224
FXUS64 KEWX 200604
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
104 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Key messages:

- Seasonable temperatures continue

- Low (10-30%) rain/storm chances for Today/Friday and again for
  middle of next week, focused in southern and eastern portions of
  the region

Mid-level ridging is on the move but currently is centered across
New Mexico and the Texas panhandle. Otherwise, the far outer upper
level cloud pattern from Hurricane Erick was able to extend into
South Texas. Latest satellite imagery shows cumulus cloud streaks
over our region, resulting in a partly sunny to partly cloudy sky.
Within these cloud streaks, some isolated low topped showers have
been able to establish for locations mainly along and to the south
of the I-10 and US highway 90 corridor. Mesoanalysis indicates the
PWATs were a tad higher than short term guidance had previously
forecast for entering this morning. The sea breeze later today may
help spark some additional activity as well. There could be a few
lightning strikes with the afternoon heating. Any activity then
declines after sunset. With all of this said, most locations will
still remain dry and rain free.

Friday looks to trend similar as today with isolated activity that
favors our southern and eastern most areas with streamer showers
and sea breeze development. Most locations again will stay rain
free. The weekend into Monday looks to trend as the driest stretch
through the period as a little more concentrated plume of Saharan
Dust arrives and brings in lower PWATs over the region. The middle
of next week will see the rain/storm chances gradually rise over
areas along and east of the I-35 corridor as the PWATs do rise
slightly once that plume of Saharan Dust disperses.

Little variation in the temperature department is expected through
the upcoming week with seasonable conditions. The afternoon highs
are to remain in the low to mid 90s across most locations while
overnight lows stay in the low to mid 70s. Portions of the Rio
Grande could occasionally near or top 100 degrees through the week
ahead. Heat indices will generally peak each afternoon in the mid
90s to around 105 degrees. Winds will feature light to moderate
southeast to east-southeasterly breezes through the period.

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Surface to H7 ridging over the northern Gulf has set up a fairly
uniform E-W pressure gradient over South-central TX for tonight. A 20
to 30 knot low level exists over the area with slightly higher winds
over DRT. With few high clouds or nearby perturbations to influence
the winds and clouds, a mid June persistence pattern of low clouds
forming around midnight and breaking up by midday is continued with
mainly 1000-2000 ft cigs predawn and 2000 to 3000 ft cigs prevailing
after sunrise. As usual, the onset of lower cigs is appearing fastest
at SAT, then SSF, and slowest at DRT with AUS just behind the SSF
timing. Cigs formed by 09Z at DRT as the low atmosphere winds are a
little more onshore than normal. The winds will trend a little more
to due south over the next day, so will push the cloud arrival to 10Z
there. Friday night/Saturday morning winds may continue more
southerly, leading to a slightly later arrival of low clouds at all
sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  96  76  96 /   0  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  95  75  95 /   0  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  74  95 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  97  76  96 /  10   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  92  74  93 /  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  74  95 /   0  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  75  93 /   0  10   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  93  76  94 /  10  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  94  76  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...18