Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 260519
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1219 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

A weak upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery this
afternoon in northern Mexico. This feature is slow moving and we saw
some showers and storms over-perform yesterday afternoon and evening
with activity lasting into 10 pm. Temperatures have climbed into the
upper 80s to lower 90s and as a result we have seen a fairly
expansive cumulus field develop with the first showers of the day in
the Hill Country. The latest high-res model guidance continues to
highlight this area for the better rain chances today and will
continue to show 20 PoPs this afternoon mainly for the Hill Country
and Edwards Plateau. A lower but non-zero chance of rain is expected
for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor later this afternoon
as temperatures continue to climb.

Later this evening, a cold front will begin to approach the area.
This front should allow for continued low rain chances this evening
and tonight. Rain chances will peak around 30 percent in the west
with this activity this evening. Can`t completely rule out an
additional isolated shower or storm as the front moves through the
area but things should dry out. Lows tonight will be our last night
in the upper 60s to lower 70s for awhile at least.

Mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow, but can`t completely rule
out an isolated shower in the southwest CWA where the frontal
passage lags a bit. Otherwise, dry air will filter into the region
with dewpoints in the afternoon lowering into the 40s in the north
and 50s in the south and southwest. With highs remaining in the
lower to middle 90s, we should see humidity values drop to near 20
percent for points north of I-10. Winds will be around 10-15 mph
from the north/northeast and this could lead to the return of
elevated fire weather conditions for this region. Low temperatures
tomorrow night will be cool, ranging from the middle 50s to lower
60s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Subtropical ridging will expand across the region much of the week,
although it will weaken Thursday and Friday as Ian approaches the
eastern Gulf Coast. A relatively boring forecast will dominate the
long term period as a result, but it`ll feel great outside Tuesday
through Saturday with our first taste of some cooler mornings
followed by seasonal afternoons. Highs through the week will be in
the mid 80s to low 90s, with morning lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
A few lower-lying locations will probably dip into the lower 50s,
and perhaps even the upper 40s on a morning or two in some of the
known low spots given light to calm winds and low pwats (~0.5-0.75")
promoting strong radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2022

All area airports are currently VFR and will remain VFR through the
upcoming TAF period. A cold front is moving toward the area from the
north. This front is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms
and there is a slight chance for convection at DRT overnight, but
chances are too low to include in the TAF. The front will bring a
wind shift to the north at all sites later tonight. Winds will gust
up to 20 kts in Austin and San Antonio during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  59  93  60 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  59  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  64  89  62 /  20   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             94  59  92  62 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  58  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  63  91  64 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           95  63  92  64 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...HAMPSHIRE (29)
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...05


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