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000
FXUS64 KEWX 251652
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1152 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

A mid to upper level low is evident on water vapor satellite imagery
this morning. It is moving slowly to the west across South Texas.
The airmass over our CWA remains warm and moist with dewpoints from
the middle 60s to the lower 70s. A frontal boundary was moving
southward through the Texas Panhandle this morning. The upper low and
the surface front will continue to define our weather through the
short term period.

The upper low is expected to continue to drift toward the west
today, and some moisture advection could lead to isolated showers
and thunderstorms over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains this
afternoon. The cold front will reach our northern border early this
evening and move through the area overnight. This boundary will
generate additional showers and thunderstorms tonight and Monday.
Best chances will be over the Rio Grande Plains with lower chances
over the Hill Country. It looks like the forcing will be too weak to
produce any convection over the I-35 Corridor or Coastal Plains.

Today will be another hot day ahead of the front. Highs will be in
the lower to middle 90s across the CWA. Overnight lows will be about
same Monday morning as today. Monday`s highs will be a few degrees
lower across the north where the front passes early enough in the
day, but the southern half of the area will be quite warm again. A
noticeable change should be lower humidity as drier air moves in
behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

An upper level ridge gets re-established over our area mid to late
week, then a weak zonal flow aloft develops next weekend. An upper
level trough over the eastern states lifts soon to be Hurricane Ian
north over Florida into southeastern states. Surface high pressure
ridging persists through next weekend. A drier airmass with PWs
falling well below 1 inch, possibly as low as 1/2 inch, filters into
our area on Tuesday and remains through next weekend. The drier
airmass combined with subsidence underneath the upper level ridge
ensures no rain. High temperatures will remain above average due to
ample sunshine, though trend closer to average. Low temperatures
trend to well below average as lowering dewpoints, clear skies, and
light winds allow for efficient radiational cooling at night. Some
guidances show a few spots may reach the upper 40s in the Hill
Country to low lying areas along the I-35 part of the Escarpment,
however will go closer to the blended guidances for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

VFR conditions are prevailing across the region with some few/sct cu
beginning to develop with daytime heating. Some of this activity is
expected to build into showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this
afternoon and evening, but for the I35 sites this should primarily
west of the terminals. For DRT, some of this isolated to scattered
activity could push into the vicinity this evening and will include a
mention of VCSH for now. Otherwise, winds will be out of the south
today, but will become north/northeast tomorrow after a cold front
moves into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  73  93  62 /  10  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  72  93  60 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  71  95  61 /  10  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  69  90  61 /  20  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  71  93  64 /  20  30  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  70  92  59 /  10  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  72  95  62 /  10  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  71  94  60 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  72  94  60 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  74  94  65 /  10  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  74  96  65 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...29