a line of showers and thunderstorms extended from near
Hiawatha, southwest through Alma and then southwest to west of ICT.
The intensity of the line has been decreasing through the early
morning hours. A small area of northern and western Geary County
received 2.5" to 3.5" of rainfall from 1200 AM through 130 AM.
Junction City reported some street flooding and an Urban and small
stream flood advisory remains in effect for northern and western
Geary county through 445 AM. Most areas will only up to a half inch
of rainfall through the early morning hours across northeast and
east central KS, with some localized areas receiving an inch of

An upper level trough was located across eastern NE with an upper
trough axis extending south-southwest across east central KS. Once
the upper trough axis shifts east of the CWA and a weak front moves
through, the line of storms should move southeast of the CWA by
around 10 AM. The line of storms should be through Topeka around 6
AM. Skies will gradually clear from west to east across the CWA
during the mid and late morning hours.

A drier and slightly cooler airmass will move southeast across
eastern KS behind the surface front. Highs will Today will reach the
lower to mid 70s. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to
drop into the mid to upper 40s. Winds will become calm and there
could be some patchy ground fog developing near sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

On Thursday into Friday an upper high centered over the southwest US
will allow warm temperatures to spread northward behind the front
currently moving through the area. Guidance continues to trend
warmer for Friday with highs forecasted in the lower to mid 80s.
Another frontal boundary will approach the area on Friday therefore
winds will be gusty out of the southwest. That front will gradually
move southward on Saturday before getting a better push on Sunday.
Highs on Sunday drop into the lower to mid 70s, and no precip is
expected over the weekend. A decent shortwave will progress over the
northern US on Monday bringing another frontal boundary southward.
Highs on Monday again reach the upper 70s to lower 80s, and most
locations will remain dry. The pattern becomes more southwesterly
aloft bringing a return for storm chances on Tuesday into


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Prior stratus that developed in the wake of morning showers has
been exiting the area and subsidence finally taking hold behind
with dry air mixing into the terminals. Still some SCT clouds
around this afternoon. More clearing should take place tonight
with subsidence helping to strengthen the radiational inversion
overnight. Feel medium to high on confidence level that at least
patchy fog will form during the 7-15Z time frame so have gone with
reduced VIS during this time. Most guidance is also on track with
this, but there are some hints VIS could go lower. Have held off
on that idea at least for the time being.




LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Drake is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.