Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 011723
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Weak ridging aloft and dry low levels will continue through the
short term forecast with clear skies today and this evening. Cirrus,
associated with what is forecast to become Hurricane Orlene in the
eastern Pacific, is expected to stream into the region from the
southwest overnight and Sunday morning, potentially thickening
Sunday afternoon. Relatively large diurnal swing in temperature
continues today, with below average lows and near average highs.
Sunday`s highs are forecast to be slightly cooler than today given
the increasing high clouds. Continued low afternoon relative
humidity will lead to elevated fire weather conditions today and
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

Synopsis: Ensemble guidance remains largely unchanged regarding the
evolution of the early week mid and upper level pattern. A mid level
ridge axis, bounded by cutoff lows on its eastern and western
peripheries, will be entrenched from the Big Bend through the
western Great Lakes at the beginning of the period. The National
Hurricane Center continues to forecast an early Monday landfall of
Orlene along the north-central Mexican Pacific/Gulf of California
coastline. Becoming sheared off in a weak, westerly subtropical jet
streak positioned over northern Mexico, the disturbance will quickly
dissipate over the Sierra Madre Mountains. Due to the aforementioned
jet streak, upper level moisture and attendant cloud coverage
affiliated with Orlene`s outflow will advect across the region from
Sunday through the beginning of the week. Prompted by the
amplification of an expansive area of height rises over western North
America, the early period Big Bend-Great Lakes ridge axis will break
down through the middle portions of the week. Flow evolution during
and after break down remains a source of uncertainty as of this
forecast package, with Canadian and ECMWF ensembles developing a
closed low over northern Mexico and southern AZ/NM through the end of
the week. Sensible weather impacts could be felt across the western
CWA should these solutions verify. A cold front will concurrently be
pushing into the southern Plains and southeastern CONUS through this
portion of the long term. While it appears likely that the boundary
will reach the Red River Valley through Thursday, its southernmost
progress stands as another unknown in this forecast.

Monday: Expect Monday to be the most comfortable day of the work
week. Despite broken mid to upper level clouds connected to Orlene`s
outflow, east to northeast surface winds will continue to keep dew
points down across the region. Highs should range from the low-mid
80s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains to
the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. No precipitation is anticipated.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Responding to the cold front described in
the synopsis, winds will begin to turn east to southeast through
this portion of the period. Dew points will thus begin to creep up
each afternoon, with 50s to low 60s dew points becoming commonplace
in the Coastal Plains, Rio Grande Plains, and Interstate 35 corridor
by late Wednesday. Overnight lows will tick noticeably upward as a
result, with most regions bottoming out in the upper 50s and 60s
each night.

Thursday and Friday: The most notable changes to the long term
forecast reside in this timeframe. Have leaned into the synoptic
pictures depicted by the Canadian and Euro ensembles in this
package, and have introduced slight chance shower and thunder probs
over the far western Rio Grande Plains each afternoon. Overall
confidence remains low considering the remaining spread in ensemble
solutions, and the forecast could trend drier in the coming days if
cutoff low formation becomes less favored in the guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2022

VFR conditions are expected across area terminals through the
forecast period. Light east winds are forecast for the I-35 airports through
late this evening and then becoming light and variable overnight. For
KDRT, a southeasterly flow of 8 to 12 knots with occasionally higher
gusts are expected for this afternoon. A more easterly flow is then
expected tonight into Sunday morning for the KDRT area. Scattered to
BKN high cloud deck is forecast to push across the area tonight into
Sunday associated with Hurricane Orlene as it moves closer to the
west central eastern Pacific coast of Mexico. By Sunday afternoon,
light easterly winds are expected for the I-35 sites and a light
southeast flow is expected for KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              56  88  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  88  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  87  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  86  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             60  87  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  86  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           60  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...17


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