Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250441
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1141 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

As of 19z, upper level ridge axis continues to shift eastward into
the central Plains. A shortwave trough was embedded within the
zonal flow across the northern Plains. A dryline has mixed into
central KS. Surface high pressure continues to progress eastward
from the central Plains, allowing southeasterly flow to return to
much of the area. For the rest of today, the EML will continue to
mix eastward into the western counties, allowing temperatures to top
out in the upper 90s. The eastern counties will remain in the lower
90s. Sultry Td`s in the 70s have returned to much of the area,
allowing heat indices to rise into the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. Clear skies are expected overnight with low temperatures
bottoming out in the lower 70s.

Another hot and uncomfortable day expected for Tuesday across the
area. Deep mixing upwards of 700mb Tuesday afternoon will result in
surface temperatures approaching 100 degrees across central and
north central KS. Eastern KS will see mixing upwards of 800mb,
resulting in high temperatures in the mid 90s. The slight decrease
in mixing will allow sfc Td`s to remain in the lower 70s. These
coupled may result in apparent T`s approaching 105, especially in
far eastern KS.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Upper ridge that previously held over the central plains sinks
southward on Wednesday as an upper shortwave trough and cold front
drops south  through the plains region. Gusty, southerly winds and
compressional warming ahead of the boundary will boost temps one
more time to the middle and upper 90s. Heat indices may once again
reach Heat Advisory criteria in the 100 to 106 degree range. All
CAMS signal thunderstorms developing along the boundary in the late
afternoon and early evening near the KS and NE border. Sfc inversion
is strongly capped across the area, with mid level lapse rates
steepening aft 00Z. Sfc to 6 KM bulk shear is fairly weak, however
close to the KS and NE border, peaks around 30 kts which may aid in
a few stronger updrafts capable of gusty winds.

Scattered convection lingers into Thursday over much of the CWA.
Overcast skies and northerly winds around 10 kts result in much
cooler and seasonal temps with highs in the 80s. This relief from
the heat holds through the remainder of the week as the upper ridge
builds west of the area, placing the CWA underneath northwest flow.
Conditions are mostly dry, however could see occasional
thunderstorms during the weekend time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Southeast
winds become more southerly late in the forecast period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...67



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