Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
169 FXUS64 KEWX 300417 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1017 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - The cold front is moving across the Hill Country with a few showers along and behind it, however, showers and thunderstorms activity is forecast to grow as it approaches the Coastal Plains after midnight Sunday. - There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms mainly for the overnight hour as the front pushes down into the Coastal Plains. Better chances for this to occur are along and east of Highway 77. - Breezy and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph (medium to high confidence) are forecast in the wake of the front and could last through midday Sunday with wind gust values down to 20 to 30 mph range for the afternoon - A cold airmass follows the frontal passage with temperatures dropping to the upper 30s, 40s, and lower 50s with wind chill values in the upper 20s and mid 30s for portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and along the I-35 Corridor from Georgetown to Austin to San Marcos to New Braunfels && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The anticipated cold front is quickly moving across the Hill Country as of 10 PM and forecast to continue to push to the southeast and exit South Central Texas overnight between 4 and 5 AM. Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible and capable of producing large hail of one in diameter and wind gusts of 60 mph. With pwats in the 1.2 to 1.5 inches based on hires guidance, a few spots could get 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with localized up to 3 inches mainly over portions of Fayette, Gonzales, Lavaca, and DeWitt Counties. In the wake of the front, a cold air mass spreads across the local area with breezy north winds and gusts of 35 to 45 mph. By daybreak, the cold air mass has spread across South Central Texas with lows in the upper 30s, 40s and lower 50s. However, the breezy north winds are forecast to help the wind chill values to reach the upper 20s and mid 30s over portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and portions of the I-35 corridor. The cold airmass stays over the local area with Sunday`s highs only reaching the mid 40s to mid 50s under cloudy skies. No rain is forecast for most of the day on Sunday, however, isolated showers and storms could return for the Coastal Plains area during the evening and overnight period as a frontal boundary sits along the middle Texas coast. Overnight/early Monday morning lows are forecast to range from the mid and upper 30s across the Hill Country to mid 40s across the Coastal Plains. A cool day is in store for South Central Texas on Monday with highs in the mid 40s over the eastern half of the local area and 50s for the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande areas. Scattered showers are forecast for areas mainly along and east of Highway 281 as abundant moisture remains over that area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 The cool air stays in place through the middle of the week with dry weather forecast for Tuesday and most of Wednesday before a second push of a cold airmass and rain chances arrive Wednesday night into Thursday. A wet pattern remains through Friday with a dry weekend and warmer temperatures in store with highs back into the mid to upper 60s and 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1004 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will be very strong, sustained at 15-25 kts, gusting to 25-35 kts from 06Z through midday Sunday (18z). Winds will take some time to subside and likely won`t drop below 10 kts until after 00Z Monday. MVFR cigs are likely overnight through day break Sunday for the I-35 Corridor terminals. For KDRT, MVFR cigs are possible for a short period overnight and then changing to VFR for the rest of the period. MVFR cigs return to the I-35 airports Sunday evening into the overnight period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 43 50 40 50 / 40 0 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 42 50 40 50 / 50 10 20 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 44 51 40 52 / 50 0 30 40 Burnet Muni Airport 39 47 38 50 / 20 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 49 54 45 61 / 10 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 40 49 39 50 / 40 0 20 30 Hondo Muni Airport 46 54 41 55 / 10 10 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 43 51 40 52 / 50 0 30 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 51 40 50 / 80 10 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 46 52 43 53 / 30 0 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 49 54 44 53 / 30 10 30 40 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...18