262
FXUS64 KEWX 030627
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1227 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Cold front moves through overnight through this morning, with a
  few strong to severe storms possible over the Hill Country and
  Edwards Plateau.

- A drier airmass arrives Today behind the front with cooler
  mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons expected through the
  week.

- Potential for another weak front Thursday/Friday, with a
  secondary front possible over the weekend but differences in
  timing/rain exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A cold front located just off to our northwest over SJT area is
noted when looking at visible water vapor imagery. A somewhat broken
band of strong showers and thunderstorms is also noted at the time
of this writing out ahead of this front. Models have this line
moving through our area fairly quickly from north to south. Looking
at current mesoanalysis CAPE isnt very impressive however deep layer
shear of 35 to 50 kts is noted so we could still see some of these
storms remain strong as they approach our area especially across the
northern Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. SPC has really
shrunk our severe risk with our far northernmost tier of counties
(Val Verde northeastward to Burnet) remaining in a level 1 of 5
risk. The main risks continue to be damaging winds and large hail
with the better severe threat and forcing for tornadoes located much
further north across north TX and into Oklahoma closer to where the
low is. By this morning most activity should be over the I-35
corridor and on a weakening trend with all shower and thunderstorm
activity pushing into the Coastal Plains by late morning and
eventually out of our area entirely by noon or perhaps sooner.

Regarding highs, most areas will be noticeably cooler today as
increased cloud cover during the first half of the day and rain
cooled air will keep temps about 10 degrees cooler with most staying
in the 70s as the front continues making its way through the area.
We should eventually see sunshine along with mostly sunny skies once
the front and storms that came with it move out of the area. Tonight
will be much cooler and more like fall/November with lows dropping
into the upper 40s north over the Hill Country to low to mid 50s
along and south of the I-35 Corridor. Wednesday should be the start
to a very pleasant few days of weather as highs will remain in the
low to mid 70s with relatively lower humidity than what he had the
past few days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1224 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Thursday and beyond we should continue to experience much more
pleasant weather with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s.
Though the biggest change will be the humidity as we will go from
seeing dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s prior to the arrival of the
front to seeing 50s and some upper 40s after the front. This will
certainly help things to feel more seasonable and fall like compared
to our recent stretch of summer-like weather. Global models are
hinting at another front moving over our area Thursday/Friday with
both differing on location and timing. For now have kept the
forecast largely unchanged. Another upper level trough may make its
way over our area over the weekend with an attendant cold front but
consistency and timing issues continue to remain. Right now it does
look like we could see even colder temperatures with highs
struggling to get out of the 60s with lows in the 40s possible. This
could change however so continue to check back as we get closer and
closer to this upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms are moving toward our
terminals. Ahead of this line MVFR ceilings have formed in the
Austin and San Antonio areas. DRT remains VFR, but the convection
is closest to them. Showers or thunderstorms will move into that
terminal within the next couple of hours. Showers will lower the
ceiling to MVFR. Showers will reach Austin and San Antonio by
around 09Z and last until late morning. A cold front will move
through by around sunrise turning the winds to the northwest and
improving flying conditions to VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  55  74  55 /  60   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78  53  75  52 /  70   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  54  74  55 /  80   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  52  72  55 /  20   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  55  75  58 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  51  73  53 /  50   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             79  53  76  56 /  20   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77  52  74  53 /  80   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  53  75  54 /  90   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  55  75  57 /  60   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  57  75  58 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...05