Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
917 FXUS64 KEWX 041800 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures continue through the 2nd week of October with low end (10-20%) rain chances Monday-Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The latest GOES 19 mid-level water vapor imagery shows an upper level low situated over the northern Gulf and a broad trough centered over Utah. For now, our region remains in a bit of a deadzone with not much steering flow over the southern part of the state. The short term period will be warm and dry with increased southeasterly surface flow beginning this afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s today and tomorrow, but at least the mornings will be somewhat comfortable, generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The long term period is not particularly exciting either. The UL low over the northern Gulf will weaken and push east, quickly being replaced by mid-level ridging. Increased surface moisture will result in low end rain chances at showers on Monday over the Coastal Plains and then further inland Tuesday-Thursday. A weak cold front will attempt to slide in from the northeast late Wednesday, but is unlikely to make much progress into our region. That means a return to warm and dry weather Friday-next weekend. Our drought continues to worsen due to a lack of recent rainfall since mid- August, so hopefully a pattern change is on the horizon at some point towards the middle of month. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR flying conditions will continue through today along with FEW-SCT clouds generally in the 5K-7K AGL range. Clouds will thin toward mid- evening as daytime heating decreases. For tonight into Sunday morning, we should see enough moisture toward sunrise to result in some SCT low clouds along the I-35 corridor. Farther west toward DRT, moisture levels appear a little higher in continued southeasterly upslope flow. With this in mind, we will mention some TEMPO MVFR cigs between 13-16Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 93 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 65 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 94 68 93 / 0 0 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 93 69 92 / 0 10 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 92 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 70 94 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM....MMM AVIATION...Platt