Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 250925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

The above average temperatures across South-Central Texas become
even more anomalous through the short term with continued light to
moderate southerly winds off the Gulf. This southerly flow will
continue to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere. Some patchy
low clouds are possible this morning but expect for more expansive
low stratus to establish from overnight tonight through Monday
morning. Additionally, fog becomes more favored, especially for
locations near and east of the I-35 corridor. For this afternoon,
anticipate mostly sunny skies with a few occasional high clouds at
times. Monday favors a partly to mostly cloudy sky with a mix of some
fair weather cumulus as the low stratus lifts and thickening high
level cloud cover.

Daytime highs for the majority will be in the 80s today and Monday
but locations towards the Rio Grande and to the north near Llano
county likely top into the low to mid 90s, especially Monday. The
driest air in the afternoons will be across those areas. Overnight
lows tonight into Monday morning bottom out in the 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 219 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

The above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday across all of south
central Texas. Southerly winds remain intact for most areas and this
will keep plenty of low-level moisture in place along with partly to
mostly cloudy skies. The dryline will mix eastward during the
afternoon hours and will manage to bring some dry air and a westerly
wind shift to portions of northern Val Verde and possibly Edwards
county. The warmest temperatures will once again be out west along
the Rio Grande with lower and mid 90s in the forecast. Farther east,
highs will peak in the 80s.

A change in the weather pattern arrives on Wednesday as a cold front
moves in from the north. The timing of the front will certainly
impact the high temperature forecast on Wednesday, with some areas
across the Hill Country likely seeing highs (lower 60s) occur early
in the day with steady or falling temperatures in the afternoon.
Farther south, highs in the 70s and 80s will occur with the warmest
readings expected in the coastal plains and Rio Grande plains. The
ECMWF is generally faster than the other models and if this trend
continues, we may need to lower our expected high temperatures on
Wednesday. While we will see a fairly active southwest flow aloft
pattern in place on Wednesday, rain chances do not appear favorable
at this time. Rain chances will be a little higher (30%) across
western Val Verde county where the front will encounter early
afternoon heating and slightly better large-scale forcing. The
models have trended drier behind the frontal boundary for Wednesday
night into Thursday farther east into the Hill Country and portions
of the I-35 corridor. Suspect any rainfall amounts will be very
light given the amount of dry air (dewpoints teens and 20s) in the
low-levels behind the front. Highs on Thursday will be some 5 to 10
degrees below normal, with most areas peaking in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Southerly flow and moisture return leads to a quick rebound of
temperatures on Friday, with highs back closer to climatological
normals. The warming trend continues on Saturday with highs back into
the lower 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024

VFR conditions will likely prevail at all terminals through the next
TAF period. There is about a 30% chance for MVFR ceilings Sunday
morning in the San Antonio area. Southeasterly winds will continue
with speeds generally 10 kts or less overnight. Wind speeds will
increase during the day Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  61  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  60  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            84  58  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  59  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        83  60  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             84  56  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        81  59  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   80  61  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  59  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...Brady


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