242
FXUS64 KEWX 140548
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1248 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- New Daily/Monthly High Temperature Records Expected

- Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for much of south central Texas
on Wednesday. Heat Advisory also remains in effect for Today through
Wednesday

Early afternoon temperatures range from the lower 90s to near 103
degrees. With high clouds clearing from west to east, dry air and
southwesterly winds, afternoon temperatures are still expected to
rise to at or above 100 degrees for most of the region. The
exception will be near the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor
where upper 90s are forecast. Temperatures will be warmest along the
Rio Grande, where near 110 is in the forecast. The current Heat
Advisory appears to be on track and no changes have been made for
the heat headlines in effect today. Southerly flow in the lower-
levels is expected to gradually return overnight. This will lead to
warmer overnight lows mainly in the 70s. We could see some brief
morning low clouds and patchy fog from the coastal plains northward
into the I-35 corridor. However, will not mention fog in the
forecast just yet as it appears winds may be elevated enough to
limit fog development.

On Wednesday, temperatures will be set to warm even higher than what
we anticipate today. The continued strengthening of the low-level
thermal ridge will lead to highs at or above 100 degrees for the
vast majority of south central Texas. While we could see some high
clouds move across the region, we do not anticipate these clouds to
have an impact on our high temperatures. Given the latest guidance
and the early season occurrence, we have opted to upgrade the Heat
Advisory to an Extreme Heat Warning across most of south central
Texas on Wednesday. The exception will be for portions of the
coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor where this area remains in a
Heat Advisory. Afternoon highs will peak near 115 degrees along the
Rio Grande, 104-108 for the Hill Country and I-35 corridor and near
100 elsewhere.

Due to unseasonably hot nature of these conditions, take
precautions. Drink plenty of fluids, wear light weight and light
colored clothing, take frequent rest breaks in shaded or air
conditioned environments, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Key Messages:

- Major risk of heat-related impacts Thursday and Friday
- Elevated daily maximum temperatures over the weekend into
  early next week
- Elevated to near critical fire weather Wednesday through the
  weekend

The heat continues on Thursday with some areas reaching Heat
Advisory with isolated Extreme Heat Warning values. New Heat
Advisories and/or Extreme Heat Warnings are likely issued on
Wednesday afternoon for future weather periods.

It may sound like a broken record in the middle of May, however,
this heat wave remains affecting our local area through the weekend
and honestly through next Tuesday. Increased moisture likely helps
temperatures not to be so elevated, but 70s dewpoint temperatures
are expected to bring heat indexes into Heat Advisory levels through
the extended forecast period. There is a cold front expected to
arrive next Wednesday to cool things down.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Wednesday evening.
Lower level profiles show moisture quality for some IFR/MVFR CIGs
late tonight into early morning. However, expect it will remain
sufficiently mixed to go with SCT. Will monitor for later mention of
CIGs. S to SE winds 5 to 10 KTs prevail overnight into morning, then
increase to 10 to 15 KTs by midday with a few gusts to 24 KTs
possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue May 13 2025

The other thing to speak about for the next several days is fire
weather concerns across the local area. Elevated to near critical
fire weather conditions are forecasted from Wednesday through Sunday
as minimum relative humidity values range from the single digits
along the Rio Grande Plains to mid 20s along and west of Highway 281.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT TUE May 13 2025

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
(* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN)

         TUE       WED       THU       FRI       SAT
        05/13     05/14     05/15     05/16     05/17
------------------------------------------------------
AUS    94/1967*  96/2003   96/2003   97/2018*  97/2018
ATT    98/1925   97/2022   98/1925   99/2022*  99/2022
SAT    98/2009*  97/2022*  98/2022   97/2022* 100/2022
DRT   104/1995  103/2003  102/2022  107/2013  105/2013

RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MAY
-------------------------------
AUS   102 ... set on 05/07/1998
ATT   104 ... set on 05/24/1925
SAT   104 ... set on 05/31/2004
DRT   112 ... set on 05/26/2024

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72 100  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71 101  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71 102  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  98  73  96 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 106  76 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  99  74  97 /   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73 103  73 102 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70 101  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  97  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74 103  75 100 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72 105  76 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-
Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-
Zavala.

Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-
Comal-Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for
De Witt-Fayette-Lavaca-Lee.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...CJM
Aviation...04