Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 202332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Stratus continues to wrap around behind the upper low as it
tracks out of north central Kansas and into Iowa over the next
several hours. As it does so, clouds will slowly lift northward
and break up. Westerly winds continue overnight with gusts
diminishing after sunset.

Overnight lows drop into the lower 40s across the area, as do the
dewpoints, and could see some patchy fog in low spots after the
recent days rainfall.  Not enough coverage in grids, and with clouds
lingering and some light winds remaining, not expecting enough
coverage for a mention in the forecast at this time.  Highs rise
toward 70 for Sunday with decreasing clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Embedded vort max translates through the mean flow Sunday night and
Monday while the upper low continues to spin over the Great Lakes
region. Elevated convection Monday morning progged by all recent
model runs would temper the severity of storms in the afternoon as a
cold front enters from the northwest. Assuming sufficient time for
sfc heating to occur that day, a few strong to severe storms may be
possible in the late afternoon with around 1500 J/KG of sfc based
cape and near 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Lingering showers may
carry over into Tuesday, otherwise cooler airmass over takes the
region through mid week with northerly winds and highs in the upper

On Thursday, southerly flow returns to the region pushing temps
closer to the normal into the 70s and 80s for the Memorial Day
Weekend. While extended model solutions still show much uncertainty
on precip chances next weekend, broad troughing over the inter
mountain west signals the possibility for off and on thunderstorms
next weekend as the upper trough lifts across the northern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Clouds decrease over the next 6hrs and clear out completely by 12Z
time frame. Winds generally from the west through the period and
may be just above 10kts into the late morning and afternoon on




LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Drake is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.