626
FXUS64 KEWX 121143 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key messages:

- Flood Watch continues through the day today.

- Locally heavy rain likely along and east of Hwy 281.

An upper level trough is moving across TX tonight, and there is a
stationary front stretched over Central TX. A line of thunderstorms
is moving across the I-35 Corridor, and there are isolated cells
ahead of the line in the Coastal Plains. This convection will
continue into the start of the new forecast period. Storm movement is
slow, and they are producing high rainfall rates. Excessive rainfall
is possible. We will continue the Flood Watch over the eastern half
of the area through the day today. Additional rainfall of one to
three inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible. Showers
and storms will move away from the area tonight as the upper trough
moves off to the northeast. The low level flow will remain from the
south to southeast keeping the airmass warm and moist. A weak
shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow aloft may provide enough
lift to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day
Friday. Conditions do not look favorable for strong storms or heavy
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key messages:

- Drier weather returns.

An upper level ridge will build into West TX Friday night keeping
the weather dry over our western area. This will keep northwesterly
flow aloft over the eastern part of the CWA. The low level flow will
continue warm and moist. With daytime heating there will be low
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Saturday through
Monday over the eastern half of the area. Tuesday the upper ridge
should build far enough east to dry out the entire CWA. Then
Wednesday it will retreat back to the west allowing low rain chances
over the east again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Primary focus this morning is to hone in on the timing of lingering
storm coverage. Expecting TSRA to linger at SAT and SSF through
13-15Z followed by a quick round of MVFR mid to late morning and
early afternoon, followed by VFR and quiet weather likely for the
remainder of the day. A return to MVFR is expected tonight after 06Z
at AUS, SAT, and SSF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  74  94  76 /  60  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  73  93  76 /  70  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     88  73  93  75 /  80  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  72  91  74 /  40   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  78 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  73  92  75 /  50   0  20   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  74  95  75 /  50   0  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        87  73  93  75 /  80  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  75  90  76 /  90  20  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  76  94  77 /  70  10  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           90  76  95  78 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-
Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM