739
FXUS64 KEWX 241142
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Key messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and heat index values

- Low chances of rain each day Coastal Plains to I-35 corridor

A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) currently seen over the
northwestern Gulf drifts over southern Texas/northern Mexico today
and Wednesday. This increases moisture levels (PWs) to about 150
percent of seasonal levels. It also enhances forcing from heating
and seabreeze. As a result, low chances of showers and thunderstorms
will extend from the Coastal Plains in the morning to the I-35
corridor in the afternoon into early evening. Cannot rule out a few
showers and a thunderstorm or two during the early evening over the
eastern Hill Country and Winter Garden. With little or no changes to
the lower level thermal ridge, temperatures and heat index values
remain close to late June averages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Key messages:

- Seasonable temperatures and heat index values

- Low chances of rain mainly Coastal Plains to, at times, the I-35
  corridor

The TUTT weakens and moves off to the west as the Subtropical Ridge
becomes more dominant later this week into the weekend. PWs decrease
with forcing from heating and seabreeze causing the low chances of
showers and thunderstorms to retreat to near the Coastal Plains each
afternoon. The Ridge weakens later in the weekend into next week
with possible TUTT or easterly waves moving across with an increase
in PWs. The low chances of showers and thunderstorms spread west to
near the I-35 corridor. Little or no changes continue in the lower
level thermal ridging keeping temperatures and heat index values
close to average to finish out June.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

We have scaled back expected MVFR conditions at AUS into a TEMPO
group as clouds have mainly developed near the escarpment. Farther
south at SAT, we did keep a TEMPO group for IFR, with low end MVFR at
SSF. Based on recent trends, we also pulled back to a TEMPO group at
DRT for some brief MVFR clouds this morning. Otherwise, expect gusty
southeast winds today along with some afternoon convection from the
coastal plains to near I-35. With only isolated coverage, we will not
mention in the forecast for the I-35 sites. Low clouds look to return
to our TAF sites early Wednesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  74  94  75 /  10  10  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  74  93  73 /  20  10  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  72  91  73 /  20  10  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  72  91  72 /  10  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  76  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  72  93  73 /  10  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             92  72  91  72 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  72  92  73 /  20  10  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  73  91  73 /  20   0  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  74  91  74 /  20  10  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           93  75  93  75 /  20   0  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...Platt