563
FXUS64 KEWX 071754
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1254 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains
  through much of the week.

- Humid conditions and above average temperatures will result in
  heat indices above 100.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb high over OK and a
large amplitude ridge stretching from there to the Great Lakes.
The flow over TX was from the east on the south side of the high.
A weak disturbance in this easterly flow is generating isolated
showers and thunderstorms from the TX coast to the Hill Country.
Storm coverage over our CWA is isolated at this time. This
disturbance has been weakening over the last couple of days and
convection will be dying off by late afternoon. This evening, any
last convection should be coming to an end leaving the area dry
overnight. Tuesday afternoon there will be a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms along a seabreeze over the Coastal
Plains. Temperatures will be above normal through the short term.
Highs Tuesday will be about the same as today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The strong upper ridge will continue to collapse toward the east
over the northern part of the country, but continue to control the
weather over the southern states. Southeasterly low level flow
will keep hot, moist air over South-Central Texas. There may be
some seabreeze convection each day for the rest of the week over
the Coastal Plains, but chances are low. Most of the area will be
hot and dry. Temperatures will be steady and above normal through
the week. The NBM is showing higher humidity for the middle and
latter part of the week, but it has tended to run moist in the
medium term. The forecast higher dewpoints have not been
verifying. However, if the higher dewpoints do verify we will
reach Heat Advisory criteria over the Coastal Plains and I-35
Corridor by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR skies are forecast through the period, but there is a low chance
that SAT will see a brief CIG at around 2500 ft at daybreak. Winds
are lighter than usual, so will leave out low CIGs for now. There is
a about a 5-15 percent chance of convection in the region, but
mainly the Hill Country and Coastal Prairies and well away from area
TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 100  77  99 /   0   0  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78 100  77  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76  99  76  98 /   0   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            75  97  74  96 /   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  99  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76  98 /   0   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  99  77  97 /   0  10   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  99  78  98 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78 101  78  99 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...18