676
FXUS64 KEWX 020601 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
101 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1249 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

- Increased chances for showers and storms Tuesday through Friday
  over the Coastal Plains and into portions of the I-35 Corridor
  due to Edouard`s remnants.

- Spotty heavy downpours over an inch are possible over the
  Coastal Prairies into eastern portions of Austin metro.

- Continued hot and humid weather will contribute to elevated heat
  indices in the 105-110 range through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

TS Edouard remains a compact system as it prepares for landfall
near Sabine Pass this afternoon. Wind impacts should stay
generally east of I-45 as the system continues northwest into
East TX. Mainly subsidence impacts are expected to be felt over
our South Central TX counties, but a few outer bands could form
some convection generally around Highway 77 later today and early
this evening.

By 12Z Wednesday the system should be relegated to just a
disturbance with the forecast track to follow along and just east
of I-45 toward Dallas where it is expected to disintegrate later
in the week.

Forecast rain chances could expand another row of counties deeper
into our forecast area, with a few cells, becoming possible as far
west as Austin in the afternoon as the weakening system allows for
more rain cooled outflows to push west. Hi-res models keep the
simulated reflectivity generally no farther west than Travis or
Williamson counties. Rain chances retract slightly east tonight
and Wednesday night. Storm total rains tonight through Wednesday
night should probably fall short of an inch.

Meanwhile the central and western 2/3 over the forecast area
remains hot with elevated afternoon heat index values and muggy
overnight conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The unraveling of Edouard`s remnants continues Thursday into
Friday with the lowest portions of the complex shearing apart
among the mean southerlies, while the circulation in the mid-
levels lags back to the south and broadens over Central TX. This
transition could give us our best rain chance days Thursday into
Friday with the upper ridge aloft precluding much activity from
happening overnight. Pooled Pwat values over 2 inches expand down
toward San Antonio late Thursday into Friday to get a few more
areas a shot of diurnal convection. The latest GFS runs are
trending wetter with a 500 mb weakness hanging around Central TX.
The more preferred solution among deterministic trends is the
ECMWF which fits in better with the model blends, but there could
be an increasing inverted trough extending to connect weak TUTT
upstream over the Gulf by Friday. Thus expect to see a
continuation of diurnal storms over the Coastal Prairies, but
perhaps less activity reaching the metro areas over the weekend
into early next week.

Outside of the areas with daily slight rain chances, expect days
and muggy nights continue to be in near persistence form for the
rest of the 7 day forecast. A peak beyond that time-frame has a
potential break from the upper ridge dominance about a week from
Friday with possible upper troughing developing just west over
the Rockies into northern Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. While we do expect to see some low cloud
development during the 10-14Z time frame, south to southwesterly
flow in the lower levels and shallow moisture should limit the
chance for MVFR cigs. We will continue to monitor and adjust the
forecast as needed. Some isolated afternoon convection will be
possible today, but coverage near AUS will be limited and we will
not mention in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  78  99  76 /  20  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  77  99  76 /  20  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  76  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            97  76  97  75 /  20  10  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  78  97  75 /  20  20  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport            100  76 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  77  99  75 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   99  78  98  77 /  20  20  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  78 100  77 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport          102  78 101  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....62
AVIATION...Platt