Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 280439
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MORNING CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND BROAD AREA OF CLOUDS AND ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER TODAY.  HOWEVER AS SOON AS THE CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES NEARING 105 AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS.  LARGE SCALE UPPER
LONGWAVE TROF CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT ACROSS THE AREA.

IN THE MEANTIME...SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES IS
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GENERATING RAIN CHANCES FROM WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA.  SOME OF THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME OVERNIGHT
STORMS WITH THIS LEADING WAVE...BEFORE THE LARGER SCALE TROF AND
SURFACE FRONT PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD SUNRISE.  MODELS DIFFER ON
SPEED AT WHICH THIS FRONT TRANSVERSES OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
OVERALL WITH BETTER ENERGY AND STRONGER DYNAMICS INITIALLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST...HAVE TIMED FRONT LATER IN THE DAY. AS A RESULT ITS
LIKELY TO GET QUITE WARM ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
AND WILL NEED ONE MORE DAY OF HEAT ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT AND MID TERM GUIDANCE PLACES THE COLD FRONT ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, BISECTING THE CWA NEAR 00Z. CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY WEAK WHILE SUPPORTIVE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING
WAVE DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIKELY CHANCES WERE INSERTED DURING THIS PERIOD WHEN THE
H85 FRONT IS REINFORCED BY THE 30 KT LLJ. A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION
TO OVERCOME APPEARS TO HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH MOST OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION BEING ELEVATED. ISOLATED UPDRAFTS MAY BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE GIVEN THE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB IS INITIALLY DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME SO NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. HEAVIER
AND PROLONGED SHOWERS HOWEVER COULD POSE A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK.

CHANCES FOR PRECIP DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY AS
SFC RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BRING HIGH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 80S. UPPER PATTERN
SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE WEAKENS TOWARDS
SOUTHERN KS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY TOWARDS THE
STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTHERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE CONVECTION COULD REACH WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES
TRAVERSE THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING
WHERE GUIDANCE IS VARYING BETWEEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH AND
THEREFORE THE TRACK OF VORTICITY MAXIMA AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES BUT BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL QUICKLY WARM FROM THE UPPER
80S INTO THE LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND MIDDLE 90S ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
STILL PINNING SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION. THIS MAY BRING MORE
STORM CHANCES AND RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THEN PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT
WIND SHIFT AT MHK AROUND 00Z AND TOP AND FOE NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD NEAR 05Z. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT MHK FOR HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME PERIOD.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ011-012-
022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...53



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