Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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000
FXUS64 KEWX 152356 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
656 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers and storms continue across the region and based on
recent radar trends, we will mention a TEMPO group for TSRA at SAT
through 01Z. Otherwise, we expect convection to dissipate within the
next 1-2 hours. We will keep the forecast VFR along with light
southeast to east winds through the overnight hours. A few showers or
storms may develop tomorrow afternoon, but current trends show this
activity will remain near the coastal plains.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Latest visible imagery are showing increased cloud coverage and more
depth than an hour ago. Also, Doppler radar is detecting moderate to
localized heavy showers associated with those cells showing vertical
extend. This activity is moving to the southwest as the mean flow is
from the northeast. Scattered showers and even isolated
thunderstorms are expected across the area for the rest of this
afternoon and early evening. These showers and storms will move
quickly across the affected areas, however, a quick one tenth to one
quarter inch of rainfall can`t be ruled out. There is the potential
for a few strong to severe storms mainly along and east of Highway
183 later this afternoon with main hazard being thunderstorm
damaging winds of 60 mph or so. Once sunset comes around, the
activity should come to an end or shortly after.

Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight into Wednesday morning with
lows in the upper 60s across the Hill Country to mid 70s across
parts of the I-35 corridor and the southwest counties of the local
area.

On Wednesday expect highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area.
It looks drier with only slight chance for rain across the far
southeast and Coastal Plains area. The wind shifts to a more
easterly flow across the area with speeds of 5 to 10 mph.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

The end of the workweek and into the start of the upcoming weekend
looks to remain fairly inactive across South-Central Texas as the
region is anticipated to remain on the dry and subsident side of a
tropical area of low pressure that advances northward across the
western Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center with the
latest outlook gives the feature a 80 percent chance of tropical
development over the next 5 days. Model guidance continue to show
signal that the system will likely be lopsided with the greatest
rainfall and winds on its northern and eastern flank. While it does
remain still a little too early to pinpoint where impacts and/or
where the storm may move inland, its most likely to remain to the
east of our region. With the lack of any other meaningful synoptic
or mesoscale feature, expect continued hot conditions where the
afternoon highs run near or slightly above climatological average
under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The forecast remains
mainly rain free across the region besides some occasional slight
chances for showers and/or thunderstorms across the eastern-
southeastern counties, focused generally in the coastal plains.

The hottest conditions throughout the long term are expected to
occur Sunday into Monday as the 850 mb temperatures increase with
the 500 mb flow becoming more north-northwesterly with also some
subtle height increases following the wake of the tropical low as
that feature accelerates east-northeastward as it feels influence
from a passing shortwave moving across the midwest. Expect for
conditions to approach and/or even exceed heat advisory criteria,
especially Monday, with peak heat indices of between 105 to 110
degrees. A few locales may even exceed 110 degrees at times. Rain
free conditions generally continue with any mentionable chances
across the far southeastern counties.

At the very end of the long term period into the middle of next
week, despite notable model differences regarding the mid-level
pattern, there is a signal for potential rainfall across South-
Central Texas. Given the large uncertainty, I will keep near the
National Blend of Models (NBM) output that indicates generally
seasonable temperatures and POPs of around 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  97  74  95  73 /  -   -    0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  96  73  95  73 /  -   -    0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  97  72  96  72 /  10  -    0  -    0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  96  72  95  72 /   0   0   0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  99  75  99  75 /  10  -    0  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  96  72  95  73 /  -    0   0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  96  72  95  72 /  10  10   0  -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  97  72  96  72 /  10  -    0  -    0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  97  74  96  73 /  20  -   -   10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  96  74  95  73 /  10  10   0  -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  97  75  96  74 /  20  10   0  -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks


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