182
FXUS64 KEWX 070546
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy
  rains continues through this evening. The Flood Watch for the
  Hill Country and I-35 Corridor remains in effect until 10 PM
  CDT.

- Rain chances continue on Monday and Tuesday.

- Eventually trending seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

We have let the Flood Watch expire at 10 PM CDT. Models show some
redevelopment over the Hill Country to I-35 corridor toward Monday
morning, however differ significantly regarding rainfall amounts.
There is a potential for another Flood Watch to be issued in later
forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass, with PWs of 1.7 to
2.4 inches, remain in place over our area. We`re seeing showers
and thunderstorms develop across the CWA and expect this to
continue until this evening. With the high PW and slow cell
motion, locally heavy rain will be possible. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches possible. This rain will aggravate
ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are
saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rain is
expected over the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor. The
MCV will weaken some by Monday with only a slight decrease in
moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less focused and
have only slight chances on Monday. The clouds and rain areas
will keep daytime temperatures below to well below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The mid level feature will be replaced by an inverted trough
moving onto the Texas coast Tuesday keeping moisture levels
elevated. The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of
the last several model runs and indicates low chances of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday
afternoon. This will spread from the Coastal Plains to the Hill
Country. The blended model solution shows the subtropical ridge
building over the region over the latter part of the week
bringing dry and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Analyzing recent radar trends decided to add PROB30s from now until
09Z for KAUS and 07Z to 10Z for KSAT and 08Z to 11Z for KSSF to
account for uncertainty with extent of -TSRA timing early this
morning. Any storm that forms would bring extreme rainfall rates and
a reduction in visibilities. Have kept vicinity showers into the
overnight hours with MVFR ceilings returning by 9-10Z this morning
and sticking around through late morning. VFR conditions look to
return in the afternoon. There is a possibility for -RA/-TSRAs to
develop in the afternoon over KAUS but kept mention out of this
forecast due to low confidence. For KDRT expect VFR conditions with
no precip to continue with MVFR conditions possible after 11Z with
VFR CIGs returning by 22Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  74  94  74 /  30  10  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  74  92  74 /  30  10  20  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  73  92  72 /  30  10  20  10
Burnet Muni Airport            88  72  90  72 /  50  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           94  76  95  76 /  20  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  74  91  73 /  40  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             91  73  90  72 /  30  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  93  72 /  30  10  20  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  75  92  74 /  40  10  40  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  75  91  75 /  30  10  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           94  75  93  74 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-
Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Edwards-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-Kendall-Kerr-
Lee-Llano-Medina-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...04
Aviation...CJM