Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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892
FXUS64 KEWX 112335
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

.AVIATION...
Summer persistence forecast for the TAFs with southerly flow in place
at the low levels. VFR skies with winds decreasing this evening will
give way to mostly MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning across South
Central Texas. Have introduced a SCT IFR deck into the I-35 sites.
There could be a brief window, especially between 07z and 09z or 12z
and 14z where these trio of terminals could briefly see IFR ceilings
build in. Lack of confidence in the timing and overall coverage
prevented a prevailing IFR ceiling with this TAF package.
Additionally, at DRT basically all of the models keep the terminal
VFR through the overnight hours, but have stuck with persistence and
included a brief MVFR window there. By 18z on Saturday expect all
terminals to once again be VFR with southerly or southeasterly winds,
gusty at times, especially at DRT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
24 hour temperature differences across south central Texas show
little change from yesterday, except out west along the Rio Grande.
Clouds have managed to clear earlier today vs. yesterday along the
Rio Grande, so temperatures are running warmer. We are still on
track to see afternoon high temperatures near 100 along the Rio
Grande, with 90s for the remainder of the region. It will be warm
and humid once again tonight, with low clouds developing over most
areas early Saturday morning. Look for lows in the 70s, with near 80
along the Rio Grande. Continue warm and humid on Saturday and
Saturday night with highs in the lower 100s along the Rio Grande,
with 90s elsewhere. We will go with more of a persistence forecast
for overnight lows Saturday night, with 70s to near 80 for all
areas.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The summertime pattern will remain in place Sunday with little change
for South Central Texas. Monday the upper level ridge will begin to
shift a bit to the west and allow a weak cold front to slide down
into East Texas. This front will stall in that area for much of next
week. This will mean low chances for showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon for eastern parts of our CWA. Most of the region will
continue to have dry weather. The reduced subsidence will mean
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler dropping to near or below
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  74  94  74  97 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  74  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            92  73  93  72  96 /   0   0   0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78 101  77 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  73  93  74  95 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             95  73  96  73  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  74  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  76  95  75  96 /  -    0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  74  95  73  97 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           96  75  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...Morris
Decision Support...KCW



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