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000
FXUS64 KEWX 132347
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

.AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/
As the surface pressure gradient contines to remain weak, VFR skies
are now forecast for the entire TAF periods. Winds could be shifty in
the daytime for Monday as a weak disturbance is forecast to pass
southwest across the Hill Country. There there is a small chance an
isolated storm or two could develop and create some gusty outflows in
the late afternoon or evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
Another round of warm afternoon temperatures is ongoing across south
central Texas. We should see highs in the lower 90s in the Hill
Country, mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor, with lower 100s
out west along the Rio Grande. The vast majority of south central
Texas will also remain precipitation free. However, we will maintain
a 20% chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across southern
portions of Lavaca and DeWitt counties this afternoon. A remnant MCV
moving into an axis of higher moisture may help initiate some
isolated convection this afternoon. Any convection that manages to
develop should decrease by mid-evening with the loss of daytime
heating. For tonight, look for more warm and humid conditions with
lows in the 70s.

It will be warm again on Monday with highs ranging from the lower
90s in the Hill Country to lower 100s along the Rio Grande. While
most areas are expected to remain dry, we will need to monitor for
the possibility of a remnant MCV moving down in the north-
northeasterly flow aloft. As of now, it looks like the higher rain
chances should remain locked up over west central Texas. However, we
will certainly need to monitor and may need to add some showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast across the Hill Country and southern
Edwards Plateau Monday afternoon. We will keep a low chance (20%)
for showers and storms in the forecast for areas along the Highway
77 corridor Monday afternoon given higher moisture levels in this
area.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
It`s getting hard to come up with new ways of describing this
forecast. The upper ridge will continue to sit over Texas through the
middle of the week with a shift to the west later. Models also
continue to show a front sliding down the eastern side of the ridge
into East Texas. They have come in a little drier for our CWA. We
will keep a slight chance for convection over the southeast each
afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday then go dry again for the end of the
work week. Some deeper moisture will move in over next weekend with
the possibility of showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. NHC
has an area in the Bay of Campeche with a chance for cyclone
development later this week. Models have not settled on a solution
yet, but do keep things east of us.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  96  75  95  73 /   0  -   -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  75  95  71 /   0  -   -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  96  75  95  73 /   0  -   -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            73  95  73  94  71 /   0  -    0  -    0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 102  78  99  77 /   0  -   -   -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  95  74  93  71 /   0  -    0  -    0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  75  95  72 /   0   0  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  96  75  95  72 /   0  -   -   10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  96  77  95  74 /   0  20  -   20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  76  95  74 /   0  -   -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  77  97  75 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...Treadway
Decision Support...KCW