682
FXUS64 KEWX 121138
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances most areas this weekend into early next week.

- Threat of heavy rains later today through Sunday night with the
  highest chances across portions of Central Texas, including the
  Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde
  County.

- Trending drier mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Nearly seasonal average moisture levels increase to 150%+ of average
as southerly flow deepens in the lower to mid levels today. With
heating, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop late this
morning into this afternoon. At the same time, an upper level trough
drifting to the east over the Plains drags a cool front south into
northern and western portions of Texas. Forcing by the front will
generate showers and thunderstorms over those areas this afternoon
with the steering flow bringing some of them into the Hill Country,
Edwards Plateau, and Val Verde County tonight. Forcing continues for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday over most areas. HREF and CAMs
indicate isolated pockets of heavy rains this afternoon through
Sunday. However, they vary considerably with respect to the amounts
and where/when they will fall. WPC has maintained marginal to slight
(1 to 2 out of 4) risks of excessive rainfall for today through
Sunday with the highest risks across portions of Central Texas,
including the Austin metro, the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and
Val Verde County. Later forecasts may have to issue a Flood Watch
if confidence increases regarding the specifics of the heavy rains.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, however, gusty winds are
possible with the collapse of any thunderstorms. Temperatures will be
within a few degrees of, though slightly below mid July averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Part of the Plains trough drops southwest into a shear axis over
western Texas early next week. The highest chances of showers and
thunderstorms shift to the western Hill Country, Edwards Plateau and
Rio Grande Plains where the greatest moisture levels and forcing is
forecast. However, the seabreeze should generate some showers and
thunderstorms from the Coastal Plains to near I-35. The shear axis
gradually shifts to the west as the Subtropical Ridge builds in from
the east. Rain chances end most areas, though linger across portions
of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains mid week. Seabreeze
showers and thunderstorms may return by next weekend to near the
Coastal Plains. As the airmass, soils, and vegetation dry, a warming
trend is expected, though temperatures will remain within a few
degrees of average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025
MVFR cigs across all area terminals for the next 3 to 4 hours or 16Z
as the latest. Then, VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening
periods. There are chances for rain and storm activity across KAUS
this afternoon and kept the PROB30 for thunderstorms (20Z/24Z). Also,
storm activity is forecast to affect KDRT in the evening and decided
to add a PROB30 group from 03Z through 06Z Sunday. MVFR cigs return
across all area airports by 07Z Sunday. A southeasterly flow of 11 to
18 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots is forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  75  94  76 /  30  20  30  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  75  93  75 /  40  20  40  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  75  94  74 /  20  10  30  10
Burnet Muni Airport            91  73  89  73 /  40  30  40  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  77  95  77 /  10  20  20  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        93  74  92  74 /  40  20  40  20
Hondo Muni Airport             93  75  94  74 /  10  10  30  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  75  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  75  92  75 /  40  10  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       93  77  94  76 /  20  10  30  10
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  96  76 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for
Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Kinney-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...17