667
FXUS64 KEWX 260538
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1238 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Current radar data shows isolated to scattered convection ongoing
from the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. We
are seeing some gradual clearing take place along the I-35 corridor
and with additional heating, should see more convection develop this
afternoon. A few spots could pick up some locally heavy rainfall
given above normal moisture levels and slow-moving showers and
storms. With the loss of daytime heating, shower and storms are
expected to gradually dissipate this evening over the Hill Country
and I-35 corridor. However, for the overnight hours into Friday
morning, the models suggest an increase in convection for areas east
of I-35 as some weak upper level disturbances move northward along
the Texas coast. A fairly similar weather pattern remains intact on
Friday and this should result in another decent shot for some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the
region. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rio Grande plains will be
farthest removed from the convection, so most of this region looks
to remain dry through Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the
low/mid 90s along the Rio Grande to the mid and upper 80s farther
east into the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024

The primary disturbance embedded within the trough axis will be
expected to lift northward across the Midwest through the weekend.
However, there will still remain some strung out mid-level energy
across our region. This combined with continued elevated PWATs
should help promote fairly healthy rain chances this weekend. The
latest guidance indicates that Sunday could trend slightly more
active compared to Saturday as the swath of the highest PWATs
advances a bit farther inland. Locally heavy rainfall could be
possible and isolated flooding concerns could remain across those
locations that have seen higher totals over the past several days.
Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight portions of the
region underneath a level 1 of 4 risk in the excessive rainfall
outlook through 12Z Monday. The temperatures should otherwise
continue to run slightly below average, especially those daytime
highs.

500 mb heights gradually rise entering next week before the upper
level riding starts to amplify from the Desert Southwest through
Texas by midweek. Outside from an isolated sea breeze shower or
storm in the coastal plains Monday and Tuesday, rain chances are
expected to generally shut off across the region. Otherwise, do
expect the return of the summer heat with rising afternoon high
temperatures and peak heat indices. Given elevated soil moisture
from this unusually wet July stretch, we`ll closely monitor the
surface dew points and peak heat indices for the need of any
potential heat products next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Satellite imagery at 05Z indicated patchy stratus has developed
across portions of the eastern Hill Country as well as just south of
San Antonio. The stratus is forecast to expand in coverage overnight
and early Friday morning across some portions of the Hill Country
and near and east of I-35 and I-37 corridors. A mix of IFR and MVFR
ceilings area forecast. The stratus is forecast to become scattered
around midday Friday. Isolated SHRA are possible early morning across
the Coastal Plains, becoming widely scattered near the I-35 corridor
and across the Coastal Plains in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              87  72  89  73 /  40  20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  71  87  72 /  40  30  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     87  73  88  73 /  40  30  40  40
Burnet Muni Airport            86  71  88  72 /  30  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           97  76  96  76 /  10   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  71  87  71 /  30  20  30  20
Hondo Muni Airport             89  72  90  73 /  30  20  40  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  87  71 /  40  30  40  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  73  85  73 /  50  40  60  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  74  89  74 /  40  30  40  30
Stinson Muni Airport           89  74  90  75 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76