354
FXUS63 KTOP 101050
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
550 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning storms should fall apart leaving hot conditions this
  afternoon.

- Higher chances for showers and storms is forecast for Friday
  and Friday night.

- There is a risk storms Friday could have damaging winds and
  heavy rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

The thunderstorms that formed over central NEB have shown a slow
weakening trend over the last hour. An I though that the earlier
storms that moved across southeast NEB may have increased
inhibition. But the elevated nature of the storms is allowing
them to develop south into northern KS. Profiler data also
suggests there may be a MCV moving through central NEB. So think
these showers and storms could persist into the mid-morning
hours while the mid level convergence from the low level jet
continues. Have added some 20 to 30 percent chance POPs across
north central KS to account for this. The precip over northeast
KS continues to weak and the storms that developed near Ottawa
should continue to move east and out of the area over the next
hour or so. If storms can persist into the late morning or early
morning as the boundary layer deepens, there may be a risk for
strong convection to develop. None of the CAMs show this and
still think the advecting EML should keep the boundary layer
capped.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

07Z water vapor imagery showed upper ridging over the southwest
with a shortwave trough moving into the northern Rockies. A
linear MCS was making it`s way through eastern NEB and
approaching northeast KS. At the surface, a trough of low
pressure was noted in the lee of the central Rockies with weak
high pressure to the east of the area.

Not a great deal of change in the forecast for today and
unfortunately the confidence in the forecast hasn`t changed a lot
either. This morning`s convection was suppose to be weakening as it
encountered increasing CIN over northeast KS and it is beginning to
show signs of weakening. Still have increased POPs across the
northern counties where it looks like storms should push into the
area. But does an MCV linger this afternoon and will is be over
northeast KS or further to the north and east. Based on current obs
and water vapor imagery, think if there will be a MCV it may
influence the weather more over northern MO than here. Aside from
that, the models show the surface boundary remaining to the west of
the forecast area through the afternoon with warming mid level temps
as an EML advects northeast. 700MB temps are progged to increase to
between +12 and +15C across central and into northeast KS. So with
out an obvious forcing mechanism or boundary to focus convergence,
think the daytime hours are most likely to remain dry. Today looks
to be one of the hottest days with parts of north central KS
approaching 100 degrees. Dewpoints are forecast to mix out into the
middle 60s. This is expected to keep heat indices around 100 so
conditions for a heat advisory appear to be marginal. The day shift
can watch dewpoints to see if heat indices may end up higher.

The surface front, which is progged to be a little slower, is
forecast to approach north central KS tonight and gradually move
into the area by Friday evening as shortwave energy passes mainly
north of the forecast area. There are questions about severe
potential tonight, especially if storms hold off until the overnight
period as surface based CIN should be on the increase. But Friday
afternoon and evening may be the time when severe potential is
highest. Instability south of the boundary should be plentiful with
some modest bulk shear of 25 to 35KT. With freezing levels around 14
KFT, it looks to be difficult for storms to produce hail unless a
discrete supercell can organize a solid mesocyclone. So damaging
winds and heavy rainfall look to be the main hazards. Models show
the higher QPF amounts Friday night as the boundary slides south. So
this is when the highest POPs are in the forecast.

With the slower progression of the frontal boundary, the POPs
Saturday are a little higher then the prev forecasts had. After
Saturday, a quasi zonal pattern develops with no obvious synoptic
scale energy progged to impact the area. So the general 10 to 20
percent chance POPs are in the forecast given the expected return of
a conditionally unstable airmass. The next synoptically driven
chance for precip looks to be Tuesday or Wednesday as another
shortwave passing through the northern plains potentially brings a
front into the area. There are some differences between the GFS and
ECMWF starting to show up with the timing of the trough and
boundary. So the confidence in the forecast is a little lower. Stuck
with the blend which still has chance POPs in the forecast for
Tuesday through Wednesday night. This may be overly broad but given
the lower predictability is probably warranted.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

With none of the CAMs handling the ongoing convection very
well, the forecast mainly is just an extrapolation of current
trends. Don`t have enough confidence in storms west of CNK
holding together long enough to impact MHK, and the stuff north
of TOP continues to dissipate. So will keep a dry forecast in
the short term and adjust to trends. Overnight convection is
forecast to mainly stay west of MHK and think probs are around
20 percent after midnight. So again will leave out any mention
of precip. A strengthening pressure gradient is expected to
cause southerly winds to become gusty. Overall think VFR
conditions should prevail.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters